james22

1. You can never prove how good an investor you are. 2. A good investor would diversify. I'd add a Small Value and/or Info Tech index tilt.

Nice timing. Good luck!

Correct. I hope you didn't recognize it because it's a holding of yours. I've been holding in a Trust for four years...

What would happen to valuations if SS reserves were invested in the market? ... some have raised a fair question as to whether investing all of Social Security’s reserves in U.S. bonds is the best investment strategy. The interest rate paid on the bonds is determined by a formula adopted by Congress in 1960. It uses a rolling average of the rate on all U.S. bonds with maturities longer than four years. My rough calculation indicates this has resulted in about a 5.2% average yield since 1960. Currently, the rate is much lower because interest rates have been so low for the last decade, notwithstanding the increase in rates over the last year. According to Social Security Administration data, the average return for 2022 was 2.35%. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has returned 10.15% since 1960. If the reserves had been invested in the S&P 500 during that time, the reserve balance today would be something around $30 trillion and we would not be facing any shortfall for decades. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/congress-has-not-looted-social-security

Just sold some BRK for 2024 expenses. Nice feeling to be able to do so near the top.

Once you start thinking about growth, it's hard to think about anything else. https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/the-china-degrowth-syndrome

40% BRK 20% IT (VITAX) 20% SV (VSIAX) 10% Energy/Utilities (VGELX) 10% ITT (VFIUX)

Exactly why it's preferable to use the common definition of cash rather than one's own.

No, it's not. One has a stable value, one does not. You conflate need with a cope. I agree with you that cash held to dampen volatility is only a drag: And cash held for long periods of time for some opportunity to present itself ("dry powder") actually has a greater opportunity cost. But if you do need it (savings for a fixed expense in a short period of time), you should fear volatility and hold your $1 savings in something you'll know you can exchange for $1. That's why it's important to use the more narrow definition of cash. Cash is an asset if you need it, a liability if you don't.

Sure, cash is more valuable when opportunity presents itself. But I know I can exchange $1 cash for $1 then. What can I exchange $1 BTC/FFH/BRK for? Especially when opportunity presents itself is also more likely when what had been $1 of BTC/FFH/BRK might then only be exchanged for something significantly less. BTC/FFH/BRK is wet powder.

BTC has had a drawdown of 93% (2011), FFH 88% (2003), and BRK 54% (2009). If they are cash, what isn't?

Why do you consider BTC as cash?

Poetry.

Good question. Retired, I withdraw from my investable assets for expenses. So I do simply compare year end to beginning. Undervalues my "investing" returns (+20%), but more fairly reflects my reality (+16%). Makes it hard to compare to others, maybe, but I'm also less aggressive now then when working. And much less aggressive than the college kid gambling with his $1K Robinhood portfolio.

I watch and read a lot of of financial news, but mostly for entertainment. Only really moved by big picture arguments though: ESG (Energy position), Reshoring (BRK position), "Second Half of the Chessboard" (Tech position, no International position), etc. None of which would I source from the real world. Extending duration (MMF to ITT) back in October was probably the only tactical move I've made based on "news" in some time.

I expect the average Boglehead probably has better returns than most professionals.

+16% Funny year.

+100

Whoops. (Did manage to finally pivot to a 20% position in Tech halfway thru the year.)

Seems reasonable to assume some tactically invested at least new money (from income) into cash (MM funds) paying higher rates than they'd seen in a long, long time early this year when facing rising interest rates, a forecast recession, and after suffering market losses in 2022. Seems just as reasonable to assume those same investors will shift that cash to equities now that interest rates are predicted to fall, there's little fear of recession, and after suffering the opportunity cost of being out of the market in 2023. I assume the money that moved into cash above was otherwise earmarked for long-term investing, not emergency funds. This is the conventional wisdom, yeah?

US Small Value Energy Utilities Berkshire

Hussman is a genius. So?

$6T cash on the sidelines.