John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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I found it as No.15 on Forbes list of largest US private companies.
Sales of USD 19.62 B.
Employees: 27,100.
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This must be fairly big. That flying thing actually has 770 locations.
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Added more BRK.B today.
I think perhaps it would be appropriate with a correction/elaboration to this post of mine here, ref. the responses from rb and Dooligence [,and also my response to rb - especially].
I have added quite some cash within the last few weeks, so I have actually reduced the relative Berkshire position [, and reduced all other relative positions more, viewed over the same time horizon].
Right now, I'm at 22 per cent in Berkshire, and 16 per cent in cash, with no intention to reduce cash, right now.
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As mentioned by longinvestor some time ago here on CoBF, we all - each individually - do what we feel comfortable with.
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Boston is not cheap, but way cheaper than SF/Silly Valley.
Chicago is cheap, but the question is whether they can recover from their issues or if they do a Detroit.
I am not RE investor/expert. 8)
Thanks for putting your shade on this, Jurgis, and thanks for sharing,
Re investor/expert or not, ref. your own self-perception in your post: Personally, I put more trust in a post from you, based on your local observations, rather than putting weight to some UBS report.
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New York City isn't cheap at all. But if you buy a multi-family and put 20-30% down and take out a fixed 30 year mortgage, the rental incomes can service the mortgage quite well. Hence, this provides "staying power" to the owners in case of a 2008/2009 event. This is my experience from the Class B assets near public transportation. I think for a bubble to occur, it would involve some sort of inability to hold onto the assets when the market is stressed. I kind of hate saying this because the market is certainly not cheap. It never was in NYC.
Thanks for your input here, BG2008,
To me, there are quite some points to your post here:
1. 20 - 30 percent down payment to do the investment does not come out of the blue sky. It requires hard work to create after tax earnings, combined with savings behavior.
2. The ability to hold on to the asset - through thick and thin - is absolutely crucial, so that you decide, when it's appropriate time to get out of the investment, to the contrary of your financing sources - who always "want you to quit" at the buttom.
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Money can still be made in every market, that is constantly expensive.
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are other municipalities having budget problems like chicago is?......the story is that high taxes coupled with the crime is driving people out of the state.....and even the state is having issues.
lots of my friends have left for california...i chose colorado.
Simply mind boggling to me to loose regularly & close relationships to friends because of what's going on locally. Are you still your self in the Michigan area, Dough?
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Love to know how they come up with the score.
They didn't put any of the mainland Chinese cities on there. Shanghai, Beijing gotta be way up there, if not #1 and 2. The typical explaination: 1) no real estate tax, so virtually zero carry cost, 2) little alternatives to preserve value in RMB denominated asset. ...
Good points, HJ. Much appreciated, ref. my own ignorance and biases.
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I have spent some time today, trying to add some dots to my mental landscape, and trying to do at least something about my ignorance about what's going on in the World.
Based on what's been going on, on my LinkedIn wall, especially a report from UBS caught my attention:
UBS [2017.09.28]: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index.
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Full report attached [Downloadable directly from the article, so it must be eligible to attach it here, I think].
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A few observations:
1. Vancouver and Toronto are on the top of the list. No surprise, and very well documented and discussed by fellow board members, with knowledge about that, here on CoBF.
2. To my personal surprise, I see Stockholm as # 2 on the bubble list. If it's not too much to ask, I would really like my fellow Swedish board members to chim in here.
3. New York and Boston are stated as "fairly priced" in the analysis. To me personally, that's a surpirse, too. Any comments on that from fellow board members would be appreciated very much, too.
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I haven't dived in any way deep into methology etc. as basis for the report. So, I'm not in any way here backing conclusions referred to etc. I just want to hear what pop up in the minds of fellow board members with local knowledge, based on charts etc., and all push back & critisism welcome.
Thank you in advance.
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Not exactly what you requested, SlowAppreciation,
but I found this article on CNBC: JPMorgan becomes just seventh bank to cover Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, calling it a screaming buy.
Gesture of mutual goodwill, perhaps?
I wonder which bank will have the nuts to publish a sell ratings on Brk? It will be instant fame but high risky move.
First of all, that bank will have to develop a sell case, based on recent price and released data from Berkshire HQ. To me, that's a tough one, compared to available investment alternatives, right now.
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Someone on here I think put together a BRK look-through earnings spreadsheet. Personally I found it a little overwhelming to look at, but I believe others find it very useful.
I'm in the process of building a 13F screener, and look-through earnings will be included in it. Will take another month or two but I'll post it here once it's completed.
Thanks for the feedback on how overwhelming it is to look at.
I'm so used to my layout that I can just jump to the info I need, but I can see it would be useful to add a summary worksheet that appears first, showing much simpler more digestible information.
A project for the future perhaps.
I'll try to post a new topic if I complete that so that those reading the forum would know about it having changed.
Dynamic
Glad you're open to feedback, and sorry if I came off as critical. I know there's tons of very useful information in there, but I just get overwhelmed with all the colors and various columns. I have many models/spreadsheets that only I really understand how they work, and I realize it's a challenge to present the data in a way that is both comprehensive and easy for someone who is completely new to the data to understand.
Very good and constructive communication, Dynamic & SlowAppreciation,
Spread sheets are what they are - always a child of the creator. It has never happened - when things are complex - like here - that the receiver has in all detail perceived "the message" from the creator of the sheet, the way it was meant.
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That is true, LC,
- And that's also what makes it complicated [situation dependant].
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I can't, rb,
There is a 20 per cent limit here in Denmark with regard to position size in tax deferred accounts. [<- It's just soo lame!] - Furthermore, I have come to like the whole game too much!
But yes, I sit on a boat load of BRK.B now, quite some above 20 per cent, I think - I've been buying for more than five years now. Right now, I'm in doubt about what the most valuable asset in the household is... Shares in BRK.B, the value of the our home, cash, or the value [to me] of the Lady of the House ...
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[Fortunately, the Lady of the House is not a board member, and she does not read the board as a lurker ... - Otherwise, I would most likely be slapped - hard - because of this post!]
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Added more BRK.B today.
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Thank you for sharing that Twitter thread, Liberty,
It says a lot about Mr. Tilson, as a person.
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If you end up in a game with regard to work, that is not you, so that you feel miserable while going to work in the morning, it's just time to call it a day. It's life expectancy reducing, if one don't act on it. The rest is just money - your own, or the money of other people.
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Here we try to go again.. Mr. Market take the hammer pls
I keep seeing news stories in the last 12 hours or so about the crash, but I own Amazon, Apple, Tesla, Overstock, and none of them went down very much yesterday and they are all up today. On what planet did the this tech crash happen? It wasn't this one.
As Valuehalla has posted about him self before here on CoBF, he is a day watcher, and a decade trader. [ : - ) ]
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Ummm.... Buffett? Really surprised he's not on the list.
Too old ;)
He is somehow out of date, one foot in the grave, the other in "old economy" [read "on the top of a banana shell"]. [j/k]
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Dynamics work on it in Google Sheets can be found here on CoBF.
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Not that I believe it will happen, but if there is an ounce of justice in the business, this stock should be a zero.
Companies have been bankrupted for far less negligence.
So true, Spekulatius,
This is certainly severe, thereby the company is simply not investable. The whole apperatus in the US hasen't started yet - I wonder what it will bring? Think the big US banks post GFC, think the Macondo Blow Out, think Volkswagen. The real culprits stand in court, pulling their pockets in their trousers inside out, stating: "I have no money", and the real risk takers - the shareholders - end up picking up the tap at the bar.
US logic.
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Viking asked me yesterday in the C topic in the Investment Ideas forum, what I'm reading to try keep my self just a bit updated on what's going on in the separate European countries.
Personally, I'm very well aware of, that I'm not at all a macro guy, and that I suffer from several biases about that, based on what I read and hear in the news on daily basis about what's going on in different parts of Europe, while personally located up here in the Northern part of Europe, where living conditions etc. in general are good. It's also about working on my ignorance about what's going on in the world in general, while trying to understand why things are different somewhere else.
I don't follow or read a number of blogs on that matter. In stead, I read the OECD iPapers released on www.oecd.org .
Here is a link to the main site diving into each OECD country with regard to Economic Surveys. Naturally one has to be aware of the release date of each separate report. The reports are basically subscription protected, but one can read them online. The reports might at first glance seem daunting, but if you take a look at the table of contents, you'll notice that it's thematic, so that you are able to dive into exactly the topic that's on your mind and of interest for you.
Here is a link to the main site into OECD Economic Outlooks, Analysis and Forecasts, containing reports and a lot of data, downloadable to Excel. [That fits me very well, because I'm a numbers guy!]
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So it boils down to bullshit avoidance,
Seek out things that make a difference,
Stay away from the toxic,
Be unconventional and authentic. ...
Thank you for gold here, Cigarbutt.
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It is what it is, WneverLOSE,
Projections.
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I'll stick with the ones I selected in the previous "Your 2017 Best Ideas" topic that was made in January 2017:
... NVO - Novo Nordisk (still cheap compared to their long term average, peers and return to shareholder perspective, with impressive ROA in the 40% range); ...
No post from me so far in this topic about the topic title, but I have to agree with you here, Sharad. However it's not for everyone to be invested in NVO. Basically, it's GARP investing, and a very bumpy ride ... - at least it has been so for the last few years. I certainly agree with you using a long term lens.
Thank you John,
I'm still looking at other Danish companies, especially CHR Hansen. I'll be buying a 20% position soon, with intention to buy more when it (finally) pulls back. If you have any new news on it, I'd appreciate it (maybe it can be a 2018 pick).
Hi Sharad,
Chr. Hansen Holding A/S is to me a wonderful business. The stock price nowadays, however, is not - at least to me. We're talking a P/E in the 40-50 range. That's just not for me.
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With all due respect for the topic - and its intent - here, and all the constructive posts from fellow board members in this topic: My best idea right now is cash. I'll add quite a lot more cash within a few days, to reduce all positions. Furthermore, I expect to sell something in 2017Q4, to raise even more cash.
I'm looking into Danish small cap banks, though, but I'm in no hurry with that. [it's messy.]
This line of thinking might be dead for me tomorrow, and I might be deemed thumb sucking. In that case, it will not be the first time.
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Let me just post here, that I have also noticed, that some very contributing fellow board members here on CoBF, have not posted that much here on CoBF recently - that's not meant as some kind of critism - just more of a fact - and I have personally thought about that.
Absolutely nobody mentioned, but everybody specicifically remembered, each in their very own way, and silence in some way also still appreciated.
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I won't even apologize for stirring the fun pot here, but why even look around anywhere, when there is fun here too:
In the Apple topic in the Investment Ideas forum:
... Still using a 6 Plus & will prob wait for the next iteration of the X but I'm definitely getting a (v3) watch.I'll be able to wade fish up to my friggin' neck & still have music & comms.
Pics please!
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It's actually true, rkbabang,
On a more serious note: I perceive Italians are actually very tolerant people, with regard to dress code. I've never had a comment, when I've been there, even when I've been "almost overly relaxed" dressed, sometimes.
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The real joke here, is actually the sign to right of Mr. Taleb in the photo: Why do you take lectures from Mr. Taleb, if you're already doing business in Bermuda taking on insurance and reinsurance risk? - I do not recall exactly what longinvestor called this kind capital here on CoBF not so long ago, but it was not a positive label.
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Edit:
I hope it's evidient that I'm bored.
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
You are right, longinvestor. If you click on "locations" top right on main page, then on "all locations", you can actually download the whole thing to Excel. Lots of McDs, Wendies and Dairy Queens are mentioned as Facitilities/Restaurants.