DTEJD1997

Keith Moon & John Bonham are most definitely very, very skilled drummers, but my vote has got to be for Neil Peart. As for investing, what percentage of the general population was selling stocks at or near the lows of 2008/2009? I had several associates who would tell me that they were down 40%, and now was the time to be getting out! They were going to take their lumps and get out.... What really has me spooked is that some of these same people are now looking to get back in the market.

I can recommend "Ragnar is a Pirate". The day job of the author is real estate. I can attest that he is very skilled and knowledgeable when it comes to real estate acquisition, rehabilitation, valuation, and anything related to it. What is interesting is that he will have articles on real estate from time to time in addition to stock investing. A good site to check out written by a very capable investor. Ragnar is also a member here, and will post here from time to time.

This is a hard call... I am going to suggest there is more RISK to owning a house than what is commonly thought... A). You are subject to the whims of your local municipality in regards to property taxes. While this is probably a relatively low risk, I've seen some crazy things happen. B). You are probably buying in a good area, but who is to say what it will be like in 10, 20, 30 years down the road? I've seen some areas where property value is LESS than what it was 40 years ago. And NO it is not limited to the inner city of Detroit. While it is rare, this does happen in some places... C). If things get really, really, really bad, do you think having a lot of capital tied up in a house is really the best idea? What if you have to move? What if property value collapse countrywide? D). What happens if you can't earn back the capital that you spend on the house? What happens if you have a very nice house, but can't afford to maintain it, or property taxes, etc. E). A house is a very illiquid investment. It could expensive and time consuming to get liquidity out of it. F). If you have that much capital tied up, what about insurance? Where I am currently living, insurance is VERY expensive. In fact, it is sometimes so expensive, it can be a significant burden. The person who bought a piece of property I used to own, was complaining that insurance was going up yet again. I can't see it coming down. Maybe your area is different, but it is something to consider. If you are worried about not having a place to live, why not make a very significant down payment? I just could not see paying cash for a house to live in if were 50% of my capital. If it were 10% or 20%, maybe, but not 50% or more.

I am purchasing stocks on the "grey" market. I've gotten some issues that trade mainly in China, Hong Kong, Europe and other spots. There is not much liquidity in the USA, some of them only trade once a month. HOWEVER, you can go to their home exchanges and see the volume and quotes. Perfect example? Emperor Entertainment, "EPETF". Home exchange is Hong Kong and they own a casino in Macau. Solid, value investment, and pays a nice dividend too!

If you are only talking about selling gas, your margins are most likely going to be thin, and you will have a hard time earning a good return on capital. HOWEVER, there are some gas stations that likely earn above average returns on capital. Here in Texas, we have a chain called "Buckeys" Their mascot is a beaver. The location off of I-45 on the way to Dallas might have 80 gas pumps. They have a huge deli. They have immaculate bathrooms. They sell all sorts of "custom" snack foods, such as beef jerky, pickles, and ice cream toppings. Their food is usually delicious. Prices are high too. There have been a few times when I did not stop, as the every pump was full and it was a complete zoo. I imagine they sell a few million dollars a year through their deli, and also sell several million in snacks...They have more than one location. These guys must be making a mint. In Houston we have Stripes. It is kind of like a super gas station with a tacqueria attached to it. Their specialty are breakfast tacos, which are actually fairly good. They have a fixin's bar with pico de gallo, and about a dozen differnet hot sauces. They sell lunch, and then they sell snacks (chicken nuggets, fried stuff) after that. Lots of people come in and get a $4 breakfast, which is pretty good. In the Carolinas, they have a chain whose name escapes me at the moment. They have very,very clean stores and bathrooms. They have about 40 different sodas & juices on tap. They have more snacks than you can shake a stick at. They have hot dogs, grilled items, and lots of prepared foods. While not gourmet by ANY stretch of the imagination, they are actually edible. Oh yeah, they've got ice cream & slushies, TONS OF THEM. Gas is cheap, very cheap. I imagine the strategy is to sell gas at a small loss or perhaps break even. You have to have a lot of self control to not buy some snacks when you go in there. I think Buckeys makes the highest return. They have maybe 7-8 locations that are strategically placed. Their gas prices, while not high, are not low. They are probably making money off gas too. What kind of gross margin will they make on a $30 gas sale, two sodas, and $12 in snacks? Or a $20 gas sale, 1 soda, and a $6 8 inch sub (not subway)? Then do this 2,000 or more times a day...every day. In my opinion, if you've got some "draw", clean bathrooms, good food, crazy selection of snacks...you can make some good money!

Hey all: I've been out of school since the 90's and have been working my own businesses. I am contemplating going into the finance industry as an analyst. Besides looking here, Monster.com and on Craigslist, does anyone have any suggestions on where to look for finding an analyst position? Thanks!

I've always rented my personal dwelling. I've owned commercial real estate in the past several times. I've also had family members that rented. They did so for a variety of reasons. Owning a house is a good thing, but it isn't right for 100% of people. When you factor in repairs, upgrades and taxes, that can take away a lot of the upside. It also depends where you buy. If you bought in California in the 70's, you are doing well. If you bought in Detroit in the 70's, you've lost money. Real estate does not always go up, even over long periods of time. I've also seen large tracts of real estate become worthless OR even have a NEGATIVE VALUE. So yes, there are other people out there who don't own houses.

Ragnar: In the end, the government can do anything it puts it's "mind" to. I am going to suggest that this article is showing a government gone FAR over the edge in it's need/greed/lust to get $. While everybody must pay their taxes, even the elderly, the manner in which the government did it is manifestly unjust. Back when I was in school....(all those years ago)...we were schooled that a creditor couldn't take more than what was reasonably owed. The creditor would take their pound of flesh (which could be substantial) and then if there was $ left over, the debtor would get a refund. Thus, in the case of these house sales, they would get dinged a few thousand in taxes, fees & penalties and then get a refund of the difference. I would suggest that even that is unfair. These people were taken advantage of because of their age or medical condition. To remedy it...I would suggest that NO person can be forced out of their property for maybe a period of ten years. The amount owed will be a 1st priority lien placed on the title. Modest penalties will be assessed and interest will accrue. This will be paid when the title EVENTUALLY transfers. Heck, you could even make an argument that the owner will ALWAYS have a "life estate" and thus can't be evicted from their property. As long as they are alive, they get to stay. Their equity MAY be eroded, but they can't be forced out. I would also suggest that there is a MORAL problem of having a $300 tax bill resulting in FEES & PENALTIES being orders of magnitude HIGHER than the original bill. This is only ONE manifestation of the government turning predatory towards the people. The government should serve the PEOPLE, not the people serve the government. We are rapidly going from citizens to being subjects... I sincerely hope that there is some fallout from this article and that change, reform, and that some officials are shown the door. This should not be happening the USA, at least not the one I grew up in!

Hey all: Owning property can have some very serious drawbacks...especially when you fall behind on your property taxes. What is so very shocking is that some people have lost their homes over a few hundred dollars. It seems manifestly unjust that an elderly person (or ANY person) should lose their home over a $300 tax bill. Why can't the municipality simply put a lien on the title? When the title transfers, the lien has to be paid first? It is also shameful to see that attorneys were involved with this. People need to pay their bills, for sure. However, how does the government justify somebody losing a $200k asset over a $300 bill? This seems like legalized theft. These people lost their house. Their heirs also lost their inheritance. It is a long read, but certainly worth it. If more reporting was done like this, perhaps American newspapers would not be in the trouble that they are... http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/investigative/2013/09/08/left-with-nothing/

Hey all: Just saw a disturbing article about "non-profit" education today. Evidently there are some schools that have low graduation rates. That is even allowing a 6 year period for a student to graduate. The article profiled 11 schools, and the University of Houston (downtown) was ranked #11! Evidently, only 14% of students who enroll graduate within 6 years! http://dailycaller.com/2013/09/06/these-11-universities-are-awful-and-should-be-demolished-down-right-now/university-of-houston-downtown-creative-commons-ed-uthman/

Hmmm: Could "for profit" schools be harmed by this? How about text book publishers? How about text book retailers? First Marblehead used to be big in student lending...can't recall what happened with them. I am sure I am missing others... I think education is undergoing a structural change.

Hey all: I've been yelling this from the rooftops. Nano cap value is the way to go! There are some caveats though: -You can't invest $500,000k per position. If you are managing 100's of millions, you are going to have a very difficult time. -If you are working with a $200k portfolio, this won't be too much of a problem. -You need to do a lot of work. -You need to be VERY patient. -You need to be able to go against the crowd and think for yourself. You are going to be out on your own. -You need to be able to go out and check things for yourself. For example, checking the real estate locations of Calloway's Nursery (CLWY). -Got to watch the bid & ask. Some of these can get pretty wide. If you are able to work with the constraints, there are plenty of pickings. Stocks will regularly trade WELL under book value and for LOW single digit P/E ratios. If you are really lucky, you will also get a dividend too! It took me many years to come around to this, but this area is VERY inefficient. Bloggers can give you some help. I'm looking at: "Ragnar is a Pirate", "Whopper Investments", "OTC Adventures", and "Oddball Stocks". These guys do a good job and know what they are talking about! I can highly recommend them.

Hey all: There is a large sporting goods store that I go to that has a large fire arm section. A few months ago, there were ammunition shortages. Most guns were also sold out, especially rifles. Was there last weekend, shelves are stocked with rifles, close to pre-panic levels. Ammunition is still not quite up to prior levels, but is close. Prices are higher, but not tremendously. I think gun sales will continue at elevated levels for the indefinite future, BUT not like what it was. Most people who wanted something have gotten it... I guess you can only so many guns and so many cans of ammunition? I think the gun maker's earnings will probably be coming down in the future.

Hey all: A very interesting piece. The thing I found most interesting was the part when he spoke about inter-generational debt. For example, he states (correctly I think) that tremendous debt incurred for building freeways, WINNING wars, universities, or other items that benefit most people and last for a long time will be easily shouldered. That people do not mind paying for a bridge built 15 years ago... Where there is a problem is money borrowed to bail out bankers, or keep government continually expanding, or spent on consumption where there is no long term benefit. That the next generation will say, "what benefit did I get, and why should I have to pay for it?". One of the figures bandied about was that the debt of the USA has expanded from $6T to $16T in the last 6 years or so. What did we get for it? What is the legacy being passed from one generation to the next?

Well, that is the $64 Billion dollar question! It depends on how rising rates affect the economy as a whole, AND how a particular bank's loan book is structured. For example, there are some banks that I own(ed) that loan primarily to businesses. These loans are much shorter duration than mortgages. A lot of business loans also have adjustable rates. So these types of loans would be better to hold in a rising rate environment. Consumer loans would also be good as they can re-rate every year. They are also high interest enough that a rise of 50 or 150 basis points is not going to affect it too much. Where you get killed is having 30 mortgages that are fixed rate. Their duration is simply too long. Rising interest rates will impact those severely. The bank makes their money on the spread that they earn between what they have to pay for deposits and what they loan the money out at. Right now, most bank's spreads are something around 4% or so. Extremely well run banks will have higher spreads....lesser quality banks will have lower spreads. The other problem with rising interest rates is the negative correlation between asset prices and interest rates. With higher interest rates, people are less inclined to hold stocks, and will switch to bonds. In order to counter this, the P/E of a stock will have to come down.... The EASY money has already been made in this sector. Prices are up 3x, 4x, 5x from the lows...but it is still relatively undervalued. No dollar bills to be made here, but there are still half-dollars and quarters to be picked up!

Paying a P/E of 10 for a US bank would take my breath away! That is quite a rich valuation! I WISH I could get a valuation of 10 on some of my banks. Then I would be tempted to sell! For example, please take a gander at State Bank Financial Group (SBFG). This used to be the bank called "Rurban Financial". They are based in NW Ohio, and have operations throughout most of Ohio and parts of Indiana. They got hit in the financial meltdown and traded all the way down to $2/share. They have made something of a comeback. Book value has solidified and has gone up. The quality of their loan book (after taking some writedowns & charges) has been slowly & steadily improving these last 8 quarters or so. Regulatory capital levels have improved every quarter for at least 9 quarters. They re-initiated a dividend a few quarters ago, and have raised it. I strongly suspect it will be raised again in the next few quarters as it is so very low (.12/share). There are several other interesting facets of this company. The P/E is 7, as they are earning $1.12/share. HOWEVER, those earnings are a bit LOW. SBFG is taking a small charge every quarter and amortizing goodwill from some very small banks that they took over years ago. So true CASH earnings are probably in the neighborhood of $1.24/share. The rate of earnings growth will probably start to slow down, but they will still be GROWING. Another interesting facet of SBFG is the insider buying. I've never seen anything like it. The insiders were buy from about $3/share, all the way up to $9/share. Small, slow, steady purchases of 200, 300, 400 shares. Time & time again, for years. NO SALES, only purchases. Of course, SBFG is also trading for a discount to book value (11.20/share), which seems a bit silly. They are earning just over 10% ROE. i would argue a company that is earning over 10% ROE, and likely to do so in the future, should be trading for AT LEAST it's book value. This is not the only bank like this...bargains abound in the smaller community banks!

I was born and raised in Detroit. I currently in Houston. I would also add that if anybody needs "a boot on the ground" or somebody to check things out, I am available to check things out in Houston, Dallas, and the related area.

Hey all: Turns out there were problems at the Kaplan division of the Washington Post for YEARS. Several years ago, I had taken some classes from a division of Kaplan to help in professional licensing. They were VERY expensive and intensive. They did the trick though. I think this would be a very successful and very ethical "for profit" education company/division. Unfortunately, it was only a very, very small part of Kaplan. A year or two later I had some employees who took classes a Kaplan trade school. Their result was no where near as good as mine. In fact, it was disgraceful. Turns out there is an article today in Breitbart profiling the problems at Wash/Post and Kaplan. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2013/08/07/Cynical-exploitation-of-minority-and-poor-students-ensured-value-of-washington-post Warren Buffet seems to be very concerned with his public profile and reputation. I wonder why nothing was done about this? As he is fond of saying, "it takes a lifetime to build a reputation, and only 5 minutes to destroy it". Well, this certainly does not reflect well on Washington Post/Kaplan. Nor does it look good for WEB who has been an investor in them for decades. I wonder if WEB knew what was going on?

Hey all: I've been following this one for a while and have been intrigued. I've never pulled the trigger, as I am waiting for them to post up some net earnings and to see how the situation in China plays out. I've also resisted pulling the trigger, as I was never comfortable with the valuation levels. The prices seems to have come down to a more reasonable level, but they are probably going to book a loss after selling the insurance sub. Probably the right move if it were losing money & taking up time. I think Mongolia will probably do well, especially if the mines are the quality is good. It is probably going to be easier for China to get resources from Mongolia than Brazil or Australia. I'll be watching this one...If they can start showing some real progress, the share price comes down, and the economic situation levels out, this could be a good buy.

Hey all: I can heartily endorse Value Line. I've used it for years and find it to be a great resource, especially if you want to look for historical data. I have suggestions for those of you wishing to save money. A). Value Line will run specials from time to time, you can really save a lot of money if you time it right. B). Most libraries have the basic edition C). I find my Iphone takes high enough resolution photos so that you no longer need a photo copier

LC, a very elegant solution. I am embarrassed that I did not think of that. I guess this is what was done in times past. Work permits were issued for 6 months or a year. Evidently this cut illegal immigration by about 90% and seemed to work out. I wonder why we can't go back to this? Must have been too sensible for our halfwit politicians. I think this is the best solution.

OK, if we give away citizenship to 11MM illegal immigrants, then who would pay $500k for an investor's visa? Simply come across the Southern border and stay here and then get your citizenship virtually for free? What kind of precedent is this setting? I am all for immigration, LEGAL immigration. If we want to allow 1, 10, 100, 1,000 or 1,000,000 Mexican nationals (or any other group) than that is fine, have the discussion and do it in orderly fashion. Screen who is coming in and set some rules. If law abiding Mexicans, Colombians, Canadians, Indians, Chinese, Vietnamese, Australians, English etc. wish to come here that is fine. Follow the rules and come legally. How are people going to feel that follow the rules? They are suckers, they have a distinct disadvantage playing by the rules. As to people who think this is a terrible idea, maybe we should just have totally open borders? Anybody who can get here is granted citizenship? Why even have border checkpoints? Why should some people have to take a civics test to become a citizen and others don't? Why have laws on the books and not follow them? Nothing possibly could go wrong!

Hey all: I have NO PROBLEM with immigration....My ancestors were immigrants themselves. HOWEVER, letting in millions of people who did not follow the rules? I had many friends in school and graduate school who were HIGHLY educated and wanted to stay in the USA after graduation. They had to go back to their home country. Or how about a friend of mine who is an engineer. He goes to Singapore/Thailand on business several times a year for weeks/months at a time. He has a Thai girlfriend. She can't even come over to the USA to visit. These are all law abiding people. They are being treated worse than people who simply show up. What about people in Europe/Middle East/Asia who want to come to the USA and are made to wait years, or can't even get over here. So millions of people NOT following the rules/law are to just be given citizenship? What message does this send to people who are following the rules? I say if the person wants to jump to the front of the line OR not follow the rules, have them pay a high fee for doing so. As to immigrants going to Canada, would you guys take 11 million people?

Hey all: I don't want to devolve TOO far in politics. I wish to discuss this mainly from an economic standpoint... America is about to tremendously devalue it's brand. HOW? By granting citizenship to millions of illegal or "undocumented" workers. American citizenship used to be the "gold standard" for citizenship across the world. People desired it highly. They would risk tremendous amounts to get here, they would work hard to get it... Now, Congress is basically going to GIVE it away. I would argue that it should be SOLD. Applicants should have to pay a $500 or $1,000 application fee. This is STRICTLY non-refundable and must be paid up front. If they pass that, they would pay a much more substantial fee in order to actually become a citizen. I'm talking about $30,000 at a minimum, perhaps more. A substantial down payment would be required, something like $10,000. The rest could then be paid over a 5 or 6 year period, carried at the low, low interest rate of 12% on the unpaid balance. The USA government has student loans at a low 6.8%.....So I think 12% would be a relative bargain. You would have to pay a certain minimum every year, and MUST be paid by the end of the period. In addition to the fee, potential citizens MUST pay an additional 2% into social security for a period of 10 years. During that 10 years, they would not be eligible for ANY benefits. Conviction of a felony would result in forfeiture of monies paid, and a ticket OUT of the USA. I know that other countries will "sell" citizenship, but the rate is usually MUCH higher. I think Singapore is $500k. They also frequently have the requirement of creating jobs too. If the USA just hands out citizenship to MILLIONS of people for basically nothing, what is it worth? I would think the politicians would be all over this. Democrats would like it as it bring a tremendous amount of money into government coffers. Republicans would like it as it might put a brake on illegal immigration. It would also get the media off of their backs as being uncaring. Any thoughts on this?

Unfortunately, I have not had any orders filled lately. I've been trying to buy some more Awilco Drilling. I've also been trying to buy a mini-conglomerate that has major operations in building products. I've also been trying to buy a small medical products company. I've also tried to get an internet/real estate company. Every company other than Awilco is a Nano-cap. No luck yet, but perhaps later this week...