John Hjorth

:-) In a few days there will be the 13F-HR to study and talk about on here. Digesting a few Howard Mark's memos and thinking about their contents also helps to get out of some kind of feeling of missery, or boredom while waiting - diversion of the mind, based on placebo... It works for me. I also use the Semper Augustus client letter that way - less placebo, more BRK. Beeing invested in BRK long term actually screews up your hierarchy of needs.

Thanks for the large contribution to my list, alwaysinvert!, - it's very much appreciated. Also thank you for your information and comments including your view on these kinds of investments at the moment. Actually, I'm having trouble valuing some of these companies and comparing them, because of different structures, generating different reporting structures caused by accounting conventions. [wholly owned investments vs. partly owned investments [listed/not listed]. I'm trying to make them comparable on some basic metrics and to decide on position size of each position of them in a basket, build the basket over some time, and then just basically sit on it long term, as a starting point [,meaning, always subject to that I may change my mind going forward, both with regard to basket size and individual position size].

Great question, wachtwoord, After thinking a bit about it: The reasons are several, and the common denominator for them are: Lack of mental flexibility, most likely geriatric based. My tent pegs are just hammered in the Danish soil, so they are stuck. Too lazy, too comfortable. Actually, I haven't moved my butt for more than 32 years now. They also speak so strange over there. It would in one way actually be like moving home. My grandfather on my fathers side was Swedish, and moved to the small Danish island Bornholm in the Baltic Sea from Skåne while young. On Bornholm, they also speak weird, language close to Swedish, more Swedish-like than Danish-like. I get reminded about it every time the old man gets angry, excited or eager. I would like to move south in retirement though - I hate Danish winters. The Lady of the House won't hear talk about all this. I call my self her AUM, when we have disagreements.

Scott, These investment companies are in Sweden taxed, so that the company is basically not taxed, but the shareholders only, and instead, are taxed, to avoid double taxation. The mechanics in the tax computation goes like this: Basis for taxation for the company is a standardized income, which calculation basis is the market value of investments at the beginning of the year minus the value of what by Swedish tax law is defined as "business-related shares". That calculation basis carries a standardized income of 1.5%. To that calculated standardized income the company has to add dividends received from investments, and the investment company can deduct management cost [basically the most of the costs related to running the investment company, net financial expenses etc. [the most of these companies uses leverage to a modest extent], AND dividends paid out to shareholders. The best way to get a feeling of the tax mechanism for such a Swedish company is to study the financials for Industrivärden AB. Just visit the website, switch to "English" by pressing that button on top of front page, grab the 2015 financials for the company, and study the tax note [note 8 on p. 45]. [industrivärden is in this respect "totally clean", because it has no wholly owned investments. The tax mechanism gets "burried" in the tax notes for the investment company, if there are wholly owned investments subject to joint taxation with the investment company, like in Investor AB and L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB.] Industrivärden has made good money in recent years, despite that fact it has a tax loss to carry forward of SEK 7.054 B at the end of 2015. So, in short, such a Swedish company can actually roll in and out of positions without incurring taxes on capital gains [and also not get deductions for losses on positions, if some investments goes south]. Such a Swedish company can actually hoard retained earnings much faster than a company not having this particular tax status, because it is not deferring taxes on unrealized capital gains on stock positions. There are some conditions, that have to be fullfilled for a Swedish company to obtain this tax status: 1. The portfolio has to be fairly diversified. 2. The company has to have "many" shareholders. 3. The companys actual and real activity has to be almost exclusively management of securities. - - - o 0 o - - - If there were such rules in place here in Denmark as part of the Danish tax regime, I would start out monday morning at 8:00 AM building such a damn thing, starting out with my own money, getting the tax status later by taking in OPM.

Within the last few years, this kind of investment has caught my attention. It has caught my attention for tax reasons. In short, it's to me the almost perfect investment, with regard to taxes in Danish tax deferred acounts. Naturally one has to build some kind of conviction about what these conglomerates are actually doing - right now, and going forward - expected. That's hard work and somehow cumbersome & dull. What I have been trying to build lately is a list, containing: The listed Swedish companies, with regard to taxation, subject to the Swedish tax rules of an "Investment företag" In English: "Investment undertaking"[link: here.] The listed entities so far identified by me, subject to those quite special Swedish tax rules, are: Investor AB [iNV A STO or INV B.STO] Link. L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB [Lund B.STO] Link. Industrivärden AB [ INDU A.STO or INDU C.STO] Link. Investment AB Öresund [ORES.STO] Link. Kinnevik AB [KINV A.STO or KINV B.STO] Link. Somewhere, on some Swedish website, a few months ago, I read, that there would be about a docen of companies with this particular status with regard to taxes mentioned above. Which companies are the rest, that I've been so far not able to identify? Any help on this question would be much apreciated - especially from my fellow Swedish board members on here. Thank you in advance for any input.

Thanks, VersaillesinNY! [around the 14:00:00 mark or so: comments about a young school boy going rogue, shorting AT&T stocks, because he's found out most of the teachers pensions funds were invested in AT&T stock!] - This is almost killing me! - lol

Pretty good humor, SharperDingaan! It could actually be a tweet by Mr. Taleb. I saw a bet there, in the category "Trump Specials": "Golden shower footage to appear on RedTube". Odds appeared to be 4/1. Hilarious.

Moderation and truce has to start to start with each of us, before we are asking it from somebody else. The board members here by large should be reasonable, non-violent people, so it should not be hard to have a civil discourse. If not, these threads should be locked. +1 - It's actually that plain simple, as posted by Spekulatius. I post here with my civil name - the name stated in my passport etc. - like Jurgis, Sanjeev and Eric. It's the best way for self moderation, and to stay out of trouble - for my part, at least. Jurgis, Sanjeev and Eric may have other motives, of which I have no knowledge. I respect other board members don't have this opportunity as living the lonely life of managing OPM. Unfortunately, I'm equipped with the worst temper even imaginable from birth - My father is an old school military man, distilled to the extreme -and his genes are in me. It took me many years just to acknowledge that fact, and try to shape my own behavior accordingly, in the meantime causing so many - actually - and uncautionally - selfinduced problems, untill I ended up realizing the facts of from what I'm built, relatively late in life. And life's got a lot easier from then going forward, in general. In short, if something makes you go ballistic on here, - take a break - do something else - positive - on your immediate mind - and get back, when you are cooled down again.

Ref. the question from racemize earlier in this topic, I have to step forward - in embarassment - because I asked my self the same question about 4 - 5 years ago - and ended up stuck on the question. Then, I found This, now even older, Gurufocus article: Lessons From Warren Buffett’s Personal Portfolio [2010.05.25]. The basis and assumptions of the article are false. What does a - former - then younger, and brain washed - Danish CPA do here? Answer: Get a fall back, and start trying to reconcile... it all! - position by position - to test, if the basis is true!... Which it is not. Old news then still apply today. Please just take the F13/HR related to year end 2015 and try to reconcile it to AR 2015 with regard to the number of shares of KO owned by BRK. Since then, I have been stuck, with regard to the understanding of that particular column in the F13/HR. I have tried searching the edgar site, but unfortunately without luck, and ended up giving up in the end, now long time ago.

It's pretty good humor, Williams406! I think I'll start babling to the Lady of the House that we really need some airline stocks now - earlier I have told her, if I ever start babling about buying airlines stocks, she has to stop me! - And to be very persistent with regard to suggestion for alternatives! - Oslo, Stockholm, Paris, Berlin, or perhaps even Hawaii, - here we come! [i call it an "inverted Garfield" - after the Cartoon Cat Garfield] - - o 0 o - - - James, thank you for sharing BAM's remarks on cash. I have read it before a few months ago, but forgot about it. It's certainly worth a print.

I'm with no_free_luch here. To me, [by that phrase I mean: It's not for discussion on this board, how I perceive this topic], it's just [yet another] political board spam topic. Let's all go back to discuss investing.

Added a bit to SCHO.CPH today.

Perhaps you should ask this question to couple CEOs who post on this thread. ;D Edit: Although we are all "grown ups" here, IMHO, political threads are toxic for communities like this. I've seen investment communities destroyed by political threads before. I have asked Sanjeev to consider not allowing political threads. His choice was to allow them ... and I respect it. But, yeah, political threads are mostly a sewer and your comments/questions are well given. Peace. Jurgis, Thanks, and peace, taken with a *high five*.

All participants in this topic, I suppose you aren't all invested in cash or cash equivalents, with no intention to change that [meaning: If so, why are you even a board member here?]. A fellow baord member posted a few days ago, that this board has turned from an investing board to a political board. It's certainly not for me to decide what to post on this board - the board as set up by Sanjeev many years ago contains a lot of freedom for board members with regard to posting. Sanjeev asked two very specific questions as the OP in this topic, which were clearly investment related, -however, to some extent, political. In some of the last posts in this topic I now read things about China many years ago ... - - - o 0 o - - - In short : Not trying to be condecending here, or even patronizing ... - but don't you - as investor - have anythings else to do? - Something that you have thought about with regard to an investment, that would be worth sharing with your fellow board members on here? As investor., there is always things to do... - the to do list is about endless, unless you suffer from investment burnout! Also, in short: You are all missed - to some extent - some more, some less - in the investment forum topics! I always appreciate investment input from fellow board members! - - - o 0 o - - - Thanks for reading my grumbling rant.

Charlie, Yes, to me also, BRK is still a buy - at these levels.

Oh, c'mon. Everybody knows that a cigar butt tastes better than McDonalds! LOLz! - +1 - The post of this month on CoBF - at least so far!

A couple of SA articles: Berkshire Hathaway Is Not Built To Last. Berkshire Hathaway: Potential For $95 Billion In Book Value Growth By Year-End 2017.

Thanks for sharing, SharperDingaan, I suppose all busts have some common traits, with minor invidual shades of differences among actual situations. For example, some Islandic bankers did not revert to their ordinary pre-crisis jobs, ref. this calculation of the size of Islandic football team . [i suppose the guy tweeting was far from impressed with the performance of the team ...].

Yesterday I tried to get some kind of understanding of the conditions then described by SharperDingaan, and I found this, from less than a year ago : National Observer : How are Alberta's "entitled" millennials dealing with the oil crash?. I was actually in some kind of state of shock after reading it. It made me remember to appreciate my personal living conditions up here in the Northern Europe.

New list: Insider Monkey: 11 Biggest Private Companies in the World. About two years old, but still better than nothing. Lot of overlaps to the Forbes list I posted earlier. New US companies not mentioned in the Forbes list: Pilot Flying J [#10 on this list]. German companies mentioned in this list: Bosch, ALDI & Lidl. - - - o 0 o - - - Thank you for adjusting my mistakes, Dynamic. It appears, I was just too lazy while posting. And good points from you in your post.

Thanks to all participants in this topic for sharing your '08 - 09' experiences in this topic. Crazy stuff to read. It's very educational. I'm just happy to read that your are all still around & kicking. Uccmal : Your post about the margin call actually made my neckline bristle. SharperDingaan : Your post in this topic is spot on. Investing = Work. StevieV : Thanks for reminding me. Personally I did not loose one dime on investing during the crisis. I lost money on everything else mentioned by you. Since the late '90's I was a 100% bond investor, investing in long term Danish morgage bonds in tax deferred accounts. Basically no work related to it, just reinvesting interest and addings every quarter. It worked quite well, based on the "no work" approach, generating an above Danish inflation return after tax - untill the long term interest rates on Danish morgage bonds tanked up to and during the crisis - so I got redeemed on just about everything, ending with a cash pile - of which I had - at that time - absolutely no clue what to do with. But I learned - the hard way - what to do with it... - absolutely not my basic intention of what I wanted to do with it! Next thing: The shit hit the fan with regard to work: I got fired, and the job market here in Denmark freezed to below zero. To keep my self afloat, I had to attack the tax deferred accounts, paying 60% tax [penalty rate about 20% for advance withdrawals]. Because of indebtness, causing negative cash flow over time. Many years ago, I had a GF [she was a blonde, DooDiligence!], and the relationship was just "Strindbersk". Her absolutely favorite comment to make me go ballistic/nuclear was : "You are soo dumb - just a highly educated idiot!". Maybe I will just give her a call tomorrow to chat. - - - o 0 o - - - The years after the crunch spent on making money, working, and getting rid of all debt, hoarding cash for investments, and hoarding credit lines - here , there and everywhere, so that it will never happen again.

jobyts, What are you going to to do, if the USD 100 K actually turns into ,- say 50 K [over 5 year time frame, as posted by you]?. Person Y would be deleted from my list of clients immediately, assessed as an idiot, taking on risk without no return. In short: 1. Make some money by investing - first 2. Think about taxation - after you have actually made some taxable money on investing.

Sanjeev, Here in Denmark, we have a saying : "Never forget the persons, who have actually helped you to make a change of your own life to the better". You are - to me - such a person, by providing this board, thereby connecting me to fellow board members - more or less with my own mindset with regard to investing - some board members totally outside my own leage. Your self sacrifacing personal nature is actually your biggest asset. At least to me, the connection to other fellow board members on this board, has made a material positive change - over the years. I wish you all the best and may your God be with you for 2017 going forward. Please don't ever forget your own personal wishes for life.

globalfinancepartners, Thanks for your post. As I have already posted, my post was based on a very rough/totally simple analysis, combined with no checks of facts anywhere, leaving room for at lot of mistakes/errors. It was just ment as a place to start. I will try to do some work on identifying relevant private German companies going forward, and I will post in this topic. - - - o 0 o - - - To me, speculation about the next BRK aquisition, is a much better exercise than just plain speculation. Let's continue "focused" BRK speculation in this topic.

Kinalberta, There is really no need to apologize for your post. : -) Personally, I consider your thoughts about this absolutely relevant. At least to me, they are. BRK is about 1/4 of porfolio on overall level, and I'm working with my own and family money. I have expressed impatience about the BRK cash pile before on this board, perhaps I should elaborate on that a bit here. It's not so much about the cash pile as such, but to me it is more about a material part of it is denominated in USD. In taxable accounts I could just exchange cash DKK for cash USD [not possible for me in tax deferred accounts], if I wanted to do that. I would never even consider to do such a thing. To me, cash is cash, and cash is in my own functional currency - absolute nothing else [otherwise it's not cash for me]. Personally I feel confident, that Mr. Buffett will remain extremely patient going forward. Mr. Buffett is damn good at it. I also feel quite confident, that the person Mr. Buffett has recommended to the BRK board as his successor possesses the same personal traits. So for me, it's like with starting merging toes with a lady of some age - you have to take the whole package - or not. I'm in - a lot - for the long run. The life expextancies of the Lady of the House and I is about 20 years. I have told her, that if something happens to me before her, and she needs to sell something, the last thing to leave the accounts at the broker is BRK. Your thoughts are a part of the whole situation about : 1. What's "the next elephant"? 1a. Will "the next elephant" be a listed company or private company? 2. Share buy backs or perhaps dividends going forward? [Personally, I certainly prefer share buy backs] 3. What about the share buy back treshold price going forward [will it stay at 1.2 x BV , or will it get a lift?]? - - - o 0 o - - - Ref. 1a above, I actually tried to do a search for large private US companies recently, and came up with this : Forbes : Largest private companies. I have made no efforts to try to find information about the financial performance [profits] of those companies, but I'm quite sure - by a rough estimate, that the profits of each company is not north the turnover. Comments: #1 Cargill: Tobacco is mentioned - No go for BRK #2 Koch Industries - Can you imagine the Koch brothers in M&A negotiations with Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger? To me, it's a no go. #3 Albertsons - Food markets - Retailer - No go. #4 Dell - Tell me about it. #5, #6 and for that matter also #11 PwC, Deloitte & E&Y - Private national partnerships/companies [by law in most of the world], figures are just proforma world wide consolidations, this is not a legal entity as such - can't be taken over - no go. #7 Mars - Tobacco mentioned - no go. #8 Publix Super Markets - Retailer - no go. #9 Bechtel - Could be interesting - wonderful company, actually making a difference to the world - I'm pretty sure the family have no intention to sell. # 10 C&S Wholesale Grocers - Retailer, and tobacco mentioned. No go. - - - o 0 o - - - #10 on the list has a turnover of USD 30 B, according to the list. - - - o 0 o - - - My conclusion: No private US company fits the bill in a way with regard to characteristics and size in way, that it could be a relevant aquisition subject for BRK, with the aim to move the needle. To me, Marmon in '08 was the last "thing". So if not US and private, then perhaps [European or Canadian] and private? - Or listed? To me - based on the above, the next large BRK aquisition will be a listed company, bought in the next downturn, ref. Mr. Buffetts and Mr. Mungers patience.