LC

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/tax-change-coronavirus-stimulus-act-millionaires-billionaires Covid stimulus bill allows pass-through losses to be deducted against unrelated income sources. Let no crisis go to waste!

At the risk of sounding misanthropic: I think the lesson here is that, this WILL happen again (could be next year, next decade, next century - but viruses do not go away) ; and we will NOT be prepared, we will not learn from this, and to think otherwise is to grossly overestimate the ability for a bunch of tribal nations and populist leaders to "do what is right". Look at China and the US to see what the world powers are doing: totalitarian misinformation vs. egotistical misinformation. Nonsense all around.

Over the last 1.5 weeks I dipped the toes into: goog ; wfc ; tfsl ; xom ; nlsn & mo (told myself i wouldn't but so cheap...) ; irm Some of these were repeat customers. At about 10% cash and can raise more if necessary over the coming months.

The one thing I've learned about marketing is to never underestimate human ignorance ;D ;D ;D

I do agree with Spek that FL has seen boom & bust for decades. We bought foreclosure properties in St. Pete's for 40k in 2012, worth 5-6x that amount now. FL is one of the most volatile areas for real estate. That said, there is a point here regarding hedging tax/political climate. If you live in a state with a heavy tax regime, investments in states with an opposing tax philosophy may provide a valuable and cheap hedge. Choose your state carefully, of course.

Apologies way in advance for this one:

First and foremost, hopefully his health improves. On his fund, what a turn of events. I presume the drastic swing (from “400% man” to blown up) is due to leverage. Goes to show you that objective #1 is to stay in the game.

Reposting this about a month later, now to see the effect in Europe: http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

I know you guys hate him, but this is satire you realize, right? The worst part is that it's becoming harder and harder to tell ;D

An article on the generational economic impact of coronavirus: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/millennials-are-new-lost-generation/609832/ The Millennials entered the workforce during the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Saddled with debt, unable to accumulate wealth, and stuck in low-benefit, dead-end jobs, they never gained the financial security that their parents, grandparents, or even older siblings enjoyed. They are now entering their peak earning years in the midst of an economic cataclysm more severe than the Great Recession, near guaranteeing that they will be the first generation in modern American history to end up poorer than their parents.

I would spend more time investigating your underlying assumptions: Look for historical data to see which commodities respond to the risk factors you mention in the method that provides the diversification benefit you are aiming for.

I agree this is still a growth opportunity due to so much dislocation in the industry. It also may be useful to look from a supply side: this is an area where immigrant women have historically thrived. You can start working with an Associate's degree which is a cost and time friendly option (as it is more difficult to invest in 4 year programs for this demographic) and there are growth paths in the field.

;D Here's one: A teacher asked her students to share what their dads do for a living. Little Johnny says, "My dad's a stripper at a gay nightclub and he turns tricks in the alley way to earn extra money." The teacher was absolutely mortified and after class she pulls little Johnny aside and asks, "Johnny is your dad really a stripper at a gay night club?!" Little Johnny said, "No. He's actually a reporter for CNN but I was too ashamed to say that."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-opec/opec-russia-approve-biggest-ever-oil-cut-to-support-prices-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-idUSKCN21U0J6 OPEC+ sources said they expected total global oil cuts to amount to more than 20 million bpd, or 20 percent of global supply, effective May 1.

The economy is so bad (how bad?)...so bad, that: My neighbor got a pre-declined credit card in the mail. CEO's are now playing miniature golf. Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen. I saw a Mormon with only one wife. McDonald's is selling the 1/4 ouncer. Angelina Jolie adopted a child from America. Parents in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and learned their children's names. A truckload of Americans was caught sneaking into Mexico. A picture is now only worth 200 words. When Bill and Hillary travel together, they now have to share a room. The Treasure Island casino in Las Vegas is now managed by Somali pirates. And, finally... I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, jobs, my savings, Social Security, retirement funds, etc., I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Afghanistan, and when I told them I was suicidal, they got all excited, and asked if I could drive a truck!

I disagree. The biggest mistake is permanent loss of capital.

That’s a fair point Viking re the most vulnerable groups

19 years of patriot act vs 1 month of quarantine

There's this weird notion that the only thing "American" is this sense of unbridled freedom. But if you look through history you see some of the most successful and defining periods of "America" being ones where the federal government did, in fact, do lots of dictating: the civil war, the buildup and execution in WW2, and cold war are the three that immediately come to mind. I think a term like "democratic adaptability" is a more generalist description of American behavior, if I had to choose one. And this idea that rugged individualism as a defining American characteristic is pretty off-the-mark. To bring it back, this deli owner pretty much said, "Screw all the sacrifice that the rest of society is making". Not illegal (or maybe it was - not sure what the laws in Jersey are) - but dickish behavior.

Relying on habit is a slippery slope since it only takes 21 days to 1 year to break or rather change a habit into something else. For most people, it's already 30 days since the lockdown. People have been changed imho. I disagree and think once lockdown is lifted we may see a 1-2 week period of "tentative" behavior but will revert rather quickly afterwards, as people are quite frustrated with sitting home all day and night.

Definitely the former. Humans are social creatures. Everyone I know is sick of being cooped-up inside. I think once the social distancing measures are lifted, maybe people will be a bit wary at first, but eventually we'll take back the streets :D

A man walks out to the street and catches a taxi just as it's going by. As he gets into the taxi, and the cabbie says, "Impeccable timing. You're just like Frank." Passenger: "Who?" Cabbie: "Frank Feldman. He's a guy who did everything right all the time. Like my coming along when you needed a cab, things happened like that to Frank Feldman every single time." Passenger: "There are always a few clouds over everybody." Cabbie: "Not Frank Feldman. He was a terrific athlete. He could have won the Grand-Slam at tennis. He could golf with the pros. He sang like an opera baritone and danced like a Broadway star and you should have heard him play the piano. He was an amazing guy." Passenger: "Sounds like he was really something special." Cabbie: "There's more. He had a memory like a computer. He remembered everybody's birthday. He knew all about wine, which foods to order and which fork to eat them with. He could fix anything. Not like me. I change a fuse, and the whole street blacks out. But Frank Feldman could do everything right.” Passenger: "Wow, what a guy!" Cabbie: "He always knew the quickest way to go in traffic and avoid traffic jams. Not like me, I always seem to get stuck in them. But Frank, he never made a mistake, and he really knew how to treat a woman and make her feel good. He would never answer her back even if she was in the wrong; and his clothing was always immaculate, shoes highly polished too. He was the perfect man! He never made a mistake. No one could ever measure up to Frank Feldman." Passenger: "How did you meet him?" Cabbie: "I never actually met Frank. He died and I married his wife."

In Colorado, check out black project. Great sours.

Good question and idea. I am thinking some of the banks? And maybe oil majors? Maybe even Berkshire given their banks exposure. I need to check the option prices but the general thesis is look for good businesses with one time COVID impacts.