cubsfan

Update by Tilson on his intrinsic value calculation for Berkshire: https://assets.empirefinancialresearch.com/uploads/2019/08/Berkshire-Hathaway-analysis-Whitney-Tilson-8-21-19.pdf Today IV = $261/B share 12 months out = $284/B share At least with Berkshire, Whitney is generally spot on with the IV trend line, if not a little early.

I'm not sure what the Teacher pension situation is in other states, but in Illinois - it a great deal. I hear these teachers bitch about how hard they work etc, --- but check out some of these pensions - here a slice from Naperville, ILL schools, fairly close to me: https://www.openthebooks.com/map/?Map=1803&MapType=Pin&Zip=60527 (when the map opens, just click on Naperville) Not bad if you've been teaching driver's ed or an art class your whole life!

That is such a good way to frame it. I'm also encouraged knowing that Greenberg is a highly concentrated LT investor with few positions that knows his holdings well. Usually around 10 stocks. He stays out of the spotlight, buying companies that he feels deliver high returns on capital. Perhaps along the lines of Lou Simpson.

Nice article on the tradeoffs on the public picking up the tab for higher education in developed countries: https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/08/what-european-countries-sacrifice-for-free-college/

Glenn Greenberg too - 14% position

I'd say First Pacific Advisors - Bob Rodriquez and Steve Romick

+1 - "a clusterfk is born" - the consummate description

thanks for posting - really enjoyed this

This would do wonders to help people grow up. Personal sacrifice has taken the back seat to "me too" - to the detriment of the country.

Nice job of providing some great insights (with slides), into the BHE operations. I too, was at the last few meetings, where WEB insists large capital can still be deployed in this business at great advantage to BH. But you guys in this thread have provided the proof and comps. Thanks much.

A Netflix series I really liked: "Fauda" Start with season 1. Fauda in Hebrew or Arabic means "chaos". About the IDF and the battles with Palestinian terrorists (Hamas). Done in English, Hebrew and Arabic - with subtitles. It has you on the edge of your seat most of the time. The series is a winner of plenty of international awards.

Couldn't agree more - management has been more than fair in their warnings - and I would not exactly call them "evasive", but they certainly do not need to be explicit every reporting period....good for them, and good for long term shareholders.

I think this is insightful and as Howard Marks might say - second level thinking. Buffett and successors have a tough job but they remain disciplined on what they are willing to pay. At the shareholder meeting, everyone trying to pin them down on a buyback number, etc. This reminds me of those several years prior to 2008, when so many shareholders screamed at each meeting about him carrying so much cash. Late in the cycle he said something to the effect of "you won't like the conditions that exist if we can put all this money to work". Worth remembering that.

Say what you want guys - but there is a revolution going on in this country. Hopefully, it will continue to be with words and not actual violence. And the dialog gets tense and ugly, because Americans are tired of being lied to - and told "shut up and obey". The political leadership in this country is not the political leadership of 30-40 years ago - when they really cared about the citizens. That has many people up in arms. Our current leaders care solely about their own power. Before a couple years ago, I never cared at all about politics - but I do now - after watching our so-called leaders accomplish basically nothing to improve this country. That's why Donald Trump was elected - like it or not - Americans gave the finger to both parties - Trump just happened to be a Republican. American's want government to actually do something for once and improve their lives - move forward. Whether you're right or left - just get something done for me for once. And if government doesn't change - we may eventually get something far worse than Donald Trump.

Well - that's a very good rule - one I should have adopted. Metro seemed like a simple bank model, just basic banking, seemingly nothing messy. Your point about them not understanding the UK rules is a good one. As to the integrity issue, this leadership team has little credibility left after the way they handled investor communication. I'll let others try and separate the surprises from the lies.

I have no facts, I have my strong beliefs, which I'm sure you do as well and are entitled to. Don't hold your breath is right.

Thank you Read, that is very kind of you. Investing analysis and developing keen business insights is difficult enough - when you couple it with dishonest management - it becomes really treacherous. Having spent years in the software business with extremely promotional management who felt there job was to pump the stock - and be damn the investors - I should have know better. Sometimes, you can ask all the right questions - and it just won't matter, depending on the character of management with which you are dealing. Seems every few years - I need to be truly humbled by the investing process - and I am. But you are correct - learn and don't repeat, as you refine your process. Excellent advice Read.

Hi. I've been looking a bit into that. Seems very interesting. Have you seen a decent writeup anywhere or mind to share a couple of points? What's obvious is the deposit growth, which is incredible. The culture is based on the Commerce Bank model, that Vernon Hill "invented" in America. The culture is real - I can tell you that. Both customers and employees love this company. You have 56 "stores" going to 100-130, roughly in 5-6 years. The "store model" is totally repeatable - and UK will eventually support, perhaps, 200 stores. There are structural reasons for the growth - by that I mean - the UK banking sector is being forced to shrink (I mean the legacy banks) as the UK regulators and the public's interests have not been served. (RBS is still 65% owned by gov). So some assets are being dispersed, the market is opening up, and legacy branches have closed at a fast rate due to cost cutting and poor locations. So there are significant industry tailwinds for the growth of "challenger" banks. Metro is the best of them all. It's the fastest growing bank I have ever seen in my life. Looks like Metro Bank is blowing up. Risk weighting for mortgages off - they had RWA for commercial mortgages at 50% rather than 100%. Did they forgot to read the manual for bank accounting in the UK? Looks doomed to me, or at least has to raise capital. On then surface, it still looks adequately capitalized, but I stay away from financials that can’t get their accounting right - a lot of them become doughnuts. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/british-lender-metro-banks-2018-072746266.html Dumpster fire continues - cash call: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/metro-bank-slumps-shareholder-cash-081129938.html My worst investment of last year. What a lesson for me. Buffett says you want management that is smart, energetic and honest. And the most dangerous management is smart, energetic and lacks integrity. Unfortunately, that is Metro Bank management. I bought it hook, line and sinker. I hope none of you followed me in to Metro. You can not believe anything they tell you.

Misterkrusty - I'm sure the truth hurts you - and you'll find out soon enough. Like you can't see that Comey, Rosenstein, Brennan, Clapper are criminals - give me a break..

Well, trying to get rid of an Oracle database is like trying to get rid of all your Excel/Word suites - not so easy. The conversion costs are going to be massive and take years. Oracle will still make plenty of money on license upgrades, etc. Most corporations have better things to do then spending time & money converting applications that work. I'll be real interested to see how Amazon pulls the off.

Well - I'm not sure I totally understand the DB area anymore either with SAAS in the picture. It may be that with Amazon's move away from Oracle DB, which is relatively recent, that creates some fear of Oracle's moat eroding. Never thought I'd see it happen with Oracle, but who knows.

I love this guy: --When pressed for further details on the mystery deal, Buffett says, "I'll give you a hint. It's on this planet."

I'm in favor of selling California to Mexico. I love this idea - but they need to keep the fruitcakes too!

Ha! Hey, don't confuse facts with a good anti-Trump narrative! Don't you know the purpose of fake news?

There can be no serious talk about cutting spending and doing something about the debt unless military spending cuts are #1 on the list. Military spending is out of control and needs to be slashed massively. Certainly will be easier to do if Trump gets NATO members to kick in their committed shares.