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cubsfan

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Everything posted by cubsfan

  1. And I believe - it was mentioned during that discussion - that for the right situation, use of debt might be used.. so for that reason, I thought the acquisition figure could be in the area of $150B.
  2. Shocker! -- will be interesting to see if they hire another investment manager
  3. The main point you might have missed is the clueless/partisan Mainstream Media - so out of touch with America. Anyone that trusts them, like we used to in the old days, is fooling themselves. My "speculation" is that Trump will be impeached, but the real damage will be to the Media once again, when he is re-elected. The damage to the media is permanent and long-lasting - as it will be to the Democratic Party until they fix themselves. Including the credibility of those suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, like some on this thread.
  4. The NYT poll had Trump at 15% chance of winning the night before the election. Most polls were in that 10-20% odds for Trump. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html CNN Poll - Trump chances = 9% https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/political-prediction-market-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/ Such is the out of touch media --- totally clueless on Trump's election chances........totally clueless on Russian/Trump collusion. Hell, for 3 YEARS - the Media has been totally clueless and totally partisan. Why in the world would you assign them ANY credibility now?? And now we are supposed to believe the media about the Ukrainian Hoax?? Try 0 for 3 - and the Media is done...
  5. Yup - thank you for posting that article Jurgis - it's a good one. After 30 years in software sales (15 as a rep, 15 as a manager) - you see this rat race and lack of empathy. The arrogance and elitism that results is frightening. And then I see the same types in my neighborhood berate the Mexican landscapers and Polish housecleaners for a better price and are so proud of themselves when the beat them down - and brag about it. And I ask myself - "are they cheap? or do they just love to win?" - I think this article answers that question. Thanks for passing it on.
  6. Pupil - wow, what a great explanation. Thank you!
  7. This would describe Chicagoland metro area on the residential side - below 500K, moving. As you move closer to $1M - disaster.
  8. Good article about American higher education -and how the system morphed to much higher costs over time: https://amgreatness.com/2019/09/01/from-icon-to-just-a-con/ The "Prescription" is quite interesting, although the chances of reform the author puts at zero. Reason? too many imbedded interests
  9. Those goat jokes were hilarious
  10. Thanks much John - doesn't bother me in the least. Lots of Tilson haters out there - even though Whitney's been spot on with Berkshire over the years. His analysis on BRK has been very good in the past - so I could care less if investors want to ignore it or make fun of it. My money agrees with his current view.
  11. Update by Tilson on his intrinsic value calculation for Berkshire: https://assets.empirefinancialresearch.com/uploads/2019/08/Berkshire-Hathaway-analysis-Whitney-Tilson-8-21-19.pdf Today IV = $261/B share 12 months out = $284/B share At least with Berkshire, Whitney is generally spot on with the IV trend line, if not a little early.
  12. I'm not sure what the Teacher pension situation is in other states, but in Illinois - it a great deal. I hear these teachers bitch about how hard they work etc, --- but check out some of these pensions - here a slice from Naperville, ILL schools, fairly close to me: https://www.openthebooks.com/map/?Map=1803&MapType=Pin&Zip=60527 (when the map opens, just click on Naperville) Not bad if you've been teaching driver's ed or an art class your whole life!
  13. That is such a good way to frame it. I'm also encouraged knowing that Greenberg is a highly concentrated LT investor with few positions that knows his holdings well. Usually around 10 stocks. He stays out of the spotlight, buying companies that he feels deliver high returns on capital. Perhaps along the lines of Lou Simpson.
  14. Nice article on the tradeoffs on the public picking up the tab for higher education in developed countries: https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/08/what-european-countries-sacrifice-for-free-college/
  15. Glenn Greenberg too - 14% position
  16. I'd say First Pacific Advisors - Bob Rodriquez and Steve Romick
  17. +1 - "a clusterfk is born" - the consummate description
  18. thanks for posting - really enjoyed this
  19. This would do wonders to help people grow up. Personal sacrifice has taken the back seat to "me too" - to the detriment of the country.
  20. Nice job of providing some great insights (with slides), into the BHE operations. I too, was at the last few meetings, where WEB insists large capital can still be deployed in this business at great advantage to BH. But you guys in this thread have provided the proof and comps. Thanks much.
  21. A Netflix series I really liked: "Fauda" Start with season 1. Fauda in Hebrew or Arabic means "chaos". About the IDF and the battles with Palestinian terrorists (Hamas). Done in English, Hebrew and Arabic - with subtitles. It has you on the edge of your seat most of the time. The series is a winner of plenty of international awards.
  22. Couldn't agree more - management has been more than fair in their warnings - and I would not exactly call them "evasive", but they certainly do not need to be explicit every reporting period....good for them, and good for long term shareholders.
  23. I think this is insightful and as Howard Marks might say - second level thinking. Buffett and successors have a tough job but they remain disciplined on what they are willing to pay. At the shareholder meeting, everyone trying to pin them down on a buyback number, etc. This reminds me of those several years prior to 2008, when so many shareholders screamed at each meeting about him carrying so much cash. Late in the cycle he said something to the effect of "you won't like the conditions that exist if we can put all this money to work". Worth remembering that.
  24. Say what you want guys - but there is a revolution going on in this country. Hopefully, it will continue to be with words and not actual violence. And the dialog gets tense and ugly, because Americans are tired of being lied to - and told "shut up and obey". The political leadership in this country is not the political leadership of 30-40 years ago - when they really cared about the citizens. That has many people up in arms. Our current leaders care solely about their own power. Before a couple years ago, I never cared at all about politics - but I do now - after watching our so-called leaders accomplish basically nothing to improve this country. That's why Donald Trump was elected - like it or not - Americans gave the finger to both parties - Trump just happened to be a Republican. American's want government to actually do something for once and improve their lives - move forward. Whether you're right or left - just get something done for me for once. And if government doesn't change - we may eventually get something far worse than Donald Trump.
  25. Well - that's a very good rule - one I should have adopted. Metro seemed like a simple bank model, just basic banking, seemingly nothing messy. Your point about them not understanding the UK rules is a good one. As to the integrity issue, this leadership team has little credibility left after the way they handled investor communication. I'll let others try and separate the surprises from the lies.
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