willie2013

Buying Ascend Wellness (AAWH)

Could just be the ban on naked short selling in Canada. 280E isn’t going away but perhaps the chances of SAFE banking are improving.

AAWH

Picking Ascend, Verano, GoodnessGrowth, Columbia Care, C21 and smaller amounts with others.

Attached image courtesy of @cashflow_free on Twitter . Appreciate his work and please read the footnotes. All of these stocks have a high beta to MSOS. If MSOS revisits previous highs with legalization and removal of 280E , the lower tier names will 3-5 X or more. If MSOS goes to $15 capital constrained lower tier names will go much lower or even bust. Also, I think there is some room in this discussion to include a look at historic Canadien cannabis stock price charts during legalization. I relate investing in this sector to other binary type stock decisions I have made in the past.

I like Tier 2 and Tier 3 US cannabis stocks and CXXIF. My total portfolio that includes a roughly fifty percent holding in Berkshire was down 3% in 2021 after a huge gain in 2020. Basically spent the last year investing in this segment, cannabis, while suffering from confirmation and anchoring bias! All my BRK/B gains went up in smoke! Hope to do better next year by spending more time on this board. Happy New Year everyone! -willie

CCHWF

Thanks backtothebeach. Wish we would of risked that yesterday afternoon!

Agree 100% that shorting Tilray to buy Aphria is stupid. Was wondering if the duration of the deal close and likelihood could somehow figure into different time and strike calls/puts in Tilray/Alphria somehow. to make a value / risky bet? It would be the kind of thing that might involve harvesting /selling the high volatility in the options to take advantage of the WSB/RH. Perhaps just having a trade ready when news breaks would be the play. GME was obvious at $450 but I didn’t have a trade ready when the news changed. This is interesting because Aphria is being dragged along with the squeezed Tilray but Aphria is the much better company in my opinion. It does seem binary to me though. If merger happens Tilray goes down more than Aphria goes down. And if merger doesn’t happen they both go toward prices somewhat above the pre- merger prices. Thanks for the comment.

J and J is in the mushroom ETF at five percent . I think cannabis is more investable of course but perhaps look to a country like Israel and their drug developing expertise. It seems the drugs from the pot plant work on more physical type ailments while drugs from mushrooms are trickier and work on the psyche (depression etc. ) which is a harder clinical research based “sell”. Appreciate the response though greatly.

Crickets... just like my OSTK post when it was $50. I know we are value investors and don’t like being outside a circle of competence and that compounding is a way to wealth and tax avoidance...etc but geez let’s make some money here by sharing ideas and discussing opportunities. -Willie

The WSB/Robinhood crowd has apparently moved on from GME and AMC and is squeezing Tilray. Current after hours quotes are $72 for Tilray and $28 for Aphria. This link speaks to the arbitrage. I believe the deal will close. Is there a way to speculate on this with options without shorting Tilray (which is hard to do and has high borrow). https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/2021/02/10/aphria-is-becoming-the-stock-markets-biggest-merge/ -Willie

Bought APHA/Sold TLRY short

Sold some of the pot positions bought before the elections (not a political post or meant to offend ).

BMWLF , CCHWF, HRVSF , GRAMF Buying Bluma Wellness (BMWLF) looked like a discounted way to own Cresco Labs. Bought during the downdraft early in the trading day. Hoping Cresco’s acquisition of Bluma will close. Columbia Care (CCHWF) is positioned in the right states and shares have underperformed to peer group MSOs recently. Harvest (HRVSF) has 23 of 38 dispensaries in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Also bought some GRAMF hoping that the California cannabis assets, Caliva and Left Coast, that were bought by this SPAC before the two elections (Presidential and Georgia) will rerate. The Parent Company (GRAMF) is also well capitalized ($300 Million cash) to pursue its goal of creating a national cannabis brand ( JAY-Z is a major shareholder and their brand ambassador). Very unsure about management and think execution risk is high. It will be hard and very expensive for them to enter their next intended market, New York.