LC

Been coors for the last few days. Waiting for trout season as well. Fly rods getting itchy.

3000 deaths in China, and its on the decline. But yea, exponential growth for the win! Or do you have some data that suggests Americans are more prone to death than Chinese folks? Forget China- the case in Italy is most illustrative because we can trust the reporting. The fact that deaths in Italy does not appear exponentially horrific is a very good sign.

Well, a few things: Frankly, what do WB, RD, or HM know about viral infections? I would trust doctors on this message board before I would Warren Buffett if I showed symptoms. Secondly, that's exactly what they should be saying. They are public figures and are not informed professionals - anything they say could be misleading at best. And thirdly I wouldn't even say there's so much conviction on this board. I think people are extrapolating the few known data points in the spirit of 'better safe than sorry'.

I can't! I think both countries should be limiting travel internationally for at least a few weeks. Citizens returning from overseas (particularly problem areas) should be quarantined and tested.

No, this is leadership: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-trump-cdc-atlanta-visit-cancelled-outbreak-latest-a9381146.html Donald Trump has cancelled his visit to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters amid coronavirus fears, according to a senior White House official. Trump “does not want to interfere with the CDC’s mission to protect the health and welfare of their people and the agency,” the White House official said on Friday.

Please follow proper personal safety procedure:

Quoting this because it is exactly the point. China fatality rates in the 2.3% range, Italy in the 3.4% range. Regardless of which you select the COVID-19 is much deadlier than the flu. I am not sure why some very intelligent people are not acknowledging this difference. This goes to the general point on poor leadership coming from the White House. Some people are whining that all this criticism of our government's response is "making this political". If you can't criticize a government's response to a viral pandemic, what can you criticize? The color of their (bio)suit jacket? Please, put your big boy pants on today. By any judgment, the federal government's efforts have already failed (in the previous few weeks where almost nothing was done) and are currently failing for reasons previously mentioned related to quarantines, communications, and testing. CDC needs to determine federal procedures under the assumption that we are 2-3 weeks in the future and Trump's administration needs to put those procedures in place yesterday. Testing kits need to be distributed on a much larger scale. Twitter rants cannot be the primary method of communication and Mike Pence needs to be replaced as the point-of-contact with someone who has medical knowledge.

I am of the mind that we should be criticizing failure (and even learning from it!) rather then bending over and being grateful for it. Ineffective leaders should not lead others; ineffective money managers should not manage OPM. Hopefully an approaching spring season will be a cure all.

Castanza, I could care less about empathy or how someone feels about a potentially lethal virus. Bedside manner isn't an issue here. What is concerning is the apathy and excuse-making for a federal government which cannot distribute and administer test kits, cannot disseminate accurate information, and cannot properly quarantine high-risk individuals despite having a month long head start vs. other global areas. And instead of holding that government accountable, we hear things like "who cares? the old people are going to die anyways". And when you hear stories like this: What I think of is a failure of leadership at the top to deliver a message. Instead there is a lack of leadership and so people are making all kinds of bad decisions.

What bothers me is the cynicism. That mentality does not solve problems or drive progress towards making things better. What I hear is: "vaccines are hardly effective, we don't know how to measurably limit viral transmission, the two-week incubation period reduces usefulness of testing, only the very old are fatally at risk - therefore there is nothing we can do." So forget even bothering to mobilize government resources to make test kits widely available, forget quarantine responses, forget expanding care facilities and resources, forget even trying to develop a vaccine... The real problem is the group of invertebrates looking for 1-ft hurdles to jump over. And if all they see are 6-ft hurdles, well then just "toss it in the 'too hard' pile". Well, some problems cannot just be tossed in the too hard pile and must be dealt with despite being a 6-ft hurdle. This is why we have things like government resources - to tackle the problems that nobody else wants to. And so those who say, "eh, fuck it!", and those who encourage the government to do the same, that type of behavior is not even worth a second glance.

Now that doesn't sound like any fun at all :( ;D

To add an anecdote, a friend's mother was recently in northern Italy and returned home to the Netherlands. She then experienced flu-like symptoms, and was told to self-quarantine and that a test kit would be delivered to her. Within three/four days, she had the test kit performed and results back (negative - thankfully).

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/04/crispr-gene-editing-tool-used-inside-patient-blindness-portland/4950458002/

A man’s wife asks him to go to the store to buy some cigarettes, so he walks down to the store only to find it closed. So he goes into a nearby bar to use the vending machine. At the bar he sees a beautiful woman and starts talking to her. They have a couple of beers and one thing leads to another and they end up in her apartment. After they’ve had their fun, he realizes its 3 a.m. and says, “Oh no, it’s so late, my wife’s going to kill me.” He takes his shoes outside and rubs them in the grass and mud, then proceeds home. His wife is waiting for him in the doorway and she is pretty pissed off. “Where the hell have you been?!?!” “Well, honey, it’s like this. I went to the store like you asked, but they were closed. So I went to the bar to use the vending machine. I saw this great-looking chick there and we had a few drinks and one thing led to another and I ended up in bed with her.” She sees his shoes are covered with grass and says, “You lying bastard!!! You’ve been golfing again!!!”

Yea that’s proper technique. You’ve gotta pull the finger-lick maneuver to remove excess grease particularly if you’re given a fixed amount of napkins and can’t afford to saturate the napkin’s full absorption potential on the first slice. And don’t go claiming jersey- ignorance, Jon Stewart knew it: http://www.cc.com/video-clips/0ect4f/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart-me-lover-s-pizza-with-crazy-broad

LC, i am sitting here in the restaurant laughing like hell and everyone is looking at me like i am a nut. Best laugh i have had in a while and i needed that! Laughter is the best medicine...let’s try to laugh the coronavirus away?

Wow. ZIRP here we come. No need to stock up on toilet paper, just head to the bank! ;D

Thanks benny. IMHO that answer is unsatisfying as he doesn't address zero or neg. rates. Lets look at some of the large banks that Brk holds: Bank / Net Interest Income / Non Interest Income WFC / 47.2 / 44.5 BAC / 45.3 / 42.3 JPM / 50.0 / 53.9 Zero or negative rates will wipe out pretty much 50% of these banks income. ROEs will come down to the 5-7% (being generous) range.

Thanks, I’ll see if I can find a transcript and find those comments. I wonder what his rationale is. In Europe the experience has been exactly the opposite.

Is anyone aware of any analysis done on how zero/negative US interest rates will affect Berkshire? And/or if Buffett has made any comment on this? I would imagine a hit to the large amount of fixed products held at the parent co and the various insurance co's, plus all the bank holdings in the equity portfolio will take a hit. Partly offset by some benefit to the operating companies and rolling over debt.

This thread will be a pretty good case study regardless of which direction COVID 19 plays out.

I’m not positive but I did hear the quote on this forum, possibly from one of our favorite anarchists :) Regardless I think it’s a brilliant quote. It’s all fair to come to different conclusions given the facts and evidence, but that information must be presented!

"Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master"

Atrocious.

A fellow rum drinker, and fleur de cana no less! The 7 year I think is incredible, and actually the 4 year is an incredible value. I personally don't like the ultra-aged rums. When I go to costa/nica I practically live on the 4 year over ice; incredibly refreshing in the heat and humidity. Cheers!