Spekulatius

I am in my mid fifties and doing similar works to yours, but in a different area. I think I easily can do this into the mid sixties, if I have to or feel like it. I agree with @boilermaker75 suggestion to keep fit. When you get into the fifties, health issue usually start to occur in many ways and it is important to keep your body healthy. As for investing, I don't really think anything changes, but you just need to be more aware of risk. You can't really afford wipeouts at this point any more.

Fixed interest rate Bonds are insurance against deflation. Thats how I would see it. TIPS are insurance against inflation.

Maybe it just my bias, but this CCP Congress feels pretty dour. This does not help either: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3196157/chinese-military-must-move-faster-become-world-class-fighting Her is what Xi Xinping said about the military: The use of military power needs to be normalised and used in diverse ways,” he said in the report published on Sunday. “We need to be able to stage military operations readily, create a secure environment, deter and control risks and conflicts, and win regional wars.” “Win regional” wars is probably a snipe at Russian attacking Ukraine and losing. “ Normalized” and “Diverse ways” in the context of military power does not sound all that promising either. I think it’s pretty clear at this point that if you play in the Chinese sandbox as a western country investor, you are at the risk of losing your marbles. With the semiconductor sanctions, the Chinese semiconductor companies probably all will become state sponsored enterprises, if they haven’t been already. Quite likely, that applies to suppliers and ancillary sectors as well.

I think the semiconductor sanctions were the right move, done fairly late in the game. They would have been better done 5 years ago. As for college without taking SAT score - yes you can do that, but you won’t get into a good one. My son is at that stage as senior and without taking SAT or ACT test and scoring relatively high, the chances that get into a decent college are small.

The IP theft has definitely going on in semis. They can develop this tech too, but it takes time and they may never be able to catch up if the west keeps innovating. Right now, they are at least 10 years behind. I don't know how long it takes for China to get to the current leading edge, but it is possible that if they get totally cut off from western leading edge tech, that they can never catch up because the western companies keep the innovation edge the same. Also keep in mind that it is much harder to copy tech that you can't buy any more. Something like leading edge equipment won't get into Chinese hands any more. Even blueprints and electronic records (if they can steal them) only go so far. I don't think China is totally screwed, but they totally need to reboot their semiconductor development effort and probably start from basics in many respects.

Bonds can be attractive if you buy junk bonds when there is credit distress. You can get equity like returns in those situations. I actually can see the attractiveness to buy some TIPS at ~8% yield too. 8% is close to the LT track record of the stock market and with much less risk, especially if you have a shorter timeframe.

I am not sure about that. The Tory's in grey suits are just a boys club running the country in the ground, it seems to me. They are more of a problem than the solution. Look at where they come from - half these folks know each other from Cambridge and Eton Colleges. The UK has very little manufacturing and not much high tech. A lower GBP does not help them, but hurts their outsized financial sector. FWIW, I think the UK market looks cheap, because of the composition of the index. Lot's of energy, financials, mining. the same stocks are cheap in US markets as well. https://siblisresearch.com/data/ftse-100-sector-weights/

A lot of mediocre companies were going around 100x earnings in 1990, I guess this was based on their presumed real estate values as well as the inflated value of their cross share holdings. Ironically most now are in way better shape than they were in 1990 operationally and from a balance sheet POV, but trade at a fraction of their former valuations.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/12/elon-musk-russia-ukraine-00061528

Not just food, but also crude oil, LNG, coal, raw materials etc. Think about how easy it would be to blockade all these things outside the Chinese sea for the US navy with help from the Japanese. The Chinese have no navy ships whatsoever to protect their trade lines outside the Chinese sea. They would be on the ropes in 4 weeks.

That’s because people become macro traders in times like this when stocks movement become correlated and typically very lousy ones. As if people had a clue what the next inflation print is going to look like much less how the market reacts to it.

Compilation of classic shorts from Ingmar Bergman movies: Some bear watching again. Absolute classics.

LOL, Joe's ice cream social has the answers:

Yes, i think there is a significant probability that the financial markets between of China HK will be cut of from the western financial system. That means that you may not be able to have access to your HK or chinese shares any more. The consequences of such an invasion would be much more severe than with the Ukraine war, due to the relative size of the Chinese economy vs the Russian economy.

Dependency on one major customer is a big risk, especially in Japan. Also, Toshiba as a company is terrible sclerotic and is has been losing market share for ages in semiconductors. I think at one point, they were one of the largest semiconductor business in the world. now, they are just a shadow of their former self.

This seems it: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Full-text-of-Xi-Jinping-s-speech-on-the-CCP-s-100th-anniversary

CRM and TSM come to my mind as profitable and growing 15% over time. TSM will not make 15% growth next year, but I think they can do it on average over the next 5 years.

I think the Wagner group model themselves after the Totenkopf (skull) SS. SS was basically Hitler Guard. Some of them were elite army divisions (including tanks) others were guarding the Konzentrationcamps like Dachau. Similar to SS being Hitler’s guard, the Wagner units are separate from the regular army and run as a mercenary group directed by Putin.

Imagine going to a Costco in China Wednesday and a Thursday at the same Costco someone tests positive. Now everyone who works or visited the Costco (as a customer) within 2 days before an after the positive case needs to quarantine. That’s a story I was told from an manager whose company does business (with employees) in China this weekend over a beer. This is zero COVID-19 policy in China in practice.

From the SCMP: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3196167/incomparable-glory-awaits-china-world-stage-xi-jinping-tells?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3196167 ”incomparable glory” uhh Ooh….

Hopefully not COVID-29. Also, he was indicating the strong possibility of not so peaceful unification. I found the undertone of his speech very unsettling. By the way, I think it was not an coincidence that the semiconductor restrictions were put in place just before the party Congress. I don’t expect a direct answer form China, but there will be an answer. FWIW, the West is in the process of disconnecting security sensitive industries and supply chain from China. If a major international company does not have a plan in place to manage their supply chain without China within a couple of years, they are taking a major existential risk. Really, it does not come much clearer than that. I am curious what companies like Apple are going to do, Producing 2M iPhones in India is not going to do it. As for what he says and what he does I think Autocrats tend to do what they say. That’s basically the reason they exist and how they rule.

Is wasn't in the US at that time, but people were not extremely bearish in 1981 and 1982 either. It was just a grinding bear market and a lot of disinterest. Lots of interest in Gold, silver, oil Yieldcos etc and real estate. Neither of these did great in the 80’s.

It’s not about results, it’s about ideology. His speech at the Congress today sounds like much more of the same, zero COVID-29, peacefully reunification more common prosperity etc, more neo Maoism. https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/15/china/china-party-congress-opening-day-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-hails-communist-partys-self-revolution-in-bid-to-extend-rule-11665894731?mod=hp_lead_pos7 Sounds bearish for Chinese stocks, if you ask me.

Biden going against Saudi Arabia is a mistake. It accomplishes nothing. As for the OPEC cut, it is likely that then 2M p/brl cut is not actually going to happen in practice. The reason is simple, the OPEC is quota and many members don’t even meet theirs. While it is clearly a political signal and aspect is trying to keep prices high, it’s not like Biden can really do anything and going against Saudi Arabia is doing nothing. The biggest mistake is not selling them weapon systems going forward. That is first an entirely different topic and I don’t really see how it punishes Saudi Arabia. It’s not even clear that the Brits or the French will adhere to this move. Likewise, I don’t think a price cap on Russian oil is going to work either after thinking about it for a while. It only works, if the world market price for oil is below the price cap, and then the price cap is redundant. The whole idea I think is nonsense.

This is gold: Transcript: So when I tell them that in order to understand Putin they shouldn't really talk to experts from the foreign office. They should go to a crime ridden area to the local police station where any Police Inspector would tell them what a normal gangster is like and how you deal with them