james22

Gotcha.

And because both the investor's income and corporation's profit has already been taxed once.

I find myself relying more and more, for a solution to our problems, on the invisible hand that I tried to eject from public thinking.

Fair enough.

I was one of them (only shifted my MMF to ITT several weeks ago). But most retirees aren't timing. They hold a fixed allocation (60/40) or follow something like Age in Bonds. And anyone holding a Target Retirement fund has a significant bond allocation.

You don't know anyone retired? 1. They usually have a high allocation to bonds (40%+). 2. They count on withdrawing from bonds when the market is down for their expenses.

Did you watch the interview? He answers most of your questions pretty well.

Hypergamy ensures progress.

I think it’s mostly true that things are stagnating compared to the century, or quarter-century before 1970. Some of that is simply because we’ve snagged the low-hanging fruit: You can only invent radio once. But I think there’s more to it than that. In the United States, which drove most of the “golden quarter’s” progress, 1970 marks what scholars of administrative law (like me) call the “regulatory explosion.” Although government expanded a lot during the New Deal under FDR, it wasn’t until 1970, under Richard Nixon, that we saw an explosion of new-type regulations that directly burdened people and progress: The Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, National Environmental Policy Act, the founding of Occupation Safety and Health Administration, the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency, etc. — all things that would have made the most hard-boiled New Dealer blanch. Within a decade or so, Washington was transformed from a sleepy backwater (mocked by John F. Kennedy for its “Southern efficiency and Northern charm”) to a city full of fancy restaurants and expensive houses, a trend that has only continued in the decades since. The explosion of regulations led to an explosion of people to lobby the regulators, and lobbyists need nice restaurants and fancy houses. Maybe it’s just a coincidence that progress suddenly slowed down, but I don’t think so. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/05/12/technological-progress-stagnation-regulatory-explosion-1970s-column/84225066/

A world with internet is more than incrementally different than the world before it.

And luxury beliefs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_belief

I'll guess it'll look like the Middle East today, where vast wealth is held by few and just enough is shared to keep the populace from rebelling.

“What comes next will likely be more consequential than the comparable technological flourishing that began in the 1920s. We will again see a boost to the economy’s productivity, which always increases overall wealth. The ‘rising tide’ does ‘lift all boats.’ The future will repeat a central pattern of the past. The 25 percent in the near future will live like the 5 percent today, and the future 5 percent will live like today’s 1 percent, and so on.” https://bigthink.com/the-present/roaring-twenties-2020s/

We see four megatrends that require enormous capital investment over many years with decade-long implications for supply and higher potential for improved growth from labor and productivity in the US. • A capital spending boom could occur in the US. We believe aging capital stock and a tight labor supply will encourage capital expenditures after a decade of underinvestment. Private sector investment has begun to pick up momentum, helped by US fiscal spending following the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), CHIPS Act, and Infrastructure and Jobs Act. • Enormous investment is required for the transition to green energy. Sustainability targets are a priority for several countries and have complex implications for energy supply and demand. To meet the Paris Accord 2050 net-zero requirements, an additional USD 17tr of global investment is required through 2035, thereby providing a boost to GDP, and probably inflation. • A focus on security and deglobalization could require a large amount of unproductive spending. Geopolitical risks and a focus on supply chain security improvements are expected to lead to increased spending on national defense and secure supply chains via reshoring, nearshoring, and friend-shoring. • Investments in Artificial Intelligence technology are expected to rise. As spending on AI infrastructure and applications & models ramps to nearly USD 300bn by 2027 (from USD 26bn in 2022), the impact on labor markets will vary. While long term demand could decline with the labor displacement, productivity improvements could lead to greater supply growth across industries. But, there are many things that could prevent a Roaring '20s outcome, including geopolitical conflicts, political dysfunction, a debt crisis, an energy crisis, climate disasters, and AI fizzling. A Roaring '20s regime is our bull case scenario, yet the probability of it happening has increased to 50%. https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/insights/market-news/article.1603687.html

Love you pay for is less expensive than love you don't.

Sure.

Yeah, but: inflation. Probably worse off after-tax.

I can say honestly, in keeping with the book’s own serial inducements to “radical transparency,” that my endorsement of Dalio’s conclusion about his own intelligence was arrived at without prejudice. Cognitive bias had no role, only the preponderance of textual and pictorial evidence. Before I was asked to review Principles, I had never heard of its author or of Bridgewater, the investment firm that Dalio founded in his apartment four decades ago. As far as I knew, the present volume would turn out to be a monograph on virtue ethics or a history of post-Trotsky dissent within the Eastern bloc for general readers.

On the first page of his best-selling memoir, Ray Dalio unburdens himself of the opinion that he is “a dumb sh*t.” Nothing in the ensuing six hundred or so pages convinced me that I should dissent from this verdict. ... I do not wish to give the impression that Principles is the worst book I have ever read for professional reasons, or that narcissism, sophistry, and illiteracy are the only things in it. They’re just the only things that I can glean from its nearly six hundred pages. ... Don’t misunderstand me: I’m not saying that Ray Dalio is Hitler. Among other things, he lacks both the führer’s undeniable musical taste and his vegetarianism. ... https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/11/principles-for-dummies/ Hahaha.

When would you extend duration?

Ray Dalio’s investing tactics have always been a closely kept secret, even inside Bridgewater Associates. Several years ago, some of Wall Street’s biggest names set out to discover his edge. https://archive.ph/6kI4Y#selection-373.0-373.62

Extended duration tonight, swapped Short-Term Treasuries to Intermediate.