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Spekulatius

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Everything posted by Spekulatius

  1. If the Fed ever wants to prick a bubble without hurting the economy, targeting BTC and the other cryptos is one way to do it. As crypto becomes larger, it is almost inevitable in some way, the question is what and when.
  2. ^ Stocks are also the least affordable ever, but no one sees it that way.
  3. That's a nice list here. I have similar views on diversification, FWIW.
  4. Try this link, it should work: https://app.tikr.com/register?ref=o94y6y Koyfin is also worth a look (I use both): https://app.koyfin.com/home
  5. Pretty good ad from Fidelity:
  6. Or pretty much any finance professional publicly presenting ideas and acting on them.
  7. Yeah, that’s my question too. For me gold looks like a better bet, especially in a scenario where interest rates are artificially held back and inflation runs hot, like some have alluded to may happen. So, I keep buying small chunks of IAU in one account where I have the most cash (and IRA account). I sort of regard it as a cash alternative knowing too well that it can develop downside volatility in a choppy market. Guys, he's buying TLT for deflation/falling rates scenario, not for inflation/rising rates... ::) He actually explicitly said: I am aware of this, but gold could do well in a deflation as well, if there is concern about the financial system. It will however certainly do well better in a situation that I alluded to, where we have inflation and artificially suppressed interest rates.
  8. Yeah, that’s my question too. For me gold looks like a better bet, especially in a scenario where interest rates are artificially held back and inflation runs hot, like some have alluded to may happen. So, I keep buying small chunks of IAU in one account where I have the most cash (and IRA account). I sort of regard it as a cash alternative knowing too well that it can develop downside volatility in a choppy market.
  9. I mean, they're just investigating, no judgement is made yet. But I get your point, of all the shady crap that goes on, this is the one they decide to delve into... Remember the good old days, when the SEC were literally handed a full blown case into a hundred billion dollar ponzi scheme, and did absolutely nothing with it? If they did not investigate, there would be an outcry that they are not investigating... ::) It’s in the news everywhere, so politicians have to take a look. In my opinion, there is nothing to investigate, it’s all out there in his YouTube videos. Maxine Waters should watch a couple of them from 5-6 month ago when he got started and I bet she could learn something, if she cared.
  10. Actually AGM is similar (guarantees Agricultural loans backed by land). 4.2% dividend yield and 9x PE. I don't own it, but it looks like a decent value to me.
  11. Silver demand from solar cells is supposed to go down because the industry innovates around using less silver by using new process techniques as well replacing/stretching the silver with alloys. this has been going on for while and is likely to continue. Also, aren't the shorts in silver mostly the miners hedging their production?
  12. There was no intellectual framework in how to select stocks. It was full of discussions about how Lynch selected individual stocks, groups of stocks...alot of it based on "buy what you know". When I tried to invest using his methods, it was pure luck...half the time I made some money, half the time I lost money. It worked for him, but none of it could be duplicated! I finally woke up when I read Buffett's Letters, "The Intelligent Investor", and finally "Securities Analysis". That's when my batting average finally started to improve and the fundamental way I selected stocks was consistent, methodical and would work for the rest of my life. I got far much more value out of just reading 10-Q's and 10-K's in my first six months, than I did from Lynch's book. Kiyosaki's books were good in just changing my mindset in how to invest, why buy businesses, and to create passive income. But Ben Graham's books and Buffett's Letters changed my life forever! I will be eternally grateful to them! Cheers! I agree that Lynch’s books aren’t really good for investors getting started. At least by themselves, they are probably more dangerous than helpful. They are good in terms of how to get started doing research and find interesting stocks, but it doesn’t tell you about the next steps on how to look underneath the hood.
  13. Front running the Reddit/WSB crowd is the 2021 version of value investing.
  14. https://www.freseniusmedicalcare.com/en/news/preliminary-announcement-2021targets/
  15. Thanks for the explanation. obviously, my info was incorrect as far as stock clearing is concerned - yours makes a lot of sense.
  16. They settle trades themselves. Others use a clearinghouse which reduces capital requirements. The explosion in trading, higher stock prices for certain securities and account influx has made the capital raise necessary, at least that’s my take, based on limited info.
  17. This is what loosing a WSB looks like: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/melvin-capital-lost-more-than-50percent-after-betting-against-gamestop-wsj.html
  18. Koyfin is messed up after the recent update. The site is harder to use and charts are often messed up. I do like access to international stocks, but some of the other changes are questionable. I think Roaring Kitty is better of with what he has got.
  19. MA actually has done this and listed smoking as a comorbidity condition allowing to get the vaccine faster. https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-timeline-phase-overview#phase-2- I am guess that I am going to tell my doctor that I started smoking because I got too stressed out about COVID-19 and not getting the vaccine.
  20. Yes, I watched some videos too. it is definitely different than the gunslinger, I expected. He had a lot of energy names in his portfolio and HHS. He is an interesting fellow. I subscribed to his channel and he had 146k subscriber and it’s up to 178k now (Ops make this 181k). This guy could easily raise a billion $, I am guessing.
  21. L3Harris thesis in one sentence: 20% EBITDA business (Harris) + 13% EBITDA (L3) margin business = 20% EBITDA margin business (L3Harris) NOC had very strong revenue growth in the last quarter. LMT also looked good, but outlook disappointed a bit. All those will be buying back a lot of stock if they stay cheap.
  22. For most companies that is true. It is not true for companies that need to access the capital market frequently, like most financials or even MLP that have financing needs to that access capital markets for debt and equity. Financials in particular need to roll over debt, over gibt credit etc literally every day and and their reputation is extremely important in the view of their stakeholders (counterparts, customers, depositions, creditor). A severely lower share price and undermine confidence na impact the business very quickly. That’s the reflexivity principle. For other companies (industrials, even tech) that is much less the case.
  23. No $41t Sherlock. Would have never guessed stock prices would drop when people are not allowed to buy them. ::) These newly minted millionaires need to move to a real broker. IB lets you buy anything. Got an limit order for NOK below $4 in just in case things get really funny on the downside.
  24. There is a bear market in Meme stocks today : GME, BB, AMC, NOK, PLTR are all down today.
  25. Looks one like folks in my office were gambling too. I hear words like Gamestock, AMC, Blackberry around our break room area this AM. Even some boomers were apparently in.
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