John Hjorth

Viking, That reads like a terrible nightmare in full daylight. Imagine getting run over by a bus that you need a microscope to see. And the US healthcare authorities have had all the strategies executed on first in China, next all the European etc. strategies to study, copy & make adjustments to before execution - now for several weeks -, and now this.

lol!, Mike, I'll take the freedom to "remodel" that quoted part of your post : Hypothesis : "The last fool isn't dead yet." Proof [dated : March 4th 2020] : "BRKB 200-strike, March 6 expiration puts, $0.92 per share." QED. - - - o 0 o - - - Crazy stuff to read, Mike! -Please keep them coming! [ ; - ) ]

Pretty sound stuff there. I think the pre ample in the letter will go over in history, as a measurement & gauge for the future of how the actual sentiment has been changing recently. - - - o 0 o - - - I pretty much agree with rranjan. The applicability of the memo appears limited. We simply need to continue to do, what we all individually already do, at our individually very best.

Viking, To me actually quite striking, that the playbook suggested by Mr. McBride is to a wide extent similar to the playbook of the Danish Health Authority and the Danish Government [, naturally with some modifications related to differences in societal systems the US compared to Denmark].

Some hypothetical thoughts about the design of a gruesome experiment with an infectious virus on rats : 1. You put a large number of healthy rats in a large and sealed lab, where you can - on running basis - observe, what going on through a large glass wall. Let's call that large number X. 2. You're only allowed to observe and take notes, except for : 2a. Providing water & food to the rats in the lab, 2b. Cleaning the place on a regular basis [because you aren't an animal molester, right?] 2c. Remove any dead rats on an ongoing basis, as the experiment moves on over time. [You'll examine them for cause of death, too.] 3. Then you put that particular extra rat, which you - by injection - has infected with the virus into the lab, to start the experiment. - - - o 0 o - - - Now, let's set that large number X to 3,710 [so there are 3,711 rats in the experiment]. - - - o 0 o - - - Next, every place above, where I've written "rat"/"rats", you substitute that with "human being"/"human beings". - - - o 0 o - - - The difference between the experiment with rats and that with human beings is that the rats don't understand whats actually going on, while the human beings do, and individually try to take every measure possible for self-protection. - - - o 0 o - - - That experiment with human beings has a separate line in the daily WHO sit reports [the last one, actually], called "Princess Diamond" : Here are the numbers, based on WHO sit Report 42: Population : 3,711 [source : Here] Observed development period February 1st - March 2nd 2020 : Infections [called "confirmed cases"] : 706 [including the original infected specimen, that you added your self]. So infection rate is ~ [[706 - 1]/3,711] ~ 19 percent. Deaths : 6. So death rate is [6 / 3,711] ~ 0.16 percent.

Viking, To me - & in short - you're actually talking my book. What you've posted, just confirmed to me, that you can't silence science & facts persons. My basis is what's been going on within the last 5 days or so in my own country [Denmark]. In short, a dearly shape-up, leaving lies [lies, which even I understand & can relate to are lies], to real and fact based public communication to the Danish population, talk about different scenarios going forward, some of them really severe etc.]

I sense it that way as you, Viking, however I'm not sure. What I think is important to remember are a few things : 1. The strength and power of the US health care system. [Here I'm not talking about it's economic efficiency, the costs related to it and so on.] It's about its strength and power from a strictly professional angle. I think it actually can ramp up if it gets the funding needed [which I think it eventually will, based on political considerations] [if border walls qualify for POTUS emergency measures, I think this one will too.] Spekulatius has earlier in this topic shared some thoughts about 9/11 and US ramp up after that, I'm more thinking in line of an analogy to Pearl Harbour, well aware of that this is about some other kind of countermeasure. 2. In the US there are [sadly] now corps on the table. 3. Health care professionals [doctors, scientists etc.] operate and function in formal and informal digital networks, across borders and across societal system designs etc. I speculate the powers of these digital structures are great, based on sharing of thoughts, evidence, experience and so on, to tackle this challenge.

LC, That's wachtwoord's board signature, right?

WHO daily sit reports with numbers etc., for the numbers guys. Not that bad, I would say. But numbers guys always want more numbers, more data.

Good for you.

is this directed to any "you" or person in particular, or just a generic homeless person or drug addict? If you have read the posts here on CoBF within the last 10 years from SharperDingaan [i have, - [u]everyone of them[/u]], you wouldn't ask.

"Former" is the key to relate to that message. [useless.]

By far the most level headed logical approach to this situation. Castanza, "Level headed" ? - Please look at the "/6" and read it again. Basically all countermeasures to contain this thing are now enabled. It's BS.

Great idea with some anecdotal stuff about everyday life in this topic, Greg, Viking, If we project that first quoted part above of yours onto the investment sphere, isen't this then to decoded to that we are not near a buttom yet? - - - o 0 o - - - Thursday, I had a hypothecial discussion with the Lady of the House about what to do, if we were booked for a weeks stay or so in Milano. We quickly agreed on not to go, ref. my latter quote of yours. And that's no matter the terms in our travel insurance, which I haven't checked, because it's not relevant for us. Today we discussed it again. We agreed on "mutual veto", no matter what the future about this may bring. [We are in the same bed, thus also in the same boat. [ ; - ) ]] Three cases in Denmark. None in our city [Odense]. Life here continues as usual.

You fuggin' said it. What a week. Yeah, what a week. But you always have the opportunity to get even in weekends! - Every Saturday & Sunday is flat - get even!

Thank you, Castanza, I'm just trying to make a very specific point here - here we go : Please take a look here : There is no spread of the disease in Denmark. Please listen to the video pointed at 9:14 as start. [Not many here on CoBF can really understand, what this person is saying here. Among the active CoBF members, I suppose there are only kab60, Aurelius & I]]. Here is the abbreviation of the statement : "Even if three Danes are now contaminated, there is no spread of the disease in Denmark". (You have to take into consideration if I'm "playing" you, which I'm not - why should I?) The statement was made public by a public servant, called Senior Doctor Anne Hempel Jørgensen, Danish Patient Safety Authority. How on earth could that happen today here in Denmark? - It's out in the air, that at least 46 persons are in quarantine here in tiny Denmark? [With no reporting of the outcome of the quarantine right now?] Who should be in the public line for this? : My Prime Minister, or perhaps my Minister of Health? -It's not going to happen - like in the US - Instead, pick your "prügelknabe" [<- Spekulatius German term], loyal public servant, more or less worn out, ready to get paid for it [to take the fall]. The whole thing simply just stinks to me.

Dalal.Holdings, My point is merely, that every health care system in situations like this will eventually fail, if it's not saturated [by setup & design] by personal integrity, professionalism [professional independence [ <- ? ]] & intellectual honesty.

... This, along with the revelation of what happens when a marketing guy conman President faces a true crisis, may very well lead to the United States electing its very first socialist president in 2020. No POTUS sweat here, the task - and the political risk related to it - is already delegated to Mike Pence. If things go severely wrong and get out of hand, naturally, he will be to blame & take the fall, as a "failure", "incompetent person" & what do I know [honestly, I don't think my English active vocabulary suffice here] - like for so many other persons before him.

kab60, Have you had the time to follow how this has evolved & has been handled by the public authorities over the last few days here in Denmark? [i'm appalled and in some kind of state of shock because of it.] For info to all : We now have three confirmed cases here in tiny Denmark, which all track back to Northern Italy.

Mark Millard is a Berkshire Hathaway Vice President [please see inside back cover page of the 2019 Annual Report], and the provided telephone number appears to be Berkshire's main [desk] number [i.e. also used by Mr. Hamburg as contact node related to Press Releases].

Me too, Swedish_Compounder & LC.

I agree with Viking and Spekulatius, This is getting really bad and concerning. The best source I've found to look at data instead of reading headlines and other stuff all over the place is : Covid 2019 tracker. On the "About this site" tab is specifically mentioned the data basis [For everyone to make up their own mind about the reliability of the data basis].

Carrying some posts and quotes recently from another topic in the Berkshire Forum, to this topic : This would be a foolproof argument if they *could* easily buy oodles of stock over the market. But they can't. I'm not saying that he thinks it's at 50% of IV, but probably - at most - something like 80%. There is room to be somewhat more aggressive with bids over the market, but likely not as much as people seem to believe. If suddenly buyback volumes in a quarter were ratcheted up 100% from these levels, the stock would take off, making further buybacks that much harder. There is both a volume problem and a serious front-running issue. Also, as Munger expresed recently, other opportunities are dwindling while cash is growing. He has every incentive to undersell the fact that they were doing buybacks all the way up until Dec 31 and that's what the overall effect of the letter was, while still, oh-so-galantly, offering to relieve people of large blocks of stock. Just like he last did in the 1999 letter, mind you: I'm sorry, but I'm with Viking on this one. I don't buy the it's hard to buy stock argument. You have to keep in mind that this is Buffett we're talking about. He may be a geezer but he's probably one of the savviest stock traders that ever walked the face of the Earth. He didn't have a problem buying huge amounts of stock in ANY company if it meant making money. And we're not talking here just large companies like Coke and Apple. We're talking obscure shit like Sanford Map and other stuff. The man know how to buy stock if he wants to. But all of a sudden it's hard for him to buy stock in the 5th largest corporation in America? Nah man. If he's not buying huge amounts of stock is because he doesn't want to, not because he can't or doesn't know how. I guess Buffett is just completely full of shit here then: -Certainly an interesting discussion! [-and to me, more relevant in this topic][ : - ) ]

I thought it was interesting when he was talking about apple - a $75-80 Billion position for Berkshire - that he characterized it as their 3rd biggest commitment after Insurance and the Railroad. Which indicates roughly how he values those two businesses within Berkshire. Good one!, gfp, I did not personally catch that one on the fly. [Letters are good to have, interviews are good to have also, the combination of both is the best, - unfortunately not so much of the latter within the last year or so, ref. what alwaysinvert has posted recently in another topic not so long ago.]

Swedish_Compounder, The point of the SAI 2019 Client Letter in that regard is, that Mr. Bloomstran can't - because of Berkshire's reporting in 10-Ks & 10-Qs. You have to read the "If a Tree Falls in the Forest" section starting on p. 80 & ending on p. 84. It's pretty vocal and direct, peaking on p. 81 82 with : Furthermore : - I don't think it is forthcoming for a constructive discussion with the company about its reporting to involve the sisters of the controlling shareholder, Chairman & CEO - but Christ! - it's just entertainment value for free! [ : - ) ] - - - o 0 o - - - Mr. Bloomstran is a Berkshire reporting activist. - And I certainly think he has a point. - - - o 0 o - - - The methodical valuation framework is in the SAI 2015 Client Letter, which one always need for reference, while studying what is now gradually evolving to the Sagas of Icelanders.