John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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Encore! [Attached, source: Twitter]
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Offtopic:
Welcome to CoBF, compoundvalue!
Back to topic.
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... However, if you subtract what you evaluate to be the “cushion required” for unusual insurance losses, the upward trend in cash accumulated versus potential opportunities since 2008-9 is greatly magnified.
So this is not a forecasting tool but it would tend to go against the remain fully invested at all times rule and certainly gives credence to the idea that cash may be a call option on opportunities.
No?
At least to me, very good points, Cigarbutt,
I think we should look at what Mr. Buffett actually do, not what he says [also posted by several board members here on CoBF earlier], ref. the "Stocks are still cheap" interview recently, where it was evident, that he was actually speaking relatively to other available investment alternatives in the current interest rate environment.
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Recently, I have started reading these.
Here is a link to the last one, actually just released today.
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This is a question directed to Valuehalla, I think. I certainly understand your calculations, and also your reasoning. It has - at least to me - a lot of sound reasoning.
However, I have one question, though - actually two, I think.
1. What's your mental model for considering your cash level [based on look through considerations] in your total portfolio while doing this? [Meaning totally specific: If I asked you today: "How much cash do you hold today in your investable portfolio?"] [Also, please don't take my question too literally ...]
2. What do you think about having a look trough floating cash level, out of your own control? [Within quarters, ref. Berkshire reporting available to you]?
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Edit:
Elaboration to #1:
Perhaps a calculation like this:
[Cash plus value of T-Bills minus the USD 20 B "rainy day"/ Berkshire Crisis Fund money]/share, divided by price/share. [for your Berkshire position]
- I'm trying to understand fully how you think about this. [ : -) ]
Valuahalla preferred to answer this post to me directly by PM, which I will not go in detail with here.
But I'll mention, that Valuehalla consider the cash and T-Bills at hand at Berkshire [his share of it] his dry powder cash, immediately available for the Berkshire investment team, i.e. a look through view.
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Somehow a bit related: SA: Don't forget To Copy Warren Buffett's Biggest Position.
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Agreed, a very good interview, and very much in line with the last issued memo from Mr. Marks.
The themes in the memo and Mr. Mark's doubts all add up to: "Proceed with caution" in the memo, like in the interview.
That's all good, but the real question is, how do you quantify/materialize that into your investing actions here and now at these market levels we experience right now [naturally based on your specific portfolio composition right now].
This weekend I have asked my self the question, what does it take to be eligible to use the phrase: "It's Deja Vu all over again!" in investing, while a crash is happening? I can't come up with any other answer than: "You have to have tried it, to find out if you're good at it."
I haven't [tried it].
Then I ask my self the question: "In which other professional discipline does it especially qualify by having tried to be spanked - other than investing and spanking?" Then I end up confused.
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My favorite leisure activity in the weekends these days is to read old topics here on CoBF. The search feature on this board I actually call my Hubble Telescope. It's actually even better than the Hubble Telescope, because CoBF was folded out by Sanjeev, from nothing, 8 days before everything stopped contracting, and the whole messy thing butommed out.
So, in a sense, I can look back to just a bit before in time of the Big Bang. At least to me, it's better than reading a damn good book. Because I have never been there.
Personally, I will recommend this leisure activity to every board member, who started investing at least some time after the GFC [Like I have].
You can do the travel in time, simply by looking up Sanjeev's board profile, then by clicking on his posts, and then by chosing his first post. Then you just go from there on your own.
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Thank you, scorpioncapital,
The article refers to a Bloomberg article, which is here: Bloomberg: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Buys Stake in Pilot Flying J.
In the article:
Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed, but the Bloomberg Billionaraires Index values the business at $9.1 billion, and calculates the Haslam family's 50.1 percent stake at $4.5 billion. -
Here's the Reed Hastings letter to Tilson. Worth reading:
What's your personal take on this, especially from the angle that it's on SA, Liberty?
Personally, I'm in doubt about what to think. Naturally shorting is ruthless, if you are wrong. Personally, I do not short, and if I did short, I would never even think about shorting a company's stock which was run by a friend. It would just be a no-go.
Just pay back time?
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It's good logic, Cigarbutt.
And it's your call to move it, in case. You have as the OP the buttons to do the move, at your personal discretion.
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OECD: Economic Survey Italy February 2017.
It's such a depressing read. There are so many issues. Where to start and where to finish? It must be lack of political willingness and decisiveness to really make changes to the better, where it will hurt in the short run, to get better in the long run. I think irresponsible politicians.
A nation with approx. EUR 320 B non performing loans on the balance sheets of its banks at some date in 2016. It's not only mind boggling, it's also ridiculous. Lots of zombie lending clients in the banks walking around dead, without the appropriate neck shot and liquidation af assets, simply because the bank can't afford the loss on its capital. Pure Stockholm syndrome. Consequense: Phony bank balance sheets & zombie banks.
The fundamental question in all banking business: "Who is this going to be a pitty for, if it goes wrong?" has lost its meaning.
There is a long way home.
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Perhaps we will se more Berkshire deals like this, based on opportunities caused by local conditions.
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Good points, rb. Thank you for sharing.
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I have tried to find some financial data about the company, but basically to no avail.
The only thing I found was this page on Forbes.
I suppose the company has a lot of real estate on its balance sheet.
Furthermore, I have been thinking about the accounting treatment of this investment. With an ownership stake at approx. 39 per cent, I think it will be one line consolidation as accounting principle, like for KHC, but not with a separate line in the Berkshire group balance sheet because of its minor size.
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Maybe we don't hear enough from Italy these days. ...
Personally I think we don't hear much about the problems in Italy simply because Italy isen't really fixing the problems with its banks.
The shareholder letter in the 2016 Annual Report for Banca Populara di Vicenza is an interesting read.
I speculate Berkshire bought it because it could steal it.
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Thank you Dynamic!
I believe that this thread was about new ideas or new trading opportunities coming up. ...
+1, Cardboard - agreed. Personally, I speculate this is one of the most valueable topics on this board for fellow board members.
If we try to be constructive and responsive to input achieved, we will most likely all fare better.
Peace.
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Thank you very much for sharing your critical notes about this book with us all, Liberty,
It's actually much appreaciated.
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For my part, it's never too late to learn. I may buy the book anyway, thereby combining your comments with the reading of the book.
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This is a question directed to Valuehalla, I think. I certainly understand your calculations, and also your reasoning. It has - at least to me - a lot of sound reasoning.
However, I have one question, though - actually two, I think.
1. What's your mental model for considering your cash level [based on look through considerations] in your total portfolio while doing this? [Meaning totally specific: If I asked you today: "How much cash do you hold today in your investable portfolio?"] [Also, please don't take my question too literally ...]
2. What do you think about having a look trough floating cash level, out of your own control? [Within quarters, ref. Berkshire reporting available to you]?
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Edit:
Elaboration to #1:
Perhaps a calculation like this:
[Cash plus value of T-Bills minus the USD 20 B "rainy day"/ Berkshire Crisis Fund money]/share, divided by price/share. [for your Berkshire position]
- I'm trying to understand fully how you think about this. [ : -) ]
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It's a bit funny to read, DooDiligence, actually,
I have been a bit active - call it just self-appointed couch moderator, absolutely uncalled for - to save some gold here on CoBF with regard to Berkshire stuff, and with the aim to keep the board temperature down, by trying also to avoid annoyance of other board members.
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Trying to be constructive with the use of good mood has a fairly good success rate, if you are among constructive and rational thinking persons, like here on CoBF.
CoBF instantly caught self awareness under the "Big Bang" [it got folded out by Sanjeev at February 1, 2009 - basically out of nothing, except a very good user base pre "Big Bang" on another board [Yahoo?], now gone, I think.
Somehow, it has now gone to the level of getting self moderating, based on cooperative interaction among fellow board members.
Isen't that something very special, in its very own league? - At least to me, it is.
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- Now back to Berkshire General News, & Peace.
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You are forgiven, DooDiligence, [ ; - ) ]
The board members interested in this transaction will get it right anyway, by reading the whole board.
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gg & xo 1,
Sound sceptisism has never hurt anyone. There was a link to an interview with Mr. Buffett here on CoBF yesterday, where Mr. Buffett mentioned, that he was aware of that case.
Do you have some sources to share, to drag us all out of our ignorance?
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Not that I believe it will happen, but if there is an ounce of justice in the business, this stock should be a zero.
Companies have been bankrupted for far less negligence.
So true, Spekulatius,
This is certainly severe, thereby the company is simply not investable. The whole apperatus in the US hasen't started yet - I wonder what it will bring? Think the big US banks post GFC, think the Macondo Blow Out, think Volkswagen. The real culprits stand in court, pulling their pockets in their trousers inside out, stating: "I have no money", and the real risk takers - the shareholders - end up picking up the tap at the bar.
US logic.
Do you recognize the pattern?: New York Times: Equifax Breach Caused by Lone Employee’s Error, Former C.E.O. Says.
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I hereby suggest a topic split to to here for discussion of the Berkshire Pilot Flying J aquisition in detail.
It deserves its own topic, I think.
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Placeholder for discussion of the Berkshire Pilot Flying J acquisition.
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Quite some posts about this Berkshire aquisition in the general news topic as by now. I think it deserves its own separate topic.
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There are some very interesting posts about Berkshire within the last few days in this topic. They are from fellow board members, that have started going really heavy on Berkshire, long term, years ago. [Dynamic, longinvestor, Valuehalla among others, at least].
I hereby suggest that you repost [just cut and paste from here, and use an appropriate topic title] the relevant posts in separate topics in the Berkshire Hathaway forum here on CoBF, so we can discuss in full lenght there, under appropriate topic titles, so that this topic does not get clogged further up by Berkshire discussion, causing annoyance among other fellow board members, ref. the post from cardboard a few days ago.
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In short, there is no need to annoy fellow board members not particulary interested in Berkshire, and there is no need to burry Berkshire discussion gold in this topic, when we already have a separate Berkshire forum available. [ : - ) ]
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I'm curious about your data source about the operating income, dartmonkey, and I hope you will share it.
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted
Wow!, Jeff. Thanks for sharing.