Ulti

Your preaching to the choir.......Last saw that with voting down Munchin's pipeline bill (by both sides )https://news.yahoo.com/joe-manchin-suffers-big-loss-213812611.html Since I currently have a few large concentrated energy positions, I have a tendency to consume "data driven " (haha) info....I watched He gives a long data oriented presentation \360ish slides on demand ,supply, and all things oil. World view but his investment focus is on Canadian energy. He recommends some 15 minute recaps but since I'm old and dense.......

And I also think you can add Covid societal changes like working at home

I blame it on technology social media TikTok …..also us immigration policy….. whatever the cause to me it looks like the Fed has a loooong road to 2% inflation

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-workers-have-gotten-way-less-productive-no-one-is-sure-why/ar-AA13zbIT

https://www.seafarerfunds.com/prevailing-winds/security-over-growth/ good read on where China is heading

Having owned a practice for 40 years and recently retired....I can tell you I dismissed patients for this very reason. It certainly extended my career working on nice people.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/19/biden-says-oil-companies-should-prioritize-lowering-prices-over-stock-buybacks.html

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/columbia-energy-exchange/id1081481629?i=1000583065972 admin mouthpiece on price caps

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1lPKqBaomymGb?s=20 excellent podcast with Bill McBride.... emphasis on large decrease in houshold formations and how that plays into home ownership and MF

http://www.gasprocessingnews.com/news/canada-would-back-economically-viable-new-lng-terminals.aspx A tiny step forward for mankind (peoplekind to be politically correct haha)?

I dont know about that but this Strategic Reserve release has been one huge political sham...Biden certainly has increased future geopolitical risk with the move and has made the US much more vulnerable to OPEC+ Coordinating and building out clean fossil fuel infrastructure jointly with our northern neighbors should be our country and both parties primary focus . https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/energy-permitting-needs-reform/id1081481629?i=1000582461840 good podcast on the issues of permitting etc\Columbia Energy Exchange

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000582505498 excellent podcast on what’s happening in China… is China relations/ chips and more

We will find out shortly

I hope you are right... we need a comprehensive immigration policy to bring in workers for areas of need... I'm afraid the politics will be just like Manchin trying to streamline permitting ...... That being said, though I'm no expert, it seems like MF in desirable areas will continue to do well for the foreseeable future.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/apartments-net-absorption-very-low slower completion rate of apartments in the pipeline with softer demand

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000581366234 episode is all about inflation….good bit about rent and healthcare and how they are measured in cpi…. While mortgage interest is not anymore ( since they dropped it during Volkers time)

Oaktree and MF Multifamily has historically held up well during economic downturns. (See Figure 4.) This is primarily due to the asset class’s short average lease terms (typically one year) and relatively low annual capital requirements as well as the availability of debt financing from the federally backed agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Importantly, short average lease terms also benefit multifamily properties during periods of high inflation because property owners can quickly adjust rental rates. While we don’t expect growth in multifamily rents to continue to increase at the rapid pace recorded in the last 12 months, we believe the rate will remain fairly high over the short to medium term, as the supply of housing in much of the U.S. is insufficient to meet the demand. Moreover, we think the U.S. housing shortage could be exacerbated if anticipated increases in land, labor, and materials costs constrain new construction.

Also Bill McBride gives periodic info https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/pace-of-rent-increases-continues-601

https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data I like their monthly reports; kinda "just the facts"

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/corelogic-annual-us-rent-price-growth-slows-for-third-consecutive-month-in-july/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

https://macrohive.com/hive-podcasts/ep-122-ivy-zelman-on-the-coming-us-housing-crisis/ Sobering view on single and mf housing in the next few years

Ha. Let me ask a possible silly question.. One of the persons I try to read is alex gurevich; a global macro trader with his own shop. He seems to feel we are heading to(or in) a global recession and should be concerned with coming deflation.(looking at inflation is looking in the rear view mirror). It seems that companies like aiv and joe can handle this environment with clean balance sheets ,good locations and appeal to the top 10%er's. Is this too simplistic a viewpoint concerning mf and specialized (joe ) real estate ? Is the cyclicality of their business just due to supply\demand and that should be the focus?

https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rwh013-move-slow-win-big-w-thomas-russo/id928933489?i=1000579799238 Good interview with Tom Russo; Spends some time discussing his large position in BRK