muscleman

Thank you so much wabuffo! I previously totally could not understand what you were saying but now it starts to make sense. Would you please also explain about your TGA and its rate impact analysis in the above way if that is possible? I really appreciate your help!

Hi wabuffo Do you think this new repo would impact your prediction about the interest rate rise in August? It is really hard to understand what this is. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-launches-standing-repo-facility-to-boost-market-liquidity-11627496260

Officials will assess whether to begin shrinking their $120 billion in monthly asset purchases in coming meetings. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-says-economy-has-made-progress-toward-its-goals-teeing-up-bond-taper-11627495233?mod=hp_lead_pos1 That's what we got today. Really? Why can't they assess it now?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-aid-planned-for-mortgage-borrowers-at-risk-of-foreclosure-11627032601 Just as we are still discussing the new 3.5 Trillion bill last week, they now have one more stimulus bill today. It seems like this administration believes that all problems could be solved by throwing out money.

The bond market is due for a collapse starting in early August. I don't think it is wise to have any bond allocation at the moment. See wabafo's insights here

Sure! I actually think the overall market is building a top and about to roll over, which will put a lot of pressure on FNMAS and drag it down as well.

I would challenge you to find out the 10 single largest up days since 2007. Hint: They are mostly in 2008. Usually bear markets are much harder to play with because in hindsights, it is very tempting to think "Had i bought yesterday, I would have been up 15% today". Bull markets on the other hand, usually have small up and down days but go for a long time.

Why is the takings case taking so long? There hasn't been any progress at all in the last 2 years right? Is the judge sleeping?

Good luck! I've been trading this around over the years and I don't think the bottom is in yet. This is a highly illiquid stock with big funds buying day after day when some good news start to show up, or selling day after day when some bad news start to show up. I think there is still a long way to go before they finish dumping all their positions. I think the best time to get in is when we start to have some hints of good news showing up and we know these big boys will start buying day after day for multiple weeks.

Never believe in what the guys say. They make money from insider trading. Remember the Rothchild's family's most famous UK bond trade? If you get excited simply because everyone else is scared, you can still lose a lot of money. Look at the oil stocks from 2014-2020.

Oh i see. Yeah that's absolutely clear that going in right now is a contrarian bet. Over the years, I found that neither contrarians nor herd followers make consistent money. It is important to understand when to be a herd follower and when to be a contrarian. I see too much risk being a contrarian right now.

"couldn't be clearer now."??? I don't see that point. If we get a SCOTUS positive ruling then you could say that. But how could you say that with such a negative ruling.

This is likely dead money for at least a year right? One really important thing to remember: Anything Glen Bradford touches, he turns gold into lead. Same for those Chinese reverse mergers in 2011. Same for FNMAS. Back in 2011, when those Chinese reverse mergers got delisted, investors were making cases for why it would be a buying opportunity because these were legit companies and they would move to HK to relist. They later drafted lower and lower to worthless. I think the same is likely to happen here, until we get close to another legal catalyst. I would warn anyone trying to bottom fish this sucker now.

Last October I saw a youtuber's analysis that if Biden wins, everything will resemble China from 2008-2020. So far he is absolutely on track. One Trillion dollar bill per quarter.

Didn't we just have two trillion dollar bills already this year? Now the 3rd one coming. When Bill Clinton requested a 20 Bn stimulus 20 years ago, he probably would have never thunk of the day when politicians easily talk about trillions and trillions.

There seems to be a pattern of politicians getting really rich (100 Million+) over their 30-40 years of career. They would tell you it is all legal business income from their family members. Well......

I have been making a case for a repeat of the dot-com bubble top this year since last October but recently I think that the top has been postponed till next year. I am fully invested right now and expect to ride on a historical asset bubble. But when it is about to burst, I am gonna run quickly.

Yeah. Just like how I dealt with my tremendous losses in 2011 with the US listed Chinese reverse merger frauds. I took the losses and moved on. Glen Bradford was the cheerleader for those craps back then. Can't believe our fate crossed over again this time. Overall, using a trading approach for FNMAS worked well. The last loss was properly positioned as a binary outcome for a very small position sized, which unfortunately did not work out. But people who buy every dip of FNMAS like what they do with the long term compounders like AMZN have to take a big hit and big lesson.

Over the years, I've learned that being a trend follower is much easier than being a contrarian. Right now I could see that since the NWS started in 2012, the trend is to kill it. Trump gave us high hope to reverse that course but somehow neither him nor Calabria did anything. That just tells us how strong the trend is to kill FnF. Now with the SCOTUS loss, do you really think the trend is shifting? I don't see any reason for that.

Thank you wabuffo. Could you please share some more analysis on why deflation in 2000 later caused the housing bust in 2008? I thought the loose lending standard was the cause. What's your analysis on housing right now?

You could argue about this at 6% par but it will be dead money for a long time for sure. And who knows what price it will be 1 year from now. Maybe 3% of par. At least my criteria is to find stocks that are flat for a long time and start to go up, and this one doesn't fit that.

Well.... I think the most important lesson is to pick the right fight. Yes I am equally disgusted with these access journalists. But sometimes you have to recognize the shift in tide. Since Obama came in power in 2009, there has been this massive shift from investigative journalists to access journalists, and the whole country is becoming more and more like China, with no law, no freedom of speech, and the government is becoming more totalitarian, and being politically correct is more important than having common sense and having the rule of law. I don't see any sign that this trend is going to shift back right now, and I am disgusted by that. From that point of view, we should be grateful of these access journalists because they are telling us what WILL happen next.

Buying a falling knife is the last thing you want to do. You don't know how many funds are being liquidated because of this. FAIRX could be facing big redemption pressure for example. I think the long term buy and hold investing mentality for a traditional high moat growth stock simply does not apply to FNMAS. You can't just buy every dip and expect great results from it.

That resembles the opposite of Rothchild's UK bond trade. When the war news came, he was the first one to know it, and he sold as much as possible. Others did not know what was going on but they saw Rothchild selling like the end of the world so they joined, selling at pennies, and Rothchild bought aggressively from them. There are algos that are designed to trick the other algos to think the other algo knows something that it didn't, and follow the action there. I suspect the initial pop was done by one algo trying to trick the other algo.

Back in 2011, I was following Glen Bradford into a few US listed Chinese reverse mergers and they turned out to be frauds one by one. Glen became quiet for a few years and then became a GSE preferred's cheerleader. Now he has a perfect record that 100% of what he touches turns into crap.