John Hjorth

Sold a lot of INVE A.STO today at SEK 400, rolling the position back to full long term position - some client at ABN AMRO has been buying like crazy today. 5.9 percent gain in 15 days. No more fooling around - now back to investing.

Exactly, but anyway not. By that , I suppose, that you measure your day-today return is measured for you in USD by your broker. Yes. I haven't looked at what currencies did. Actually lot today, Jurgis. - All those moving wheels!

Exactly, but anyway not. By that , I suppose, that you measure your day-today return is measured for you in USD by your broker.

Exactly two weeks ago I posted on this board: It was a "reporting bet" - exactly 2 weeks ago - nothing expected to be changed - except reporting. What has happened? : INVE A has moved from SEK 177.90 to SEK 196.90, within exatly two weeks - that's a 183,47 percent gain - on annual basis - within two weeks. What have I done?: Absolutely nothing. Here is what I could have done, beside nothing: a. Put a sales order in the market, instead of keeping my nose at the monitor for several days. b. Ask the Lady of the House out for lunch, instead of keeping my nose at the monitor the whole day today, c. Ask the Lady of the House out for dinner, in stead of keeping my nose at the monitor the wole day today. What happened at Nasdaq OMX Sweden closing today?: I got hit by hubris - The Boris syndrome. After that, I checked out the US market - SAN was up closer to 7 per cent than 6 per cent [A larger position than INVE A]... - - - o 0 o - - - Time to get back to investing ...

SharperDingaan, Late reply here, but I haven't forgotten. I think your post here was - at least partially - adressed to me . - And I have vacation the coming week - please read : more time for investing work - studying and reading. About four and a half year ago I invested in the Supermajors, Statoil, Lukoil and Gazprom [material overweight to Lukoil and Gazprom] - as a basket - at that time about 18 percent of portfolio, I think. I have diversified out these positions by adding to AUM a lot - without adding to those oil stocks -, on total family level - ten times or the like. Honestly, it's nagging me - because of mediocre results so far - compared to about everything else I have done. So: Where do I start, to get this about right [all over again]? - Perhaps it is not at all for me ... Your insights, comments and directions will be much appreciated.

Sanjeev, It reads to me that the book is "built" over many years - Berkshire style - better and better for every "yearly edition" - year by year, and has evolved to a behemoth, based on the long tough haul! Now I really can't wait to get it in my hands!

scorpioncapital, I would say good, ref. 2016 10-K, p. 15. It's a huge value investing franchise over six asset classes & investment types.

lol! Thanks for the advice about how to handle and approach this brick, longinvestor! The Lady of the House will most likely shake her head again - Last time was when I bought both the English and Swedish version of the Investor AB 100 years Anniversary book. She did not understand why I really needed both versions. When I'm reading the financials of Svenska Handelsbanken AB - on/off - [244 pages], she asks me : "What's so interesting about that light blue old fashion community telephone book? - is it the Swedish verson this time, or the English?" ...

I got hit by this "I must have it" feeling and ordered it. Sometimes it costs a bit to be a Berkaholic. Thank you for your posts, Marlin & Sanjeev. I'm looking forward to the read.

DONG Energy awarded three German offshore wind projects. The two of the projects won based on zero subsidy per MW. That's a milestone. It's based on expected technology change going forward, to bigger offshore wind turbines of the size 13 - 15 MW, where the biggest ones right now as far as I know are from MHI Vestas at 9 MW. I have actually looked closer at DONG Energy A/S as investment recently. I'm a CPA, but I don't understand their financials - I simply can't read them [<-!].

Added a bit to BRK.B today.

Jurgis, I just hope that the extra proceeds from the enormous Berkshire position in WFC ends up in something that has the capacity to suffer - something antifragile ... not airlines! - Time will tell.

Berkshire starts selling WFC shares, to keep position on 10 per cent, or just below. Edit: What's next with regard to Berkshire and bank stocks long term? Building a position in JPM? Or a merger between WFC and JPM? If this continues long term, Berkshire will own about 10 per cent of the whole US banking system, without even being a bank holding company - I'm just speculating and kidding here.

Dirt from Bloomberg: Ex Lone Star Funds Executive Loses 225 Million Divorce Appeal. Somehow hilarious, despite I'm not mean. It's not about the loss of the 225 M, more about getting a court ruling stating that your're not genious under such circumstances. Talk about litigation risk here. Certainly understandable that Mr. Work is not smiling on the photo.

Wkipedia: Libor Scandal. It was about fraudulent reporting while knowing the reporting was for the purpose of setting an interest rate benchmark. Certainly interesting, if Bank of England now gets dragged into this.

I certainly agree with longinvestor here, with regard to BV anchoring. I still don't fully get your reasoning, SlowAppreciation. I will - like longinvestor - just await the write up. I bought a bit more today, by the way.

Added a bit to BRK.B today.

notorious546, cubsfan is referring to, that Mr. Combs worked for a time as a Florida bank regulator after graduating from Columbia.

SlowAppreciation, Why are you looking at Berkshire earnings pre tax?

Thanks, cubsfan. Good point.

Just some more or less random thoughts here, longinvestor, Some more dots here, without trying to connect them all: I was very surprised, when I read Todd Combs would join the board at JPM. That board seat seems to me be quite "heavy", involving a lot of work, along with Mr. Combs work as Berkshire investment manager. I was also surprised to read page p. 44 in Mr. Dimons 2016 JPM Shareholder Letter. Link. I did not know about any close contact between Mr. Buffett and Mr. Dimon before that. I suppose that this particular public initiative must have involved intense discussions, meetings etc. Most likely, Mr. Buffet is giving his two money managers leeway to build up their network of contacts. That is good. Ref. the 2016 Berskhire Shareholder Letter issued this year, the two investment managers run about USD 21B in total, of which USD 7.6B is pension trust assets of certain Berkshire subs. The total stock portfolio is in the shareholder letter stated to about USD 122B at 2016 year end, ex. KHC. I have several times asked my self the following question: "If I had the opportunity to ask Mr. Buffett to draw a group chart of the Berkshire companies, what would he do in the drawing with: AXP, KO, IBM & WFC?" - - - o 0 o - - - With regard to the successor of Mr. Buffett, we all speculate, including me. My speculative guess is still the best person within Berkshire to evaluate risk, despite age. - - - o 0 o - - - With regard to the Vice Chairman position on the Berkshire board, I think we must all live with what to come on that position - unless any of us die before Mr. Munger. To me, there is nobody like Mr. Munger out there.

INVE A.STO A lot of it, this morning, as a trade on the 1st quarter 2017 reporting for Investor AB with regard to reported Net Asset Value end of March 2017, where I expect a material increase, perhaps as much as SEK 30B, primarily related to wholly owned Mölnlycke. 1st quarter report will be out 24th April at 12:00 CET. If interested, please take a look at the powerpoints in the clip from the Investor AB Capital Market Day held in Stockholm on 30th March 2017, especially the powerpoints at the 0:40:38 mark. [You can see the powerpoints if you do not run the clip in full screen mode, and you can navigate the clip by just clicking on the powerpoints.] I will roll the position back to full long term position, with proceeds back in to cash, no later than end May this year. Perhaps the conglomarate discount on Investor will just increase materially. I will for sure find out.

Pelagic, To most of the extent of your post, I personally agree. In short: Mr. Buffett has written in the BRK Shareholder Letters, that this is about a "social contract" - [bRK: You make sure we make some decent money on our capital invested, and we will make sure you have access to energy ...]. - Germany is [to me, at least it seems to me] - just different. A deal is a deal - a handshake is a handshake - except in Germany, where it to me seems obvious, that everything already agreed on, can be [political] subject of discussion. I will never pour capital into that industry in Germany again.

Jurgis and Cardboard, I remembered reading this article some time ago: Danes invent safe nuclear power plant. I'm not an engineer, but from reading the article and taking it at face value, some problems with nuclear power today seem to be related to the technology chosen in the early days of nuclear power.

Thank you for an excellent post here, kab60. Mr. Taleb defines an antifragile thing as a thing, that gains strength, when it is subject to disorder, stress, headwind and punches from some direction, perhaps several. I have had severe second thoughts going forward in recent months with an intention to buy more of long term positions, and I have been struggling with getting some structure on my thinking. Here is what I have started to do - position by position: 1. I go back to the '08 financials of the company and study it, trying to find answers to the following questions: 1a. What was the financial position and overall condition of the company then [in most cases - just around early spring '09 - thereby near the buttom]. 1b. What did the management then express of expectations going forward - short term, mid term and long term. 1c. What did the management express in the spring '09 that it would do short term, based on 1a combined with 1b. 2. Then I look at the '09 and '10 financials from the same angle , as mentioned under bullet 1 - including specifically looking for hindsight bias in the management and chairman letters for those years. 3. Then I take a look at "now" - the '16 financials, and ask my self the questions while reading: 3a. What is the financial position of the company now? 3b. What changes has been made to management, investment strategy etc. since '08 - '09? We all now know in clear hindsight, that the worst action - then - was to panic near the buttom and go on the side line for a period of some extent. So far, I have looked at BRK, INVE A.STO, LUND B.STO, INDU C.STO and SCHO.CPH this way. What has been really striking to me, is that they have all been overall faithfull to their investment process, investment policy, policies about use of leverage etc., all actions based on expressed expections near the button in the spring of '09.