muscleman

They are in the 50s.

One of my relatives just passed away from Corona Virus. Prior to this, he is very healthy with no known issues. His heart rate suddenly dropped to 20, and then passed away.

Oh this same guy who said "cash is trash" right at the market top last month. I'd like to hear more about his infinite wisdom.

There have been many previous cases in China (not referring to Li Lu's, but in general) where donations have gone missing or directly into the Party comrades' pockets. I am sure the Chinese govt with all its might and power can come up with the required resources on its own. I am not donating one cent. Why would I? When the doctors are fighting so hard with self made protective gears from plastic trash bags, the Wuhan Red Cross intercepted all donations and diverted all of the N95 masks (36000 total) to an abortion clinic! At the same time, the Chinese government donated 30 Million masks to Hong Kong. >:( The shortage of masks and other things is a complete man made disaster.

If what you said is true, that makes this virus far less deadly than we think today? On the investment side, these type of event usually marks the end of a long bear market. Just think about how the end of SARS marked the end of a long bear market in Asia. Is it possible they're hiding deaths as well as infections? I think that's true. If you look at SARS death rate, it is only 11% in China vs 20% in Hong Kong. Either the Chinese medical system is way better than Hong Kong or you know...... Let me give you some details as I have classmates actually working in the CDC in Wuhan. Earlier this month, they only give out 200 PCR test kits per day and only acknowledge infections tested positive by the kit. There were tons of people who could not get tested. It is recently increased to 2000 kits per day, which is why you see the steady increase in infection numbers recently. When there are not enough kits to be used on people still alive, how would you expect them to test on people who died? No way to waste a kit for that. Those people who died will never show up in the number. The test kit's sensitivity is also adjusted to a low level. I heard a case today that a patient was considered cured as his test kit shows negativity after two tests in 3 days, and was discharged to his home, and then infected his family. His family has been staying at home for the whole time.

there are at least 100k infections in my hometown Wuhan alone. The government doesn’t want to admit it because it promised to treat all infected patients for free. (No different from Bernie Sanders free shit)

Despite all the bad news that I am telling you in this thread, I actually think the worse is over. Look at stock prices of LAKE and a few others. They are topping. Mr. Market is right most of the time.

There are many who got infected but never got confirmed because there is a huge shortage of the PCR test kit. Some of them die and quickly got burned. No stats in the official numbers. But there are also some of these guys who self cured. So calculating the death rate from the official numbers is grossly inaccurate.

What does "Prime Broker" mean? Is there any difference between that and other brokers like TD, Schwab, TradeStation?

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact: https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21 I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so. Well, the last numbers I saw were a bit alarming. The last ones I saw were 56 deaths for 1,975 confirmed cases. Frankly, if those are the correct numbers, it should scare the shit out of you because that would be a case fatality rate of 3%. But, should we believe those numbers? I suspect that the 56 dead guys is probably a pretty decent number (maybe there are a few more who died from it, but were misattributed). But should we believe the estimate of 1,975 cases of the virus? Or is it really 10,000 cases of the virus, of which 8,000 never came to the attention of public health authorities because they stayed home and got better with no medical intervention? There's a big difference between 56 dead guys out of 1,975 and 56 out of 10,000. One is a pandemic that is scary as hell, and the other is not such a frightening event. That's how H1N1 started out in Mexico. The apparent case fatality rate was frighteningly high. But, the Mexicans couldn't count what the people who never needed medical intervention. So a nasty influenza that looked like a bad pandemic wasn't quite as bad as originally thought. Let's hope that the denominator is wrong in this case too. SJ Right now the government only acknowledge cases tested by the PCR kit. However there is a shortage of such kits and most patients (like my two relatives) keep running to various hospitals day after day before they finally get tested. The 1900 infection number is just a joke. The actual number is likely in the 100k range. Check out SARS stats for example. 5k infections and 300 death in China, vs 1100 infections and 200 death in Hong Kong. The death rate almost doubles in Hong Kong. Is Hong Kong medical system that much worse than China? Or is someone faking the numbers?

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead. While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about!

When my two relatives were running around hoping to get hospitalized, they saw a doctor's family member infected, and was told by the doctor that he has to go home because there is no bed. So how do you expect the doctor to have mood to hospitalize strangers?

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized? Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds. Your story sounds like a whole load of BS. There is absolutely no way the hospital is letting an infected victim just go home. They’ll house them in tents if there aren’t any beds and keep them quarantined. Your comment is like adding salt to the wound. You have no respect and no sympathy for my relatives and for people who got infected. You don't have to believe anything I said. Just go there and look at it yourself.

Thanks for sharing that firsthand information. I hope everyone in your family ends up alright. What makes you think that’s the number has already hit 100k? Each hospital's waiting time is at least 5 hours. A couple thousand angry patients waiting in line. Multiple that by the number of hospitals and multiple 3 (arbitrary number in my mind) for people who got infected but haven't shown any symptoms yet. Keep in mind that there is a 14 day quiet period after infection where no symptom is shown.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized? Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds. I have read that many patients who went to the hospital and asked to be tested and were denied the test. It’s an expensive test and the doctor says they need get special approvals. A lot of people who got turned away from the hospital and stayed at home were not counted in the official stats. The research scientists did a great job coming up with a PCR testing kit that can accurately identify the virus RNA sequence. It is not expensive, but the kits are not available in a lot of hospitals. My two relatively got tested by the kit so they know they are positive. Most people couldn't get one even until they die. The government officials screwed up everything. They lied to public and tried to tell everyone that this is no big deal. Even on Jan 19th, they tried to lie to public and show everything is fine by organizing a 40k people potluck. How stupid.

Lol what? How were they diagnosed BEFORE being hospitalized? Why not? They come to the hospital, wait for 5 hours while infecting all other patients waiting in line (and being infected as well). Then they met the doctor, who asked the nurse to do a series of lab testing for them. Then results show positive. And doctor says sorry we don't have any beds for you today. Go home and try to come here again tomorrow to see if we have any empty beds.

I am from Wuhan and I have lots of friends and relatives there. I could tell you this: If you trust the government's stats of 500 infections and 17 deaths, it is no different from buying Chinese stocks merely based on their financial reports. All fake numbers. The actual number is likely in the 100k range. Right now even the doctors ran out of masks and gloves and are working unprotected. I don't know how much longer they can last before they are down. I have 3 relatives infected. One staying at home, and two who spent 6 days going to each hospital to try to get hospitalized. They were all told one thing: We don't have resources for you. Go home. They finally got hospitalized yesterday. Think about it. That's after they are diagnosed positive. They are walking on the streets for 6 days while spreading the virus everywhere, with no hospital taking them in. There are thousands and thousands of such patients. There are also dead bodies everywhere in all hospitals. They are dead on the floor and for hours, no one comes to pick the bodies up. When they do get picked up, they are immediately sent to the funeral to be burned, without any diagnose of whether they got infected by this virus or else. Therefore the 17 death is just a joke.

If you are good enough, you should not need margin. David Tepper is doing 30% a year without margin. If you are not good enough.... hmm..... Why use margin to kill yourself faster? With that said, if you want to use margin, you ABSOLUTELY need to have a plan that includes a stop loss mechanism purely based on price alone, no questions asked. Otherwise, no matter how many times you compound, if you multiply it with a 0, it is a 0.

What do you think of AB? The PE is just 13.

Have you tried consulting with AOC, the lady with infinite wisdom? Maybe she should propose a law for the pot restrictions

Are they generally valued on some multiple of AUM? Do they generally trade with high correlation to the stock index? How do you identify good asset manager stocks vs bad ones?

Still nothing? Does it mean the case would not be heard or does it mean it would be pushed for consideration in the next term?

No. Buying ETF is not much different from buying a mutual fund. The index ETFs are different because they don't actively trade, though when they do, you still get some additional forms to fill. For active ETFs, it is just like investing in an active mutual fund. Think about it this way: If you can buy an active ETF and enjoy long term gain, then why don't you launch an ETF yourself and put all of your money into it, and actively trade it yourself, and enjoy long term gain? That's an obvious tax loophole if it works. It doesn't work that way.

I think they can only trade near the end of the market close to adjust the leverage to maintain 3X. The name is 3X daily which tells you that they adjust daily. The tax consequences is insane. I would not consider it unless in my tax deferred account.

These 3x are only good for holding short term. You shouldn't consider holding them for 10 years. The reason is because they adjust the leverage ratio daily to keep it 3x. For example, if you enter a period of choppy up down market. Let's give a more extreme example to make it clearer: it is up 10% first day, down 10% second day, up 10, down 10....... Then at the end of first day, it has to increase the leverage by 10% to keep it 3x. So as soon as it increased the leverage by 10%, the market is down 10% next day, so at the end of next day, it has to decrease leverage by 10%, which is also the exact wrong time as it is up 10% again the 3rd day.... So if you hold SPY unleveraged, after 4 days, you are break even, but if you hold 3x leverage, after 4 days, you have 130% * 70% * 130% * 70% = 0.82, so you just lost 18% of your money in 4 days. Of course if the market is in an up streak, then you'll do extremely well, but up streaks are very rare and usually short even in greatest bull markets.