gary17

I'd say 20x P/E is "fair" Graham's formula is 2 x growth rate + 8.5 if we use 6% growth rate that Buffett likes for equity then 2 x 6 + 8.5 = 20. Gary

according to malysian airlines - no US or Chinese national. 4 unidentified. it just seems like a low probability that they didn't get the the citizens of the other two major powers on the planet. and Russia won't need to do any explaining to the Chinese or the American http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/mh17.html Gary

Interesting no US and Chinese nationals.... what's the odd of that?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/argentina-germany-can-expect-opposite-stock-fortunes-expert-says-1.2706594 German stock to outperform Argentina's to underperform according to expert. Gary

interesting article on how the Chinese have been able to move money out of China; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-14/secret-path-revealed-for-chinese-billions-overseas.html Gary

may be i'm not getting the complete picture let's say i buy BAC commons and BAC puts to set up an artificial 'call' and now i sell SHLD puts to pocket the premium to pay for the BAC puts I bought. so if SHLD collapses... i need to buy SHLD commons to satisfy the naked puts i sold... so i either have cash ready to buy or i sell other holdings to buy SHLD? or have i got this completely wrong?

I take it there is a 3 day settling period and then the shares are delivered. meaning you'd sell your other holdings to finance buying the SHLD shares ? so in order for this strategy to work you are finding a cheap, cheap stock that the probability of hitting the strike is acceptably low... (?)

Hi Eric So I gather you write puts to finance buying puts on certain concentrated position you own. Let's call it BAC. And you sold SHLD puts to finance BAC's insurance. But what if SHLD drops so much now you have to buy the commons? (my understanding is as a seller you pocket the premium up front. But if the price gets below the strike you have to buy to sell to the buyer of the put option) Thanks! The guy who sold you the puts could very well be sitting on a large concentrated position that he wants to hold onto for tax purposes only, but would otherwise like to diversify his downside risk. So he purchases at-the-money puts to diversify his downside risk, and he write puts on a diversified group of names that he does not otherwise have a position in. The premiums collected from the naked puts he writes are used to fund the puts he purchases as insurance. So he he moves his previously concentrated risk into a basket of other names. Don't assume he is running on a very thin line. It may be completely the opposite -- he was on a thin line before with his concentration, and now he is being very conservative.

up 18% today - do this 5 times this year you beat Mr. Market :)

Interesting a lot of the engineers are software or electrical.... must be the discipline of engineering with a lot of excess capital to invest :)

Thanks guys - great to know there's another value partner in this! Gary

Wasn't sure where to place this - but I was wondering if our German friends could help me understand if this company is a value oriented investor & they have good track record... https://www.langfrist.de/index.html They now own 20% of alarmforce industries (TSE:AF) - something I've been sort of following. TIA Gary

Create a few more accounts and use different names! There's money to be made here, you just gotta do the work!

this is a 50c dollar - and the value can be realized immediately: https://www.groupon.com/deals/starbucks-2-2010

I am curious as to people's opinion on how much would the Euro devalue when Germany leaves?

IF Canada and the US have a common currency today but two separate governments - would we want to break things up now?

sasol has been converting natgas to oil -

it is precisely this team i went into eurobank with them... how is that for an investment thesis :D

So there are so many combustion engine cars out there but a select few like Porsche and Lambo are the expensive ones... If Tesla can maintain that premium brand then it should continue to have strong pricing power.

True. That time isn't now, though, IMO. If you are living in it - might as well be now - this is like waiting to buy Berkshire A in the 1970s at low valuation. Here's the competitive advantage of real estate in Vancouver (i can't speak for the rest of the country): - the warmest city in Canada - protection from the US (real or not - that's how Asians perceive this) - 1st world country - decent education - within 10h to Asia (where healthcare wait time is 1h) - diversity The condo market will definitely correct - but if you think about where the top 1% of the world wants to live -- you know, those sitting on over $50M in asset no where else to spend - they don't mind dropping $5M for a piece of land in Vancouver most of these buys we are seeing are all cash purchases too - so it's not 100% leveraged like it was in the US. I agree things are expensive; but if you look hard there's still "reasonable" prices out there and can be a good long term tax free investment..... Gary

Another important factor is your primary residence in Canada is tax free - pretty good vehicle for long term wealth creation if bought at reasonable price and held until retirement

they have been more than bright - they purposely overbuilt - and at inflated prices too - using government funding - because that allowed the capital to flow into the pocket of select few.... it got a bit out of control which is why the new regime ; in fact even the last one ; started down the path of trying to get control on corruption & "cool down" the economy... The problem in China is no different than that of the US - too big for anyone to fully comprehend and only a select few - and thank God they exist - in the powerful offices have the ability to handle it. i'd personally spend more time trying to find the next alibaba at its infancy and buy now instead of thinking about when the world might come to an end.

I think we need to think a bit more about this... - impressive growth does not necessary mean good opportunity for investment. In China wealth went into a few politically connected. - a lot of over building is by local governments, not private enterprises. - China has its own currency and can print rmb all they want. - how do we know it is not in a recession already?

I actually think Berkshire performance will improve under the Ts America has had slow growth for the last decade. But we are about to witness a change, just my gut feeling. And looking at the stuff t and t buy I feel the co is in very capable hands. No wonder the company is buying at 1.2 x book. No position.

They are all impressive, just one massive claim before we see hard market and if the interest rate rises there will be able to earn better income. I believe AWH has short duration bonds mow, just waiting for the rates to go up.... I really don't know what they will do next year or the hear after, but I think in 5 to 10 years they should perform better than S and P 500. The risk is of course they go to zero because of under reserve (a management issue) or its a fraud (an accounting issue) ...