CorpRaider

QVAL

I thought the point about margin was interesting. Would like to hear his thoughts on that.

Can you be more specific? I went through your last 100 post history and all stocks mentioned there have a lot of discussion. For example, yesterday, ItsAValueTrap asked if anyone was interested in AAMC/RESI. I explained why I was not, but no one else chimed in with an opinion. AAMC is down 85% from peak and RESI is at 77% of tangible book. Even though I have my issues and reservations with both, I would think someone else would at least have an opinion. I tried to get people to look at Forestar ( an owner of energy assets, timber, and lots of real estate that is down a lot at a decent discount to book and undergoing activism), but there didn't seem to be much traction. I personally find it compelling but am waiting for a little more clarity and progress to size it up. No one cares about ACAS, a BDC at 70% of book (75%) after adjusting for full dilution, it will split into parasite co and host co (asset manager and yield pig BDC) this year. No one cares about Tetragon, 50-60% of book (undiluted and diluted), 6% dividend, decent mix of assets, No one cares about Equity Commonwealth, cheap office REIT chaired by Sam Zell The reality is that several of these are either not spectacularly cheap, have shitty or greedy (or both) management, and there isn't a ton to discuss about them so my expectations should be low. I just think the 1/10 of posts on BH and SHLD (which i still read and sometimes contribute to the problem) should maybe make it to other ideas. I will say I often don't have much to say about small cap australian companies or this or that so it's not like I'm part of the solution. EDIT: And there are much better more interesting ideas posted by others that get little discussion, didn't mean to make this a personal rant I'm long EQC and established the position only long after your initial post. I actually have some limit orders open as I type to add to the position. It also really turned me onto Corvex Keith Meister, whom I am closely following now (and am going to get some ARCP if I can catch a fill @ $8 which is about where I ballparked with $0 value attributed to the non-traded REIT business). Thanks very much! Also, enjoyed the discussion of JOE...it is about a buck away from getting real interesting to me. I've looked at ACAS multiple times, but I can't get comfortable with the people. I'm also trying to limit myself more to opportunities where the agency "costs" inherent in public company governance are in some way minimized (such as having Corvex and Related on the board with Zell running things; or where Berkowitz is on the board keeping an eye on mgmt).

I believe a bear market will probably help alleviate some of the "issues" posters in this thread have. 1) If valuations are more on the cheap side of fair, if you will, some of the posters who have gone "radio silent" will likely become enthused about the markets and/or particular ideas and will engage in discussions; 2) many of the warren-come-lately posters who are finding it hard, and perhaps selfish, to withhold their vast wisdom on investing and indeed all things, given their stunning brilliance as evidenced by their superb investing performance over the past five years, will likely quiet down and/or give up investing and posting on this board altogether after getting decimated by the next bear market. Stability breeds instability? Bull markets breed bull-shite? (present company excepted, of course...haha) Alternatively, it could all be my fault. I joined in early 2013, after lurking for some months.

As close as it gets in this world!!!

Agree, also a bunch of guys are probably writing a lot of junk over the last year or three.

Wow. Who is he cloning on the FCAU and ZINC positions?

Throw in Buffett (Munger), Icahn and Greenblatt as other famous investors who find little no value in having a view of the market's direction (at least that is what they say; Buffett and Icahn seem to flirt with a little timing). But its fun to discuss I suppose. Doesn't feel like 1999 to me. More like early 90's pre LTCM maybe 1994 (?) or a more pedestrian moderately richly valued market. Maybe like the time right before the junk bonds imploded and Michael Milken went down. I was just a kid then so I don't remember a lot of detail, just general impressions. Now, I'm not investing in Uber or high yield bond etfs.

I'm sure most of you have already watched the new $WSW show/revival, but I didn't see a thread calling it out to people's attention. So here's a link to the site where you can watch streamed episodes: http://www.wallstreetweek.com

It was interesting to see the percentage reductions in the positions and the compare to the weighting in the overall (reported) portfolio. BAC seems to have stayed at about 25%. Looks like maybe he's moving to cash; the 03/31 factsheet says he has about 18% of the 5.75 billion in the fund in cash.

BAC-WTA. Each time I die a little inside. :o

Yeah, I think you've got a good point. I was going to say, in honesty, there are a lot more feasible affordable domestic options now than back when I went with the Ducati. A purely unionized workforce is a no on the decision tree for me no matter what else. A company like Boeing where they have some hand with the union given the southern plants is ok, but they've got HOG by the short and curlys. So I guess it is an automatic pass for me. Polaris really might be a better option, they have Victory as well. Thanks for the discussion. All the rice burner and whatnot was supposed to be "tongue in cheek", (I guess that doesn't come through on the internet) I've had two honda dirt bikes and I loved them so much I would ride until I got injured every time out (much better and more likely to start than the Husky's and Cagiva's my pops and brother had). My uncle tours all over the darn country and up to Canada on his BMW. He's a tough old bird. WAY more than I could handle. haha.

I'm going to have to decline the (perceived) invitation to an internet pissing match. In any case, I must respect my elder, since you whipped out the learned ancient biker card. haha. I suppose if you really think you're a good touchstone for the mass affluent motorcycle consumer in the U.S. (and all the markets around the world that will follow that lead), then you won't buy any HOG. I don't own any yet, but I do not think one could replicate the brand very easily and I don't think there's anything even close as a peer in the space. It reminds me a lot of DE with perhaps weaker asian competition.

No. Only the many (not everyone) on Japanese cruising bikes might rather a Hog if they'd cash, but not Ducatis or BMWs. (Ducatis are for many on Japanese sport bikes and BMWs for many on Japanese touring bikes, if they'd the cash.) Yes. The crotch rocket gets old after you turn thirty. I had a Ducati , pretty much solely because I could get it for $12 grand versus $16 - 20 for a similar used hog at the time and it wasn't as embarrassing as a rice burner. I also had a 600cc honda CBR when i was a baby. Got married an now I drive an SUV.... None of the others are aspirational bikes, at least in the states. Finally, no posers in America who have never owned a bike, go and buy Ducati gear to wear just for the brand associations.

Why HOG? It seems a dying business. Younger people dont buy HOG and current fans are retiring. HOG sells ~40% of their bikes overseas and the strong dollar is hurting their foreign business right now. International growth is still intact and their domestic growth, though slow, is positive. This has been the case since 2005. Q1 '15 was weak and the stock sold off. The market is taking Q1 as the start of the real decline of the brand and is pricing it at a PE and P/FCF lower than any period over the last ten years aside from 2009. As for the future of the brand: I'm not sure HOG doesn't have young fans. Their bikes are expensive and young people cannot afford to buy them. The 20 and 30 somethings zipping around on crotch rockets are going to trade them in one day for something comfortable. The 20-30 somethings that give up their bikes will still have a midlife crisis in their 50's and go out and buy a bike. I really cannot think of a brand with a stronger following. I wonder how many hippies in the 60 and 70's were buying hogs? A bunch of those hippies own Harleys now... I was going to say: To me their fans retiring is good. That's when it is most worth it to go drop $30K on a bike to cruise your CPA ass around. I also agree that pretty much everyone on a rice burner or a ducati or BMW would rather have a hog if they had the cash. I too missed HOG during the recession due to fear (although I bought DFS, WFM, DNKN and UA pretty much at the bottom, but I sold them all WAAAAAAAAAY too early. Lesson learned, hopefully. I just started looking at it though and haven't bought any yet. Didn't they have some labor problems that got them into trouble in the great recession?

Exactly this. It's natural to be a little worried when the sums become bigger, but keep in mind that it's always been and always will be a percentage of your savings anyway -- regardless of whether it's $1,000 (out of $10,000) or $100,000 (out of $1,000,000). My usual response to posts by these two guys: Ditto.

Lance, who is your broker? haha! Just kidding, I appreciate your willingness to share your ideas/moves.

Lame. Larry Fink wants your 401(k) account and is singing for his supper. The capital that is returned to the actual owners of the business doesn't evaporate, for fooks sake. It is actually just going to be allocated without the agency problems. Management can't be bothered to land the corporate jet for an hour to file a report to the owners of the business on their plans for the owners' capital? If you've got a nice 5 year 30% IRR project just make your case and don't crap yourself and start blowing shareholder's money on investment banks and lawyers the moment anyone other than your uncle wants a slot on the board to limit your stock options to $50 million a quarter.

Any idea what was the stock he was talking about that led to founding the VIC? I've heard the story before and thought it was a story about discovering Michael Burry, but I'm not sure.

Yeah, not sure why i had $5 bil in my head. Wonder how he feels about them getting into bed right after he caled out pe in his letter. Not aure he can say much as the 3g deals dwarf this.

Really? $5 bil is a ~4.5% position, no?

I watch "the note" on the FT youtube channel. I sort of feel sorry for him now that he seems to be in NYC with a bunch of cubes with people chattering away loudly behind him when he tries to film it. He used to be in their London location with a view in the background and he could actually have guests and whatnot. I wish the FT would sell out to Bloomberg and pump up a US version and use the rest of the paper with the INTL coverage to fill in all of the other sections in the WSJ that I don't care about, including opinion, NY metro, weak world coverage, basically 80% of the paper. I would subscribe so hard.

Maybe I should take another crack at Security Analysis if and when I get through my kindle library and unread stuff in my bookcases. I made a go of it as a teen and didn't make it through. I put it aside and went for intelligent investor (and maybe some WEB books by hagstrom) instead.

I think I read somewhere that the average american works 2 out of every 5 days (or something like that) just to pay for their lifetime automobile related expenses.

They tell that story complete with video from Mr. Keogh in the remembering episode hyperlinked above. It was pretty funny! Also had some funny stuff about New Coke.