gary17

i see thanks.... might be a bit off topic of my original question, but i just find it easier to deal with my phone company than apple or google. who do you call at apple if something goes wrong? a bill mailed to me at month end is easy to read and i know where the shop is at if i have a problem. there's also a 1 800 number to call i just recall i got a apple gift card once and it wasn't activated properly - and nobody could help me...... not even the folks at apple store. don't know about google.... still, no 1800 number i know of. i'm not about to hand my finances to an entity with no number to call....

yes they do - but during the interview he said he owns 11 telcos - not sure personally or for the fund though. gary

Another question I have for the tech experts on this board - let's say mobile payment takes off - what role will telcos play? just simply transmitting data or is there an opportunity for them to be more like Visa? thanks

In the beginning. I think he was talking about Australia, but then says it could be a global trend for the next decade so all telcos should do well. But in case this theis is wrong, he'd exit, so the margin of safety is buy cheap ones (low multiple) I'm surprised he's talking about PE instead of EV ebitda

I threw in 5k in fairfax ... We'll see if I'm a millionaire by year 30 if they do 20% over the long term as they claim ;D

With all the security, etc, I just can't see people using wifi. I don't use wifi, it's slow and takes forever to login , etc... Time is valuable, and I don't have it! It really comes down to wireless broadband... Interesting bell in Canada is offering wifi tv which sends HD content directly to a wifi box.... If we r talking wireless broadband , does it still matter if it's copper or cable? The back haul (the connection after the cell tower) is always fibre right? --- I wasn't impressed with orange's IR page. Lots of useless stuff, I spent ten minutes and can't find the data I'm looking for. Telecom italia on the other hand has everything nicely organized in a spread sheet in ir, only took me 3min to find.

Maybe Canada really is a better version of the US, your experiences haven't been the same as mine at all. Reasonably priced used cars aren't available anymore. The gap between used and new has shrunk to almost nothing. Health insurance has climbed like crazy, went up $200/mo two years ago, $100/mo more this year, all for less coverage. Internet, insurance, all cost more. I think inflation is running at about 2% or so, our living expenses have been inflating at about 3-4%, raises have been in the 1.5% range. Big expenditures that rarely occur might be flat, but the things we purchase often are going up. Food is ticking up, and clothes are ticking up. My oldest son can destroy a pair of pants in a few weeks from sliding around. Kids clothes are not cheap, and they don't last either. I was thinking about this some more - I think this may have to do with the stronger Canadian dollar in the last 10 years -

It is interesting John has this thesis that the telcos will get good pricing power moving forward - I am wondering if anyone else on this board has thought about this? His argument is that due to the engineering limitations, it won't be possible to have an infinite number of cell towers to supply the demand for boradband wireless data in the next decade.... and as a result... telcos will have the ability to raise their prices. i quickly checked my cell phone bills - seems like there is some truth to that. i am wondering if others agree with this observation. Are there any experts in telcos here (Packer? and others... ? ) that could weight in on this? Thanks Gary

Think about the holdings in the background. In a 40% loss scenario needed to bring the hedges to break even (give or take) BKIR, BB, and RFP are gojng to drop alot more than 40%. I would wager 90% on RFP and BB. add to this: In the last major market drop FFh dropped 1/3 after reporting huge earnings. Agree with Dazel. FFh has the best bond group going. That's fine... But why wouldnt he buy more bkir and bb if they drop 40%? I think in the Long term, this will work in fairfax favor.

speaking of deflation do we have inflation? i live in vancouver, bc.... aside from gas and real estate, specialized labour and eating out at restaurants, the price of just about everything else has stayed the same if not less than it was 10 years ago cars - got cheaper clothing - cheaper computer - got cheaper plane ticket - cheaper digital camera - cheaper electricity - same i should add to my surprise my cell phone bill has gone from $25 in school to $85 now in 8 years. and TV/internet bill was $75 in 2008 and is now $150....

I'm thinking of starting a position based on 1. FFH (or similar insurance investing operations) can borrow money very, very cheap. I can't get that kind of leverage myself. 2. They can buy stuff I can't or don't understand. But I know that they have done ok in the past. 3. They appear cheap if we factor in their supposedly 20% cagr... 4. I like the berry exposure.

Still not sure how to assess this. If their value portfolio is good, maybe a 10% drop doesn't mean a 10% loss for their stocks, but means more than a 10% gain for the hedges (the reduction in losses being more than 10%). Options tend to get ahead of the market.... no? Why can there only be gains when the hedges are off? What if they unload them at different times? Unload when hedges seem ok but keep buying stocks if there's a down market. Is it really that complex?

i think it's too difficult to model the hedges if the S&P starts to drop - it doesn't need to go to 800 - the hedges should start to appreciate? so therefore FFH shares should worth more. but nobody knows if the market is factoring the hedges at 0 at the current price or not.

I wonder how FFH should be valued. If they can just break even on underwriting, technically they will never need to give the float back. So is it not book plus float plus some premium for the future earnings. I mean this is an ideal world. So if it's trading at around book this seems like a bargain.

very interesting talk - thank you for sharing

lunch - do you mean gncma?

I just don't see what is C's competitive advantage. I'll post in another thread.

In my portfolio I count leaps as their true cost... ie I add strike and premium... because that's my commitment when I bought the option. if one does not do this then it distorts the exposure / weighting.

In addition I'd add bank of ireland has done nicely in 2013. prem if I recall invested 300M which should be worth about 1.2b by now.

Could she be the next CEO of berkshire ?

Are there any ladies on this forum ?

The last hard market was more than 10 years ago

I wonder if people know during the hard insurance pricing market -- what's the book value multiple for companies like MKL & ffh, thanks

Maybe I could share some of my thoughts...... 1- Investing is so your currently purchasing power will be more in the future, adjusted for inflation. 2- There are a many approaches out there - value being one of them, and that has been what makes sense for me and worked (so far) for me. 3- Value investing is like buying something that has very limited downside risk.... with some upside -- it's like gambling in a casino with free chips - the decision is about putting the chip on the right table that'll give you the best outcome, after adjusting for inflation and opportunity costs.... 4- So then it comes down to buying something that's predictable in the future and with a margin of safety (just in case you were wrong) 5- Margin of safety is like paying for something a lot less than what you think it is worth --- I once bought a leather jacket at a garage sale for $25 and sold it on Craigslist for $150 a few weeks later.... I mean the leather jacket wasn't going to be worthless, and I can wear it if nobody wants it.... so that's my "margin of safety" 6- There are thousands of companies out there - since you can't possibly analyze them all, just go for the ones you understand. (I only do poker or blackjack - so i stick with those two when i'm in a casino; that's what I understand) 7- Finally, a lot about investing is your emotion ... you vs. yourself - I'd say if you've done the work and picked a good business that's trading at fair value, chances are it'll advance as the business advances... but along the way things fluctuate and that could have a lot of psychological effect on you.... good luck!!

I have a off-topic question that is related to this discussion... so if let say i can get credit from the home i currently own and use that to buy say Markel or FFH or Brk - one of these compounders that use insurance float to leverage.... i think this really amplifies the leverage from MKL's 2012 report - their investment portfolio is about $1000 a share if i pay $566 the market price - i'm getting this leverage (about x2) but if i'm borrowing then my cost is only the interest which is 3% or about $17/share - so now i'm paying $17 for $1000 of portfolio - is this the right way to think about investing in FFH / MKL / BRK ?? thanks