james22

The money is made during the adoption phase. And you'd have done very well investing in the gold ETFs once introduced. What other new asset class has been created in our lifetime? But fortunes have been made in other digital transformations: Amazon (commerce), Google (information), etc. Anyone familiar with the technology? And how stores of value, once locked-in, don't change.

That's not how adoption works. Or even accurate. Many of the wirehouses, regional broker-dealers, and institutions haven't yet turned on. Try buying a BTC ETF from Vanguard, for example. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/02/14/bitwise-matt-hougan-dacfp-ric-edelman-growing-adoption-of-spot-bitcoin-etfs.html Most RIAs aren't offering yet either. They manage $8T. 75% of them plan to allocate an average of 2.5% to the bitcoin ETFs. That's $150B demand.

Probably something like any adoption curve: Innovators: The first 2.5% of a group to adopt a new idea, and are open to risk and exploration Early adopters: Enthusiastic about new ideas and willing to champion them - 13.5% Early majority: More deliberate in adoption, influenced by feedback from early groups - 34% Late majority: Skeptical about innovations, adopting only after the majority have tried them - 34% Laggards: Last to adopt, typically resistant to change - 16% I wasn't interested until the ETFs came out. Others (Early majority) won't until something else ($100k, SBR, etc., or feedback from early groups) convinces them its viable. Many (Late majority) won't until their advisor recommends it. Once adopted, stores of value don't have competitors. Gold didn't for 5,000 years. Can you say that about any company you own?

The chance of bitcoin going from $10k to $0 was greater than zero. The chance of bitcoin going from $100k (and backed by Blackrock) to $0 is ZERO-POINT-ZERO. Imagine believing bitcoin is anything like a stock or non-finite commodity.

Do you believe bitcoin is more or less risky at $100k than $10k?

What's gold's market cap? What do you expect a digital gold's market cap to eventually be? Fat pitches aren't labeled.

Reality: BTC +117% YTD MSTR +352% YTD You're detached if you don't know that and not much of an investor if you don't wonder if it might repeat that performance in 2025.

And for bitcoin it may be. That's why it's the opportunity it is. Don't dismiss it out of hand just because the estimated return seems crazily high compared to BRK, the S&P500, etc.

By what measure? If you only recognize opportunities with conservative returns, you'll only get conservative returns (at best).

Could you give us an example of a fat pitch you've swung on, please?

What's your track record, Blake?

X350 Unless, of course, you've a successful track record.

What's your track record, DH?

What's your track record, DH?

This changes once retired - I'm not looking to get over it. It is very difficult for most who have successfully saved and invested to switch gears once retired and spend. I'm looking to use whatever mental accounting tricks I can.

Why the Trump 47 Administration Might Want Congress to Authorize a GSE Recap/Release Through Reconciliation Even When It Can Proceed Administratively Without Congress https://ruleoflawguy.substack.com/p/reconciliation-and-the-gses

Encouraging. But what we're missing here is that we've had decades of just sitting on our asses, leveraging cheaper labor versus going out of our way to really push the boundaries of engineering and manufacturing. And now that we have a company that's willing to do that because the leader is viewing that as a first principles approach to manufacturing, right? Instead of like, okay, cheap labor is good, but why aren’t we pushing manufacturing and engineering as much as we can to make this as efficient and as productive as possible? https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/musk-led-manufacturing-revolution-nobody-talking-about

I'd argue with stupid (or easy) in the case of bitcoin (while recognizing the luck of the opportunity), but money easily made is more easily spent, yes. I don't feel nearly the responsibility to that money that I do to my income earnings.

Retail has largely been buying based on number go up, not volatility. It will be sold by Blackrock and others as a portfolio diversifier. Assets in advised portfolios may be rebalanced, but are otherwise held forever.

Sure. But we underestimate accelerating change.

Some pointed the finger at the government of China, which they speculate mandated the apparent censorship for reasons unknown. "It is quite unfortunate that they put so much dev effort into making good jiggles but CCP cucked them," yet another redditor contributed, which isn't the most incisive bit of analysis I've ever read, but is pretty funny. https://www.pcgamer.com/games/rpg/gooner-9-11-averted-as-zenless-zone-zeros-butt-obfuscation-technology-is-rolled-back-in-the-face-of-horny-outrage/

It's the most entertaining thing I do.