writser

I also had quite a good job but quit when I was 30 and am 'retired' for about a decade since. Some random thoughts: 1. Investing full-time is lonely. You have to be 10.000% sure you will not miss working with colleagues and can handle the stress of pissing away a ton of money sitting alone behind your computer all day feeling like an idiot. I would actually say you kind of have to enjoy the latter . If not, well, you might make money but you will be miserable. 2. It really helps if you have some (preferably real life) friends and connections who are in the same boat so you can vent your frustrations, share some ideas, have a lunch every now and then when everybody else is working. Again, don't end up lonely and miserable. 3. If you have a relationship and/or kids: make sure your partner is on board, _really_ understands what you are doing. Discuss beforehand how you manage household costs and chores, raising kids, when you are going to pull the plug, what your expectations are, etc. Doing it alone is probably easier (going broke sucks a lot harder if you have a family, moving to Thailand is a lot easier if you're single) but there's a much higher risk of becoming a miserable loner. 4. I'd strongly advise you to have some hobbies (and especially sports or physical stuff) that keep you grounded in the real world, allow you to meet some new people and stay mentally healthy. Physical suffering helps to cope with mental suffering . 5. The market is highly efficient, don't expect to gain 10% alpha just by spending some extra time. Barely beating the market is already quite the accomplishment. For your retirement plan assume you don't beat the market (and certainly don't assume you will make 15% p.a. for the rest of your life). 6. Following up on that, if you have stashed away just enough money for a retirement (I guess $500k - $5m, depending on where and how you live) then yes, your returns will probably be a bit better when you quit your job but financially you are almost certainly better off working. Don't underestimate the value of an increasing fixed income stream, both financially and psychologically. Withdrawing your living costs from your investment portfolio sucks. 7. That said, yes, your returns should be better when you spend more time. Apart from becoming a better investor there are also pockets of the market where you can basically convert extra time into money, i.e. providing liquidity in illiquid stocks, quickly interpreting news in pre- and post-market, certain special situations, etc. 8. Keep detailed track of your results and (even more importantly) your thought process and the valuation of the things in your portfolio. Write stuff down for yourself, on forums, on Twitter, or on a blog. That way you keep yourself accountable, you allow others to spot mistakes and when things go south or unexpected developments occur you are "anchored" much better and you will know what to do and it will make it easier to do the right thing. I firmly believe in: "you can't borrow confidence". That was a lot of rambling. To conclude: my main advice would be to think "will this make me happier" rather than "will this make me more money". And if that's a question you have any doubts about then the answer is probably that it will not make you happier. It’s not about the returns, it’s about how you enjoy spending your time.

Very well done! I'm up ~7.5% in EUR, so around break-even in USD. Not the best year, as always I made some mistakes here and there. Nevertheless I am reasonably content to see my deep value / special situations grab bag holding up in a challenging year. As in 2020, special situations tend not to be completely market neutral in case the shit really hits the fan. This year, ADES was an example of something that might have worked out a year earlier. Management should have simply liquidated as there was absolutely no appetite for a cash box pursuing a speculative SPAC-like deal in 2022. I liked the setup but that was ugly. RBCN was an example of something that worked out very well - if you paid some attention you could make some very decent trades around the Janel tender offer. As in other years there's still quite a bit of fat left on the bones in terms of CVR's, liquidations and delisted instruments for which I simply use brokerage marks. That performance will show up when these instruments pay out (or don't). Noteworthy are a large position in the PDLI liquidation, a position in UDF IV that is potentially very undervalued, a large position in Genkyotex CVR's and a position in the BMY CVR lawsuit. Last year I also added quite a bit of Akouos CVR's to my grab bag last year. Also, a decent (and growing) chunk of my portfolio is in expert market stocks now. Some of these are ridiculously cheap and I am very happy to own them.

@kab60 here you go. Also, congrats on an excellent year! You da man. I'm up either 25% or 40%, depending on where I mark my assets .. The difference is mostly explained by UDFI, which has a last traded price of $1.40 but trades in the secondary market at $6.26 after some good news this year. Same for BMY CVR's, marked at zero but the fully funded ones trade at $1.50 in the secondary market. I also acquired a couple of large tax assets / receivables that do not show up in my brokerage accounts but are definitely worth a few percent. So, whatever, pick the number you like. I'm going with 25%, the additional 15% will show up at some point in time in my CAGR. And on top of the above I own quite a few assets that are now listed in the OTC expert market. Prices there flip all over the place. It feels like this year determining my return is an art rather than a science. More important than the actual number is whether the underlying process was solid during the year and on that front I'm pretty happy. In 2020 I felt like what I was able to achieve was really impeded by lockdowns, having a little kid in the house, being worried, etc. It was a frustrating year. In 2021 we had a much better home setup (better secluded work spots, clearly defined work schedules), i.e. we were much better prepared for Corona / work from home. And I guess I also tempered my expectations a bit regarding what I would be able to do. Even though we had a second kid last year and contractors remodeled our house while we were working from home I felt much better about getting some time and effort into my portfolio. Though perhaps, ex ante, that is also explained by the better results .. In terms of my investing, my biggest strength but also my biggest weakness is that I'm probably too risk-averse. My portfolio is diversified, unlevered and I dabble a lot in special situations. I haven't had a down year since I started investing / trading and my average annual return is about 20% with a 10% standard deviation. So I expect to underperform in bull markets (i.e. you are never going to get 50% p.a. if you own a few merger arbs with an expected 20% IRR) and outperform in bear markets. Unfortunately there hasn't been a real bear market since I started investing .. So I'm pretty happy to keep up with all major indices in a great year. No super large losers this year and no super large winners either. I don't see the need to discuss particular names because I haven't been very active here during the year. Over the years I find myself posting less and less here. With two young kids in the house I don't have time to browse forums all day long and, well, there's just a lot being discussed here that doesn't really fit my style so I feel my time is better spent elsewhere. No hard feelings, I like this place! One last thing to mention, I don't know how you guys feel but I'm not particularly excited about my portfolio (nor the market) right now. No high conviction stuff positions, basically everything is up for sale.

I also looked a bit into OCBC but that seems to be an inferior option to me. First of all, it seems that setting up an account requires a bit more documentation ( https://portal.iocbc.com/accounts/basic-securities-trading-account#apply-online-basic-trading ) which could be a hassle. Note that I haven't really tried to do so, so maybe requirement 3: [quote>Bank statement from a Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) licensed bank Latest CPF statement Latest Notice of tax assessment from IRAS can be sidestepped, but it might be difficult to produce these documents. On top of that, far more annoying if I am correct, OCBC offers only trading by phone for Korea: https://portal.iocbc.com/platforms/global-market-access.page . I hate placing orders by phone. It's expensive, error-prone and I find it very annoying to talk English over the phone when both speakers are non-native speakers and have their own mangled accent. Phillip Capital / Securities: same thing: expensive, only over-the-phone trading. That seems like the least favorable option. According to this list: https://the-international-investor.com/comparison-tables#findstockbrokers Swissquote would also work, which could be a simple alternative. Haven't tried that one yet - if I remember correctly somebody here said it wasn't actually possible in practice.

Regarding Boom, I enquired there a few weeks ago about opening an account as a foreigner. This is what they told me: [quote> Our individual account opening procedures is simple.  You need to fill in an application form (cash / margin) and submit the below documents to us: https://www.boom.com/en/open_account/ 1)  Passport copy (certified true copy) 2)  Home address proof (ie. credit card / electricity bills within 3 months that shows the client's name and address) (copy) You need to mail in the application and arrange a witness to certify your passport copy as well as the signature on your account application form. The witness can be Justice of Peace, or professional (Bank Manager, Certified Accountant, Solicitor or Notary Public).    Please note that U.S. citizens / residents will not be eligible for trading in the U.S. market.    Please mail the originally signed application and other documents to our office by post: Customer Services Dept. Monex Boom Securities (H.K.) Limited Room 2501, 25/F., AIA Tower 183 Electric Road North Point Hong Kong After your BOOM account is set up, you can transfer funds directly from your bank account in your personal name in overseas via telegraphic funds transfer to one of our bank accounts in Hong Kong (HSBC / Hang Seng Bank / Standard Chartered Bank / Bank of China (HK) Limited): https://www.boom.com/en/customer_service/funds_management/ That seems very doable. I live in Europe - not sure if the same applies to US residents who want to open an account.

Many Dutchies here .. Lekker bezig!

Yeah, this is not a conversion. Check out the ISIN of JARLF: BMG507361001 . BMG means country of domicile is Bermuda. That's not an ADR, an ADR is a US domiciled instrument and as such it's ticket always starts with USxxxxxx. Even more important, you can see that the ISIN of the Singapore listed stock is also BMG507361001 ( https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-information/1327 ). ISIN's are unique so this means that you still own the same instrument. No wrapper, no anything, this is literally the stock that is traded in Singapore. Stocks can be traded on different exchanges and the resulting positions are held in different depots. E.g. BMG507361001 is tradable in Germany, Singapore and the US. Now, if you buy in Germany and you sell in Singapore on the same day you have a problem because these positions are held in different depots and as such will not cancel each other out. But your broker can usually facilitate this with a depot transfer, i.e. ask them to transfer the shares held in Germany (at Euroclear or whatever) to Singapore. So the one thing that could have gone wrong here is that your broker decided autonomously to transfer your SG shares to the US depot and if you want to sell them in Singapore you have to ask your broker to transfer them back. I think it is very unlikely that this happened because such a transfer actually costs money and this is definitely not something that happens arbitrarily / automatically. If I had to guess I'd say that you are just experiencing a software issue where your broker messes up the ticker and if you sell in Singapore everything will be fine. But I'd check that just to be sure. Or try to sell one share in Singapore, see what happens. If you would own JMHLY (check it out, it has a US ISIN) that would actually imply a conversion and that would be REALLY strange. Because suddenly you'd own a different instrument with potential different tax treatment, withholding taxes, ADR fees, etc. That is definitely not something a decent broker should be able to do without your consent.

Hah, yes, looking forward to that one. All the angry IMDB reviews probably mean that I will enjoy it a lot. We've been watching Bosch. Season one is a bit cheeky but two and three are better, imho. Some actors from the Wire, has a bit of the same vibe too in its best scenes. Though of course it's not nearly as good. Still, nothing is, and Bosch is very enjoyable.

Slightly off-topic, but people were shitting all over Bruce a few years ago, but he has actually been doing very well lately - of course that doesn't make the news. https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/fairx/performance Up 47% in 2020, top 2 percentile performance for the past 1,3, and 5 years. I like his approach. Really seems to be doing his own thing.

I actually think the Kelly Criterion can be useful to play around with a bit if you have never done that - just to get a feel for the theory of position sizing and to compare relative position sizes (i.e. why do I have a 5% position in Google but only a 0.5% position in Microsoft even though my thought process about both names is about the same), but I agree that in practice in the stock market its application is limited and I hardly ever use it. l I think for me there are three prime drivers of position sizing: 1. Your personal situation (age, net worth, do you have a job, etc). If you are young and have a good job you can afford to take some risks. It doesn't work out? Write it off as a life lesson, worst case. But if you are a relatively poor retiree? You are fucked. 2. (downside) Risk. What happens if your thesis does not work out as expected? Are you buying a cash box or a growth story at 200x price / sales? E.g. "never lose money". I'd be extremely hesitant to put a large amount of money in a warrant or equity stub or something with an equal risk profile. 3. Level of confidence - the most tricky one. How sure are you that this is a good idea? Do you think you can correctly estimate all tail risks? What's the chance that you are missing an important piece of the puzzle? Can you point out what mistake others are making in their valuation? Why does this opportunity exist? What would you do if the stock cratered 50% today? The big problem with number 2 and especially number 3 is that they are very hard to quantify. A skeptical view of your own abilities is required. Often when I see people making huge bets / running concentrated portfolio's I feel like they are overestimating their own abilities. In that case Kelly isn't going to help you either because you will always overestimate your own edge and underestimate the risks. I guess for me it often comes down to: buy as much as you feel 'comfortable with' - and probably a bit less. I know, that's a vague concept, but if you are thinking all the time about a specific position or are anxious something will go wrong it's probably too big. And (at least in my case) very often plans and ideas turn out to be shit, no matter how confident you are initially. So even if you think: I would be totally comfortable with this being a 5% position, why not start with 3%? Often the exact moment of buying is not that time-critical anyway. So you can take it easy. Nibble a bit, take a break.

There was an interesting article in the Economist recently touching on that subject: https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/01/02/sars-cov-2-is-following-the-evolutionary-rule-book . I am unfortunately not an evolutionary biologist but that makes sense to me. There is no evolutionary advantage in a virus becoming more deadly. In fact it is probably a disadvantage, both because dead people cannot spread a virus effectively and because society would go in lockdown XXXXL if a new mutation is ten times as deadly. I guess that doesn't make it impossible in the short term though.

Thanks for sharing that, Befimmo looks like a reasonable REIT indeed at first glance.

I know I'm bumping a very old thread here, but does anyone have experience with Monex Boom? https://www.boom.com/en/why_boom/ . Based on what I can find it seems like one of the only ways to access the South Korean stock market. I'd vastly prefer Fidelity, as mentioned in this thread, but they don't allow European customers. Or are there any other alternatives I am missing?

Do periods where value outperform correlate with rising interest rates and vice versa? Might be one of the reasons value is taking such a beating the past few years. This seems like such a logical fundamental underpinning of growth versus value investing but it’s a concept that I never really thought about. Thanks for sharing.

A couple of you sent some nice messages after my last post, thanks for that. It felt good to write down some of my frustrations. But just to be clear: we're all healthy, the kid is awesome and I managed to eke out a small profit. All in all that's damn good for a terrible year like 2020 and I'm pretty much the last person you should feel sympathy for. John deserves that and the countless others who lost loved ones. Not to mention people who got fired, worked their ass off in the hospital, own a small business, etc. This was a terrible year for a lot of people and I was just whining from inside the stock market bubble. Something to keep in mind. Again, my condolences John.