Gamecock-YT
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Posts posted by Gamecock-YT
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Citigroup
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I forgot how much I hate CNBC. Turning this into the Apple shareholder meeting.
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9 hours ago, Eldad said:
Now they have taken over the Deans office. Must be another slow news day. Hahaha
Which they’ve done what 4 or 5 other times since Vietnam? Laugh it up.
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Price is there to serve you, not to guide you. Act accordingly.
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46 minutes ago, Jaygo said:
Where are most people relying on for news, I feel like i'm in some over bias shelter where all my news seems like shitty AI driven or overly political stuff. If a guy just wanted facts on a situation where would he look.
Tough to beat Reuters for what you described.
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Must be a slow news day, got to love the 24 hour news cycle. If you want to read up on something that matters that isn’t getting any publicity anywhere look up the recent developments in Myanmar. More productive use of your time than caring about college kids protesting.
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The Germans said the same thing about that one guy too
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14 hours ago, John Hjorth said:
Please don't worry too much about this, because it really does not matter that much, because when the music may stop at a future point in time, it will also be like peeing in your pants, so there will be no fire.
[Posted by a CoBF member who is a citizen in a nation with order in the pencil case, running at a surplus.]
the problem is we are spending as if the music stopped. If the music ever does stop, even more spending will be required to support the economy. Traditionally when the economy is in good shape, government spending should decrease. The calculus has changed since the GFC/Trump's tax cuts/Covid. Now there's no interest by either political party to put the cat back in the bag because doing so would hurt their election chances.
Conversely, this is how a government should be behaving:
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If the repubs were smart they'd approve the funding but give it all in money to buy drones so the Ukrainians keep going after refineries. alas.....you figure they're so great at finding wedge issues to get their base to the polls that $4.00+ gas would be a slam dunk. Then again it is the repubs we're talking about. Maybe if a ruskie burns a trump bible while giving an abortion to an illegal immigrant.
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The previous Sunday was the last edition
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3 hours ago, charlieruane said:
Big earthquake in Taiwan. Remember when Buffett cited earthquake risk as a reason for backing out of his investment in TSMC?
Sounds like TSMC at the very least had to evacuate a bunch of staff, remains to be seen whether this will cause a material delay in production.
wasn't it geopolitical risks?
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7 hours ago, cubsfan said:
You can easily read the last dozen or so posts here. The politics is relevant, much to the dismay of some. All the speculating of why NO one would risk their bond capital backing a Presidential candidate that the State of NY is trying to eliminate by bankrupting him and stopping his campaign.
Some might call it "election interference"...
Some might call it "reputational risk"
Having sat on investment committees, it's a real thing.
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8 hours ago, ValueArb said:
My favorite documentary on how the "dead hand" works.
also teaches the dangers of fluoridation
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Only American apps are allowed to corrupt the minds of Americans!
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and I'm sure less KYC review as well
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what's the old saying? you buy gold when people think of it as just a rock and you sell it when people think of it as something other than a rock.
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Keep what I need for the next month or two in a money market account
Rest is usually rolled in T-bills from 4-16 weeks in maturity for the added yield and the tax advantage
Anything in brokerage tax free accounts I keep in a cash sweep or tempcash fund for the liquidity
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149 pages lol
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2 hours ago, schin said:
@Gamecock-YT I like your answers. M&A activity can be gotten from Dealogic. Where you do get a screen for dividend cuts and bankruptcies?
There's a lot of oil mergers lately (OXY being widely discussed). Dividends and bankruptcies don't appear to be an issue. Are there certain industries you are looking into now?
Not necessarily screens but you can get a lot of sector information just by reading a lot. Just this week you've seen Glencore and BHP cutting dividends. A lot of nickel mines are looking to shut down, or asking for government intervention, due to a supply glut coming out of Indonesia. So the mining sector seems interesting, maybe still a little early. There's already talk of a copper shortage in the next year or two.
And as you mentioned O&G consolidation in the permian. Is it likely to spread to other areas? You're seeing consolidation even today in Williston basin/Bakken so early returns seem like so. I could see the canadian O&G companies getting in the act as the TMX pipeline becomes operational.
But those are probably the two I'm focused on currently.
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On 2/22/2024 at 11:03 AM, schin said:
@Gamecock-YT - Have their concepts impacted your investing style? I know Howard Marks talks about super cycle too. So, I do like their writing on cycles, but don't trade in and out of cycles. (sector rotation). I generally use it to analyze an industry in down cycles that should revive -- like European banking.... or banking in America circa 2010.
I know shipping and oil are super cyclical, but they are commodities.
It's a good question. I think it's allowed me to get more comfortable investing in more commodity-type businesses by understanding where we are in the capital cycle. I guess the big winner using their concept was Scorpio Tankers. It was a losing position for a long time, with even bankruptcy concerns for most of 2018-2019. But the thesis was always that there was an inevitable supply crunch coming down the pike, no ships had been built since the last boom and product tankers have a finite life (~15 years) where most major oil companies won't contract ships older than that due to contamination concerns. Then Russia invades Ukraine and product tanker stocks go up 200-300%.
But I think now I'm using it as a quasi-screening process when I start seeing M&A activity, dividend cuts, bankruptcies it's a clue to start looking into the industry. Likewise when you see capex increases and/or debt increasing it's a sign that it might be time to start taking money off the table.
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also coincides with housing prices going down. Been a couple of articles recently about Hong Kongers moving to Shenzhen, especially among the youth
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4 minutes ago, Parsad said:
When you look at adjustments, discounts, calculating fair value, taxation related issues, attributed income classifications, etc...it's the auditors that make these calculations or at the very least review them and confirm them. Cheers!
it's just an observation, i'm intimately familiar with what an auditor does
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CFO really leaning on their auditors to carry a lot of these answers
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the call dropped
Have We Hit The Top?
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by Gamecock-YT
https://www.ft.com/content/afb30b48-29c3-4ae2-aa54-34915d78bdc8
Things you don't see at the bottom.