james22

https://archive.ph/9h450

Only evidence of how early we are:

I believe we are still pretty early. But I found it easier to believe that than to actually shift the 10% I did recently into tech (mostly because optimism looks dumb). Re-reading a couple articles I've saved over time helped. Perhaps a couple broader lessons I've learned: first, to try to do a better job of overcoming my natural aversion to ideas that are popular. One of the mental blocks for me was - "if everyone loves this so much, how can it still be a great value?" Going forward, I'm trying to do a better job of focusing more on an idea's merits and tuning out who likes or doesn't like it. Second, and similarly, I've realized that it's internally inconsistent to A) believe that I have no edge in interpreting near-term price action, and B) prefer buying securities that have fallen over the near to medium-term past than securities that have skyrocketed. As with the previous item, I'm now trying to focus more on the "signal" - i.e. the idea's fundamental merits - and less on the "noise" - i.e. whether it's recently up, down, or sideways. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229722-small-cap-bear-next Winning in the investing game isn’t simply about having true prior beliefs about the world. It’s also about efficiently updating those beliefs in response to feedback from reality. https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/09/pmbtdo/ We could be in the midst of the first fear-based investment bubble in American history, with the masses buying in not out of avarice, but from a mentality of abject terror. Robots, software and automation, owned by Capital, are notching new victories over Labor at an ever accelerating rate. It’s gone parabolic in recent years – every industry, every region of the country, and all over the world. It’s thrilling to be a part of if you’re an owner of the robots, the software and the automation. If you’re a part of the capital side of that equation. If you’re on the other side, however – the losing side – it’s a horror movie in slow motion. The only way out? Invest in your own destruction. In this context, the FANG stocks are not a gimmick or a fad, they’re a f***ing life raft. Market commentators rhetorically ask aloud what multiple should investors pay to own the technology giants. That’s the wrong question when people feel like they’re drowning. What multiple would you pay to survive? Grab a raft. https://thereformedbroker.com/2017/10/16/just-own-the-damn-robots/ There's a very good reason why growth is killing value, because reversion of the mean is not working for a lot of value industries. That's a classic value technique: You buy a retailer or another cyclical stock that's down on its luck and figure things will turn around. Historically, that's how it worked. But, of course, if Amazon or Google is eating your lunch, that's not how it's working today, and that money just might not be coming back. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/929002/kinnel-3-closing-thoughts-from-the-conference To be a good equity investor, I think you have to be an optimist. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/something-of-value.pdf

Early, late? Not a bubble? Not comparable?

The old joke is that fusion is always 30 years away and has been for the last 30 years. Except now it's not. ... for the first time ever, the development of fusion energy technology is happening in the private sector on a fairly large scale. And there’s multiple well-funded entrepreneurial ventures pursuing this really in parallel with government efforts as well. ... multiple groups are going to achieve the scientific goal of energy breakeven by 2030. https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/technology-turning#disqus_thread

My Magic 8 Ball replies: Most likely (doubled in size) and Very doubtful (dividend paying).

I've made my share of mistakes, but I'm very appreciative now that I'm retired that I placed in taxable account only non-dividend paying, long-term holdings (BRK, MKL, etc.). Makes a real difference.

Just curious - why wouldn't you hold all your BRK in your personal account?

Took 5% from SV and created a 5% position in Vanguard's Information Technology fund (VITAX). Late to the runup, but the chances of an AI bubble seem (just) likely enough. And an index fund seems more likely to capture one of the few AI "superstocks" than any I'd pick. http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/900/15st.htm

We know that Putin is stacking his inner circle with sycophants for quite some time. ... The two personalities that matter the most, the first one is the Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, who is arguably the most incompetent person in the Russian government right now. And he’s obviously in charge of the broader battle plan and the entire defense industry. And we now know that Shoigu has probably stolen personally one-third of the Russian budget that was appropriated for defense equipment manufacturer over the last several years, and probably one-third of a second third was stolen by his underlings. So whenever you see the Russians just not having enough equipment to do anything meaningful, it’s probably his fault. And he’s the one in charge of the battle plan, and he’s the one who indicated there were going to be a lot more weapons shipments. The second defense official, who arguably rivals Shoigu with his military incompetence, is the guy who runs the Wagner Group, Dmitry Rogozin. This guy was literally a caterer until a few years ago and then got a little bit of money from the Russian government in order to build up this parallel military group that we know as Wagner that would go around the world hiring itself as mercenaries and committing war crimes when the local governments didn’t want to. That doesn’t mean he can’t run a paramilitary organization, but it means he has no experience either managing or leading or participating in a military operation himself. https://zeihan.com/ukraine-war-qa-series-what-happened-to-the-500k-russian-soldiers/ LOL

Is nuclear fusion going to arrive way sooner than expected? Microsoft thinks it might be a 2020s thing. https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/is-nuclear-fusion-going-to-arrive?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=232077&post_id=120547483&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email

https://www.curbed.com/2023/05/san-francisco-doom-loop.html

How passive are you if you time and tilt your index funds?

- ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington, D.C.-based research firm, thinks the [energy] insurance program bill has a good chance of passing the state House. - Building out 10 gigawatts—the upper limit of what the bill envisions—would cost about $18 billion, according to a recent estimate from the Lower Colorado River Authority, a nonprofit public utility with headquarters in Austin, Texas. - Such plants would earn a regulated rate of return on equity—with a ceiling of 10% a year—whether they end up being used or not. Nice work if you can get it.

Makes it far more risky than a three stock portfolio.

William Bernstein: "When you've won the game, stop playing."

57:11 Berkshire's Oil Investments

Even better.

Yes. I assume he was speaking of his 401K and taxable accounts (he'd previously only shared his Roth IRA trading account).

Unpossible.

Nice. You've more choices available than most. No matter how limited the choices (TSM, TISM, TBM, TIBM, etc.), I'd still be interested. Because as long as they offer any choice at all (other than a Target Date fund), they still say something about choices (US vs International, stocks vs bonds, etc.).

Boat slip +40%.

Interesting to me that no one else seems to be factor investing. Or even index sector investing. Huh.

The Russian Military Is Destroying Itself In Ukraine The British Military Intelligence has assessed that “a significant minority” of Russian casualties in Ukraine have been caused “due to non-combat causes. Non-combat deaths are normal on a battlefield. But Russian Telegram news channels report “extremely high” numbers of deaths linked to alcohol consumption and crime. “Other leading causes of non-combat casualties likely include poor weapon handing drills, road traffic accidents and climatic injuries such as hypothermia. Russian commanders likely identify pervasive alcohol abuse as particularly detrimental to combat effectiveness,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate on the war. Although completely foreign to Western professional miliary forces, alcohol consumption is an integral part of Russian culture, especially Russian military culture. “However, with heavy drinking pervasive across much of Russian society, it has long been seen as a tacitly accepted part of military life, even on combat operations,” the British Military Intelligence added. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/putins-disaster-the-russian-military-is-destroying-itself-in-ukraine/ LOL

40% BRK 25% Small Value (VSIAX) 10% International Large Value (VTRIX) 10% Energy/Utilities (VGELX) 5% Infrastructure/Gold (VPMX) 10% Cash