John Hjorth

Full respect for your last post, Artha158, It is quite symptomatic for this board, that the daily ongoing discussion right now has switched to the discussion of the most crappy capital allocation of all: Cars. [Fellow board members active in that particular car topic: Please take no offense here].

Pete & Jurgis, The more I think of it, the more I come to the conclusion, that it's actually true what you are posting. It's so Fairfax specific on this board - for historical reasons. It's cyclical push back on the board. I love it, because one always learn something from it, no matter where the sentiment pendulum is with regard to Fairfax. - - - o 0 o - - - With Berkshire it is totally different on this board - Imagine the mud slinging from the Berkaholics that would take place if some presumptuous board member would dare to post in the separate Berkshire forum that he or she has started to short the heck out of Berkshire! - Perhaps even calling it a turd! Sanjeev would become soo busy! lol. - - - o 0 o - - - Now back to Fairfax.

You are just the concept of an extraordinary good person, Joel. The Fairfax story over time is just almost as impressive as the Berkshire story.

I had to read your post three times, Uccmal, to get it it right. [Hopefully I got it right after the third reading.] It is about being prepared for the next downturn. [ref. your separate topic about that.] - - - o 0 o - - - Welcome back posting. If you're still in France, please enjoy your stay onwards with your family. If you're back in Toronto right now, welcome to reality. [ : - ) ]

Added to JPM today.

YouTube: Howard Marks: The Memo: There They Go Again....Again.

Yes, this is exceptional, longinvestor, Mr. Abel is building up maximum pressure by lobbying. Reuters: Elliott wins more time to beat Berkshire Hathaway's Oncor deal. This is getting as exciting as a high quality crime novel.

I'm in the same camp as you, Jurgis, after a quick read late last night. I will have to reread Mr. Mark's memo in depth in the weekend to come. I ended up very confused by doing the quick read.

Sunrider, I think it would be appropriate to add a poll option called: "I don't know" [at least for my part]. [ : - ) ]

Started a small position in SHB B.STO [svenska Handelsbanken AB, ser. B] today, after having studied the bank on/off for more than a year. Ultra brief thesis on SA here. [it's to me not totally head on, in the meaning there is something to add.] In the Book Forum here on CoBF there is this topic about a book about the bank.

Wrote some BRKB Aug 11 expiration, 170-strike puts for $1.45 per share. I wish I could do something like this, but not possible because of a tax regime that could be considered from the Dark Ages.

Based on what has been discussed in this topic so far, - especially longinvestor's starting post - I have decided to do a visit to Indexville going forward, in the coming period - it will not be extensive, and it will be on some kind of on/off basis - when I'm in the mood to do so, so it will take some time. It's about working on my total ignorance in the area. It's also about what to say to the Lady of the House about what to do with the whole Holly-go-Molly the morning I wake up dead.

Texas is tired of the bankruptcy. They want to be done with it. Berkshire is playing that, surely. Mr. Buffet is a bridge player - I suppose he is not that bad at playing poker, either.

NasDAQ.com - Market Chatter: Berkshire Hathaway Warns Will Walk Away from Oncor if Dates Not Met.

In general I agree with your post, StevieV, What I was trying to express, was that it has has been hard for me to suppress my mental propensity to buy the techs. It is that propensity, that I personally find hard to cope with. I like them all [the techs], and what they do for us all, it's just too much GARP investing for me.

Tremendous post, snow pea, Please keep them coming, thank you.

With regard to the first sentence of your post, longinvestor, I just have to steal the content of a very short post made by rb here on CoBF recently in another topic: "I'll steal that line!" [Please feel free to call it "double-stealing" - for my part! [lol]]. That first line of yours, in your last post in this topic - is to me - just so true. It is all about being consistent to your thesis, and at the same time being factual, looking at the facts, as is. The facts that matters to you, may be totally different between each of us. We simply can't all be right on this, nor all be wrong. - Again, I hereby nominate you, longinvestor, as candidate to the CoBF poster of this week. - - - o 0 o - - - "The real problem" here is, what's going on in ones brain with regard to "opportunity cost" - the techs have been smoking BRK dearly for quite some time. It's just so increadibly hard to cope with, mentally. Personally, I think I'm getting better at this game, - mentally -, over time. That does not imply, that I'm good at it, yet, nor that I'll ever be. - - - o 0 o - - - It's just such a fascinating experience to push ones own mind absolutely to the limit, which is to me, what I'm doing here.

valueinvesting101, I'm pretty sure, you can't find that in the Yahoo clip.

I really like the approach of yours to the Berkshire float in post #84, rb, Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I had a number inside my head in the same range while I was thinking about doing a calculation based on the information in the 10-Ks and discounting it with a WACC, just by looking on the numbers and without doing the calculations. So in the area of USD 30B it is, give or take a bit. - - - o 0 o - - - Good to have you back.

Just hilarious, Jurgis! [ : - ) ] - - - o 0 o - - - On a more serious note: I really want rb to chime in here, on: 1. His thoughts about the discounting of the float liability, 2. His further comments about the piece by SlowAppreciation. - - - o 0 o - - - I hope that rb is just having a good time off the board in the summer period up there in Toronto.

Added to BRK.B - quite some, based on the discussion in the topic: "Berkshire - cheap?"

I hope your are right, longinvestor. I think within the last almost five years, there has only been one day beside this, where I have been allocating more capital than today. That day was the day after the Brexit vote, buying SAN. Today I added to BRK.B, because of the talk and discussion in this topic. No more fooling around with buying in drips. USD relative to EUR has been down quite some today, also [important for me as an European investor], likely because of all the talk about the political gridlock in the US with the health care reform.

SlowAppreciation, Semper Augustus February 2017 Client Letter, p. 35, top schedule. 4 methologies.

Great discussion - thank you all, - - - o 0 o - - - I think I read somewhere in the past, that Bershire lags analyst coverage... - not! It's actually one of the best covered companies in the world! - due to this board! That's meant as a compliment to my fellow board members! - - - o 0 o - - - Personally, I have a habit of thinking of the float and the deferred taxes in the Berkshire balance sheet as financial obligations basically free of interest [without discounting them], however the nature of those obligations separately are very different, and and the same time a bit similar. I have never moved myself into the for me mentally unknown territory to try to estimate their net present value. If I should try to do it with the float, I would most likely use the provision triangles that we have access to from the 10-Ks, and try to discount the payouts using a WACC. This approach is basically a calculation based on a liquidation perspective of the liability, based on hindsight [histocal experience] projected to the future, the provision triangles are naturally dynamic over time etc.etc. After all, what rb is pursuing, is a method for doing a rough estimate of the overall discount to apply to the Berkshire float, so I think - with all the flaws inherent in this method - that it's better to try that than just doing nothing, if you're pursuing to do the discount. Edit: The percentage table on lower part of p. 91 in the 2016 10-K will be where to start, and then decompose total float on GEICO, Gen Re, BHRG & BH Primary to do the math. Edit 2: Total float year end 2016 is stated to USD 91.6 B, ref. the February 25 2017 Press Release. At p. 87 at the top in the 2016 10-K there is a specification of the part of the float, totalling USD 76.918 B, ref. that separate post in the Berkshire balance sheet year end 2016.

You get $106/share in Investments/cash, and ~$9/share in earnings. So at $170/share, you're paying around 7x Op earnings per share for a very diverse group of businesses, earning stable, predictable earnings, which have been selected by the greatest capital allocator of all time. The group probably earns 15-20% on capital, and while growth may be limited, I don't expect it to lag the S&P. So as others have said, I think ~11-12% annual return from today's price is a reasonable expectation. This is why I hold Berkshire in my 401k rather than an S&P index fund. This. This piece by SlowAppreciation, combined with the two Semper Augustus Client Letters about intrinsic value of BRK was the documents that gave me conviction to continue to add to BRK going forward. Very much appreciated, SlowAppreciation, thank you for sharing. Damn good work. Please give your GF a gentle hug from me, it appears from your blog, that she is giving you a hand on your work.