writser

Textbook example of mental biases at work here... you don't correct one mistake by making another. With regards to this, I enjoyed these blogpost I stumbled upon a few days ago: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/the-psychology-of-sitting-in-cash/ http://abnormalreturns.com/2013/02/04/cash-is-a-drug/

Unless there are specific tax reasons, why not buy them back at current prices if you wanted to keep them as permanent holdings? If I understand the jist of your post correctly you wouldn't sell them either at current prices if you still had them.

LOL. Maybe you guys can ask him how can he lead a fairly stress free life while running one of the largest companies in USA and periodically running into near-death corporate situations (Washington Post strike in 70s, SEC investigation in 70s, Salomon Brothers debacle, Gen Re debacle, Net Jets debacle, death of all the "made in America" brands he bought, Lubrizol and Sokol, etc.). I would have killed myself multiple times during his career. "Stress free" my a** ??? ::) :-X :'( :o Just wanted to +1 this. He's responsible for 100k+ jobs and gazillions of dollars. Every word he says is measured on a golden scale. Really, if you think he's living a relaxed, stress-free life: you are utterly, utterly wrong and have probably never been in a position that's even remotely similar to his one.

Thanks for the (short) reviews :) . On my to-read list. Going to up it a few places.

Instead of trying to figure out what you don't know you could also entertain a slightly different viewpoint: how do I not get killed by what I don't know? The more you expect you don't know the more you should diversify. Unfortunately it is hard to judge your own (lack of) knowledge - which suggests you should diversify.

They had taxes already, but now they actually are supposed to pay them :) . I don't think the election result is a surprise. What I am afraid of is that Syriza won a huge number of votes by promising stuff they can never deliver. Sure, you can make 'demands' from the EU and badmouth them but if you act unreasonable at some point the EU will give you the finger and everybody will be worse off. I think cooperation would be a better strategy (for both sides) but it's hard to win votes with that. That said I don't know a lot about the Greece situation so this is all just speculation.

I meant what lathinker said. The German listings are very illiquid and I have no real-time pricefeed. I probably only get filled when a specialist thinks he can make enough money arbitraging my order vs. the Greek listing. I have a trading background and I hate burning money this way, even though I am aware that this line of reasoning is irrational if the stocks are cheap enough. But apart from Intralot most of the stocks that looked interesting didn't have a German listing anyway. As far as I've read on this forum Fidelity offers access to loads of exchanges. Unfortunately they only accept US clients.

I agree. But I also think one of the reasons is that it is hard to invest in individual Greek stocks for a lot of investors. The only broker that lets me invest in individual Greek stocks is 'degiro', a Dutch discount broker that I consider too incompetent to deposit a significant sum of money. So there are a couple of names I can't trade at all and for a couple of names I have to trade the extremely illiquid German listings and hope I don't get ripped off - which I don't like either. I'm also not a fan of buying an ETF because I have no clue about how to value most Greek stocks (especially banks). Basically there is a hodgepodge of reasons why I don't have any Greek exposure and that's probably exactly the reason why it will outperform :) . Are there any other names you like / own besides Intralot?

As a sidenote, have you ever considered doing the trading in-house? In my experience most brokers don't add much value for on-exchange trading - especially if you only have small orders. Discretionary instructions are typically interpreted as: ripping the client off as much as you can get away with. Long term you're probably cheaper and easier off opening an IB account. If you have smallish orders in liquid stuff the best option might be to instruct MOO or MOC and compare to the official prints. The easier it is to check your executions, the better your pricing will be.

Right now I am up 79% annualized. You should use a spell checker before posting. I'm up 81% annualized now due to trade in an illiquid holding. I'm sorry about my previous post and I'm sorry about offending Gio. I agree with everything you said ;D ;D ;D.

Right now I am up 79% annualized. You should use a spell checker before posting >:( >:( >:(.

This is just a retarded topic and the fact that you are allowed to open topics like this doesn't mean you should. If you have 3000+ posts and manage your own company you are probably a bit of a role model for new posters and you should refrain from bragging about short-term results. It is childish, useless, encourages excessive risk taking and sets a bad example. I also don't understand why other people feel the need to defend Gio: "Yes, this is a stupid topic but let's be nice to each other and cuddle him". He's been around here for a while, he knows that his posts are considered controversial at times and he should be smart enough to expect some flak if he opens a topic like this. There you go. My negative contribution for the day >:( >:( >:( . I'm up only 80% annualized or something so I have the right to be angry.

Please don't.

Your avatar? Hah. It's an otter performing chip tricks. Not a groundhog! I actually paid somebody to design it almost a decade ago when I played poker online :o . Unfortunately this forum doesn't support animated avatars. http://writser.nl/images/otter.gif

That's probably a joke but I don't get it. Anyway, the 'no car' option is apparently no option. It is the cheapest though.

I only have a bike ...

I'm surprised we haven't discussed this crucial aspect of quantitative easing yet (from the letters page of the FT):

Mr. Market does not like your jokes apparently.

The euro/dollar is currently trading at or around the lowest level in a decade and, for example, Greek stocks have been absolutely slaughtered last year. Yet everybody is only talking about debt levels, Grexits, bailouts and stagflation. We value investors should adhere to the classic principle: "price is what you pay, value is what you get" but somehow if we talk macro all we do is analyse debt levels, GDP, inflation etc. In other words, all we do is looking at qualitative issues (the value part of the equation). But with the euro trading so low and with EU equities trading at depressed multiples maybe we should buy European stuff even if Europe is screwed. Consider it a liquidation play :) . Anything is good value at some price. Maybe we've reached that stage already. Just an observation - no specific insights either way.

I tend to agree, but this is the super standard consensus view that is repeated ad nauseam in every newspaper, on television and on every website. So even if this is correct it might very well be priced in already given the strong USD, CHF, weak EUR, low European stock prices, etc. and we shouldn't feel to smug about our macro insights. Basically we are just following the herd. At least Nate is original :) . And he might just be ruffling our feathers a bit.

Couple of ones I read. I'm sorry for the horrible layout - this is an exported list and I couldn't get it in a normal format. The bold blogs I consider to be excellent (I probably forgot a few though). Note that this list reflects my style of investing: international, diversified, small caps, no macro. If you have a different style you might not like some of these blogs. <li>[<a href="http://valueandopportunity.com/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="http://valueandopportunity.com">value and opportunity</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://alphavulture.com/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="http://alphavulture.com">Alpha Vulture</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://otcadventures.com/?feed=rss2">RSS</a>] <a href="http://otcadventures.com">OTC Adventures</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://www.oddballstocks.com/feeds/posts/default">RSS</a>] <a href="http://www.oddballstocks.com/">Oddball Stocks</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://wexboy.wordpress.com/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="https://wexboy.wordpress.com">Wexboy</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://quinzedix.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default">RSS</a>] <a href="http://quinzedix.blogspot.com/">the red corner</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/BarelKarsan">RSS</a>] <a href="http://www.barelkarsan.com/">Barel Karsan</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://www.valueinvestingblog.net/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="http://www.valueinvestingblog.net">ValueInvestingBlog.net</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default">RSS</a>] <a href="http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/">The Brooklyn Investor</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/kerrisdalecap/CdUB">RSS</a>] <a href="http://kerrisdalecap.com">Kerrisdale Capital</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/GregSpeicher">RSS</a>] <a href="http://gregspeicher.com">GregSpeicher</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://bovinebear.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default">RSS</a>] <a href="http://bovinebear.blogspot.com/">Bull, Bear and Value</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://pakiyafunds.wordpress.com/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="http://pakiyafunds.wordpress.com">Pakiya Funds</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://heresyvalue.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default">RSS</a>] <a href="http://heresyvalue.blogspot.com/">HeresyValue</a></li> <li>[<a 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Investing</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://wertartcapital.com/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="http://wertartcapital.com">WertArt Capital » WertArt Capital</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://theodortonca.com/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="http://theodortonca.com">Theodor Tonca</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://www.stockspinoffs.com/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="http://www.stockspinoffs.com">Stock Spinoffs</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://ukvalueportfolio.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default">RSS</a>] <a href="http://ukvalueportfolio.blogspot.com/">UK Value Portfolio</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com/feed/">RSS</a>] <a href="https://oraclefromomaha.wordpress.com">= Value = Venture</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://expectingvalue.com/feed">RSS</a>] <a href="http://expectingvalue.com">Expecting Value</a></li> <li>[<a href="http://neoalpha.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default">RSS</a>] <a href="http://neoalpha.blogspot.com/">Neo-Alpha</a></li> <li>[<a 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A 2008 style crisis can erase 25% from ANY portfolio. Charlie Munger once said you should expect a 50% drawdown at some point in your career (and he experienced it too if I'm not mistaken). Just to give some bad scenarios: Senvest (which I hold too) is basically a leveraged bet on the stockmarket. In a downturn both its portfolio will decline quickly and clients withdraw assets. Their fund holds quite a few speculative positions. In 2013 Senvest was up 100%, I think it could easily go down 50% or more in a bad year. In such a year your OUTR options would expire worthlessly as well. I own a couple of your Japan holdings too. I think they are good bets but let's be honest, we invest in these companies from our couch in Europe and we don't know anything about them. Fujimak etc could easily decline 50% for some reason we don't know yet. If they are cooking the books, how could we ever know? Most of your holdings are smallcaps and I don't know enough about them but you can't rule out anything bad happening in these - they are no Berkshires or Exxons. And god forbid something terrible happens at Fairfax. Or suppose the euro crisis is over and the euro appreciates by 40% in a year - you'll underperform by roughly that percentage. Also, the point of diversification is not only to be protected from the risks you "know" but also that your portfolio can withstand the risks you "don't know". If something "unknown" happens with Fairfax you are down 25% instantly.

Couple of caveats: 1. The best _risk adjusted_ returns came from the 15 stock portfolio. Something roughly equal to what AlphaVulture is doing and quite different from 5 stocks. 2. The worst returns came from the concentrated portfolio with "bad" stocks. Whenever you pick stocks yourself concentration doesn't automatically imply you improve your performance, it just makes the outcomes more extreme. So you should be 100% sure you are a great stockpicker first. 3. As with any backtest I would be extremely skeptical due to survivorship bias, data cherry picking and data fitting. Lots of pitfalls.

His top 6 holdings include cash and Berkshire (which in itself is diversified already). Apart from one 10% holding his positions are almost all < 5% and he holds 20+ positions. I wouldn't call that concentration.

I've researched most of the names you hold and I own a couple of them too. That said, I think your portfolio is extremely risky and unless you are as great an investor as Packer there is a non-trivial chance of permanent loss of capital "experimenting with a concentrated portfolio". If you are retired I would say this is a horrible strategy but I assume you are young and do not depend on your portfolio for income. In that case it it just, well, risky ☺. Just my 2 cents, please don't feel offended.