CorpRaider

Thanks for sharing.

I didn't really like this one either. The insider trading story was pretty amusing.

ECB does full blown targeted stimulus while Fed starts to tighten. Greece leaves the EU and no one cares. Dollar continues to strengthen in first half of year eventually stimulus and weak euro lead to actual european growth. Impressive gains in constant currency, decent gains with currency factored in. Wisdomtree blankets financial media with adds for HEDJ. Kinder Morgan buys Williams, and Spectra Energy. People start calling Richard Kinder, "commodore."

Anyway, as I was saying, it should run from $5 to $6.30 on high volume over the next couple of days. :o

Mainly by vomiting in a trash can. Haha! ;D

Hi Ben, That's funny, I was actually thinking of asking you if you had looked at it. Here's a Sunday morning stream of consciousness: I read a BofA report and a couple of other blurbs from analysts and when oil was at $70 they were pegging the valuation at $6 billion up. I think Morningstar has a $21 per share target. Its trading at $2 billion (~$5.50). I think the analysts were cheating somewhat prior to spin (or actually using the best comp) because Oxy made CRC pay divvy of $6 bil up to parent and they may have inferred that parent co and its bankers valued it at ~$12 billion and decided to take half (actually, Chazen is a former banker, and pretty much keeps his own counsel as I understand it). Of course oil has fallen off a cliff since then, but not by 2/3. You know there's an explanation, they were spun into a storm with no SH support really the Oxy base probably doesn't want a small cap california only fast growth e&P stub (.4 shares per share of oxy), and no yield support. They pretty much own the Monterey (for better or worse); have a somewhat supply constrained local market in California, unless and and until somewhat gets an ok to run a pipe from the permian. Apparently most of their producing assets are actually conventional. They also own a downstream chemical operation and a power plant so they're not a pure play bantam weight E&P. Obviously the California regulatory environment is a handicap. Oxy still holds 20% and is planning to potentially distribute via a share exchange. Could be an opportunity there if they do something with the exchange rate that makes it seemingly unattractive (probably just the share exchange mechanism would do the trick). I always try to look at the incentives in these things, as Greenblatt has instructed, and Chazen stayed with the permian focused parent and took the cash and held onto 19.5% of CRC, so maybe Oxy is the better play. Oxy is going to have like $15 billion in cash of they can sell Al Hosn gas fields working interest for what people expect, and they only have a $60 billion market cap and are supposed to plow that all into buybacks. Shrinking the market cap in this environment dramatically will probably work out well 2-3 years down the line. It also makes them more attractive to acquirers and they've got a CEO on the way out the door. That being said, I agree with what some others in this thread have said about sticking primarily with the sellers of the picks and shovels (the service companies and capital equipment providers) and the transporters, so I've done nothing. This is very helpful, thank you! I have not looked at it much. Was Morningstar really at $21 assuming $70 oil? I do wonder if OXY isn't the better r/r in the event oil continues to decline. Very clean balance sheet, and kind of like XOM they will have a field day, no pun intended, picking up cheap assets in this environment. Why do you think they hung on to the 20%??? Yeah, I double checked the Mstar. I was wrong. That's with $90 as their mid-cycle assumption in their PV-10. Oxy is going to have a ton of cash, but I bet they will plow most of it back into their own shares, which should work too, I guess. I don't know on the 20% but they've mentioned doing a share exchange. They have stated intention to spin it or otherwise dispose w/in 18 months. Maybe Irani wanted the option on it via the exchange offer. Just noticed some insider buying in CRC too. SWN CEO is on the board and he picked up 100,000 shares at a little over $6. Also, book value as of 9/30 is like $12.60 and this thing isn't leveraged up and drilling marginal shale assets (or north sea assets like TLM...please spaniards...pay me in stock).

Hi Ben, That's funny, I was actually thinking of asking you if you had looked at it. Here's a Sunday morning stream of consciousness: I read a BofA report and a couple of other blurbs from analysts and when oil was at $70 they were pegging the valuation at $6 billion up. I think Morningstar has a $21 per share target. Its trading at $2 billion (~$5.50). I think the analysts were cheating somewhat prior to spin (or actually using the best comp) because Oxy made CRC pay divvy of $6 bil up to parent and they may have inferred that parent co and its bankers valued it at ~$12 billion and decided to take half (actually, Chazen is a former banker, and pretty much keeps his own counsel as I understand it). Of course oil has fallen off a cliff since then, but not by 2/3. You know there's an explanation, they were spun into a storm with no SH support really the Oxy base probably doesn't want a small cap california only fast growth e&P stub (.4 shares per share of oxy), and no yield support. They pretty much own the Monterey (for better or worse); have a somewhat supply constrained local market in California, unless and and until somewhat gets an ok to run a pipe from the permian. Apparently most of their producing assets are actually conventional. They also own a downstream chemical operation and a power plant so they're not a pure play bantam weight E&P. Obviously the California regulatory environment is a handicap. Oxy still holds 20% and is planning to potentially distribute via a share exchange. Could be an opportunity there if they do something with the exchange rate that makes it seemingly unattractive (probably just the share exchange mechanism would do the trick). I always try to look at the incentives in these things, as Greenblatt has instructed, and Chazen stayed with the permian focused parent and took the cash and held onto 19.5% of CRC, so maybe Oxy is the better play. Oxy is going to have like $15 billion in cash of they can sell Al Hosn gas fields working interest for what people expect, and they only have a $60 billion market cap and are supposed to plow that all into buybacks. Shrinking the market cap in this environment dramatically will probably work out well 2-3 years down the line. It also makes them more attractive to acquirers and they've got a CEO on the way out the door. That being said, I agree with what some others in this thread have said about sticking primarily with the sellers of the picks and shovels (the service companies and capital equipment providers) and the transporters, so I've done nothing.

http://www.alphaarchitect.com/blog/2014/12/11/oil-stocks-a-real-time-case-study-in-value-investing/ This is pretty close to my shopping list. Maybe add XOM and looking at CRC; spun into the abyss. Also maybe some SE, PNY if they sell off hard.

I agree with you. Even better if its one with most of the focus on nat gas. This and maybe an integrated that picks up a steal or two and MAYBE some distressed debt of some of the smaller E&Ps if you can get comfortable that they can make it through are what I'm thinking.

Maybe I'm a schmuck, but I like the guy and enjoy his books, presentations, etc...

That is awesome!

haha! Too risky. I'm going to buy more KMI warrants instead.

Haha! Considering the source as I sweat... ;D

Here sits mighty XOM at my target price. Yet here sits my bat on my shoulder. ;D

Potential risk is there hypothetically although debtor in possession or trustee is going to compromise the contract to get the carbon transported to market for cash only as last resort, at least that is the theory.

It looks like maybe TLM is going to catch a bid here and save my bacon. C'mon Carl and make that CHK sale to SWN look like a giveaway. ;D

Check these out: RPV, FNDB (VLUE if you want larger cap lower vol and fees), VIG, SCHD, QVAL, DVP. Happy discuss further if interested.

Looking at OIS. Alex Roepers just filed a 13D on it, Einhorn and Jana are already holders.

Happy wife, happy life. ;D

He's still in the money on XOM as far I know, I think he bought under $90.

So, like Helmerich & Payne? NOV?

Yeah and I feel like they are more likely to be disciplined about the ROIC on what, if anything, they acquire.

XOM

I wonder what he said in connection with the bullet re: kmb management incentives and the earnings "surprise" just prior to the spin.

Yeah, run that back to about 1965 and I might be more interested. Another thought: Tony Robbins investing book; a bigger red flag than the Pets.com IPO?