CorpRaider

BAC-WTA. Each time I die a little inside. :o

Yeah, I think you've got a good point. I was going to say, in honesty, there are a lot more feasible affordable domestic options now than back when I went with the Ducati. A purely unionized workforce is a no on the decision tree for me no matter what else. A company like Boeing where they have some hand with the union given the southern plants is ok, but they've got HOG by the short and curlys. So I guess it is an automatic pass for me. Polaris really might be a better option, they have Victory as well. Thanks for the discussion. All the rice burner and whatnot was supposed to be "tongue in cheek", (I guess that doesn't come through on the internet) I've had two honda dirt bikes and I loved them so much I would ride until I got injured every time out (much better and more likely to start than the Husky's and Cagiva's my pops and brother had). My uncle tours all over the darn country and up to Canada on his BMW. He's a tough old bird. WAY more than I could handle. haha.

I'm going to have to decline the (perceived) invitation to an internet pissing match. In any case, I must respect my elder, since you whipped out the learned ancient biker card. haha. I suppose if you really think you're a good touchstone for the mass affluent motorcycle consumer in the U.S. (and all the markets around the world that will follow that lead), then you won't buy any HOG. I don't own any yet, but I do not think one could replicate the brand very easily and I don't think there's anything even close as a peer in the space. It reminds me a lot of DE with perhaps weaker asian competition.

No. Only the many (not everyone) on Japanese cruising bikes might rather a Hog if they'd cash, but not Ducatis or BMWs. (Ducatis are for many on Japanese sport bikes and BMWs for many on Japanese touring bikes, if they'd the cash.) Yes. The crotch rocket gets old after you turn thirty. I had a Ducati , pretty much solely because I could get it for $12 grand versus $16 - 20 for a similar used hog at the time and it wasn't as embarrassing as a rice burner. I also had a 600cc honda CBR when i was a baby. Got married an now I drive an SUV.... None of the others are aspirational bikes, at least in the states. Finally, no posers in America who have never owned a bike, go and buy Ducati gear to wear just for the brand associations.

Why HOG? It seems a dying business. Younger people dont buy HOG and current fans are retiring. HOG sells ~40% of their bikes overseas and the strong dollar is hurting their foreign business right now. International growth is still intact and their domestic growth, though slow, is positive. This has been the case since 2005. Q1 '15 was weak and the stock sold off. The market is taking Q1 as the start of the real decline of the brand and is pricing it at a PE and P/FCF lower than any period over the last ten years aside from 2009. As for the future of the brand: I'm not sure HOG doesn't have young fans. Their bikes are expensive and young people cannot afford to buy them. The 20 and 30 somethings zipping around on crotch rockets are going to trade them in one day for something comfortable. The 20-30 somethings that give up their bikes will still have a midlife crisis in their 50's and go out and buy a bike. I really cannot think of a brand with a stronger following. I wonder how many hippies in the 60 and 70's were buying hogs? A bunch of those hippies own Harleys now... I was going to say: To me their fans retiring is good. That's when it is most worth it to go drop $30K on a bike to cruise your CPA ass around. I also agree that pretty much everyone on a rice burner or a ducati or BMW would rather have a hog if they had the cash. I too missed HOG during the recession due to fear (although I bought DFS, WFM, DNKN and UA pretty much at the bottom, but I sold them all WAAAAAAAAAY too early. Lesson learned, hopefully. I just started looking at it though and haven't bought any yet. Didn't they have some labor problems that got them into trouble in the great recession?

Exactly this. It's natural to be a little worried when the sums become bigger, but keep in mind that it's always been and always will be a percentage of your savings anyway -- regardless of whether it's $1,000 (out of $10,000) or $100,000 (out of $1,000,000). My usual response to posts by these two guys: Ditto.

Lance, who is your broker? haha! Just kidding, I appreciate your willingness to share your ideas/moves.

Lame. Larry Fink wants your 401(k) account and is singing for his supper. The capital that is returned to the actual owners of the business doesn't evaporate, for fooks sake. It is actually just going to be allocated without the agency problems. Management can't be bothered to land the corporate jet for an hour to file a report to the owners of the business on their plans for the owners' capital? If you've got a nice 5 year 30% IRR project just make your case and don't crap yourself and start blowing shareholder's money on investment banks and lawyers the moment anyone other than your uncle wants a slot on the board to limit your stock options to $50 million a quarter.

Any idea what was the stock he was talking about that led to founding the VIC? I've heard the story before and thought it was a story about discovering Michael Burry, but I'm not sure.

Yeah, not sure why i had $5 bil in my head. Wonder how he feels about them getting into bed right after he caled out pe in his letter. Not aure he can say much as the 3g deals dwarf this.

Really? $5 bil is a ~4.5% position, no?

I watch "the note" on the FT youtube channel. I sort of feel sorry for him now that he seems to be in NYC with a bunch of cubes with people chattering away loudly behind him when he tries to film it. He used to be in their London location with a view in the background and he could actually have guests and whatnot. I wish the FT would sell out to Bloomberg and pump up a US version and use the rest of the paper with the INTL coverage to fill in all of the other sections in the WSJ that I don't care about, including opinion, NY metro, weak world coverage, basically 80% of the paper. I would subscribe so hard.

Maybe I should take another crack at Security Analysis if and when I get through my kindle library and unread stuff in my bookcases. I made a go of it as a teen and didn't make it through. I put it aside and went for intelligent investor (and maybe some WEB books by hagstrom) instead.

I think I read somewhere that the average american works 2 out of every 5 days (or something like that) just to pay for their lifetime automobile related expenses.

They tell that story complete with video from Mr. Keogh in the remembering episode hyperlinked above. It was pretty funny! Also had some funny stuff about New Coke.

Yeah, it is interesting. Seems like really Netflix is sort of just a different bundle, with a much better interface and software. As for what I've been buying...more TLM this morning. I better hope this deal doesn't blow up.

Yeah, what's been up with Discovery? Think its just generalized angst about the perceived impending doom of the cable bundle as evidenced by recent announcements from HBO and AAPL?

Yeah me neither. Thanks a lot for bringing the blog to my attention.

I've done that with new cars as well. It works really nicely. I imagine it is harder to do it with used cars, but probably doable especially if you're looking at a common model. I've tried to use the power of competition in hiring home contractors, but have had much less success.

I've looked at Kraft 4-5 times over the past couple of years and passed, but I wasn't able to factor coming in and gutting the sucker and then levering up the earnings yield. I also feel like GIS might eat their lunch with the Annie's brand, if they keep the organic bona fides in place.

If I had to bet, it looks like they are about to Grexit, stage left.

I like KMX but it never gets cheap enough for me. Or it hasn't in a long while.

If the drachma comes back, I might be taking a Greek vacation, so long as things aren't dangerous.

So, the potatoes...what can I put on them? Olive oil and sea salt prior to baking? Nothing? No butter, cheese, bacon bits and sour cream, I presume.

I have no problem with active owners. I doubt WEB does either. But there's a difference between being an owner that keeps the principal-agent problem in check and being an activist who's focused on forcing corporate action to get Mr. Market to recognize value to the detriment of the actual intrinsic value of the company. For example, Jeff Ubben, an activist that I highly respect, was absolutely right to point out that Dan Loeb's push to sell off part of the Alibaba stake may have been a bad decision that primarily benefited Loeb and not the long term owners of YHOO. The question is, what type of active ownership does WEB not like? Clearly, he's cool with the 3G variety. Not so much with the buy 'em and flip 'em mentality that's all about earning that fee. Yeah, as you know its just a tool, and like any other it can be used well or poorly. Obviously active investors are beset by the short-term focus that plagues the investment community, generally. As usual, it is all about the incentives. In that case, if I recall, I think Loeb was at least helpful in highlighting the asset and kicking off a discussion. Turning to the example that kicked off the discussion, GM. Yeah Wilson's two year options are short. I wonder what the vesting period is for the options in GM's management compensation program. That still doesn't mean they should be allowed to horde capital so that they are guaranteed a job in perpetuity no matter what happens with the business or the industry. I hope Wilson can at least get them to look at buybacks rather than dividends.