Ulti

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/charlie-munger-weighs-in-on-u-s-china-trade-relations.html

sorry for the goofup post

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/3-investing-lessons-from-a-mistake-by-charlie-munger/articleshow/95247954.cms Read #2.. I think the type of psychological bias is the same...I had a similar bias in 2000 and learned my lesson the hard way. The steadfast belief, a form of narrative fallacy bias, in the superior “Chinese system” that Munger kept alluding to in many of his talks probably blindsided him. Any autocratic system provides great results but only as long as the Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/3-investing-lessons-from-a-mistake-by-charlie-munger/articleshow/95247954.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst The steadfast belief, a form of narrative fallacy bias, in the superior “Chinese system” that Munger kept alluding to in many of his talks probably blindsided him. Any autocratic system provides great results but only as long as the Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/3-investing-lessons-from-a-mistake-by-charlie-munger/articleshow/95247954.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst The steadfast belief, a form of narrative fallacy bias, in the superior “Chinese system” that Munger kept alluding to in many of his talks probably blindsided him. Any autocratic system provides great results but only as long as the Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/3-investing-lessons-from-a-mistake-by-charlie-munger/articleshow/95247954.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

maybe mainly due to this ?

That is certainly correct as well as the same for the coming down of the Berlin Wall and collapse of the Soviet Union. ( watch Kleo on Netflix; its a great quirky show about this.) There was (and maybe still is) a sort of naive view of we can make money and promote freedom too. I might be naive also; (and no I'm not a progressive or woke) but I'm for the people ( GO Iranian women; Ukranians etc.) All these decisions you discuss are made by the elites and people in power of all countries, not by the general public. I DO get it and I'm sure like you, love, with all our faults, living in a flawed democratic society. I don't see the victim card with China being played; I see a readjustment on an initial assessment from Deng to Xi. It's why ,though I have some conservative leanings, will never vote for Trump or any of his acolytes.

https://www.brkenergy.com/assets/pdf/eei-presentations/2022-eei-presentation.pdf

https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/adaptive-reuse-apartments/

My favorite one 7) America works best when we work together on big projects.

https://thetimeproject.org/ Gentleman read every Time magazine from 1934 to 2000 and created a economic historical blog ( and synopsis)

Nice refresher: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1122817/12-lessons-on-money-and-more-from-warren-buffett-and-charlie-munger

I'm just amazed how quickly policy becomes institutionalized under a dictatorship

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-and-inflation all about rent trends

https://vaccineimpact.com/2022/western-journalist-publishes-rare-view-inside-a-china-covid-19-quarantine-camp/

https://www.redfin.com/news/november-layoff/ https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-cancellations-increased-5b3 Unfortunately, looks like the excess is coming off in the housing market. Should be good for rentals in excellent locations.

"Combs goes to Buffett’s house on many Saturdays to talk, and here’s a litmus test they frequently use. Warren asks “How many names in the S&P are going to be 15x earnings in the next 12 months? How many are going to earn more in five years (using a 90% confidence interval), and how many will compound at 7% (using a 50% confidence interval)?” In this exercise, you are solving for cyclicality, compounding, and initial price. Combs said that this rubric was used to find Apple, since at the time the same 3-5 names kept coming up. " I wonder if they used the same rubric for Chevron ?

https://investmentmanagementinsights.substack.com/p/graham-and-dodd-annual-breakfast Good synopsis featuring Todd Combs

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/biden-didn-t-fight-big-145650796.html Rolling Stone article..The Other Side

Kept watching it but never pulled the trigger .....Didnt know the board loaded up and I did not have the knowledge.....Also ,if I remember correctly Valueline had an avoid on it...I agree 100% about knowing what you own...Sometimes easier said than done ; such as BAC TARP warrants (thanks ericopoly) ....bought with little education and increased knowledge from there ( that took some effort )

Very similar ;Energy real estate ( thanks GMAL, thepupil and others for the education ) some consumer staples and healthcare; with an 18% brk which I added to in the $260's However mentally , especially on the continual downdrafts, sometimes I feel like the beaten stepchild... Have been investing since the late "70's, lost my ass in 2000 (have since made up for it .) I'm very impressed that folks on the board are fairly sanguine about the current situation.... For myself, its experience and increasing my knowledge that's helped psychologically. But I attribute this to old age and folks here seem pretty young... Are there any other factors that I'm missing? Or ,to use a baseball analogy, board members here are AAA or Major league level and I'm coming from a long time playing A ball ?

I also have a money professional buddy who trades around the FOMC using options but mainly leveraged etfs . ( timeframe is slight longer than 5 minutes Ha ha) Has made great calls and is up close to 40% this year. He's been bang on following and calling short term trends leading up to the meetings. Totally agree as well; the one benefit is that the volatility created by these people allows long term holders to buy at an attractive price.

And i just gotta say ,It's surrealistic listening to an energy podcast and filling up my tank at costco ....$2.94

Agree about the podcast ;Columbia energy exchange usually provides good info ( though I'm old ,deaf and have a difficult time with thick French accents haha)

I think his model works in a sliding scale depending on the price of O&G https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/columbia-energy-exchange/id1081481629?i=1000584701043 comprehensive look at Euro energy outlook over the next few years…. Looking forward to hearing VET’s outlook soon

Totally agree…. However I do like this presentation ( and watched it in several sections)…. Basically showed worldwide increased demand and flatline shrinking supplies in great detail….. emphasis on how the Permian is declining by going thru company by company..As I said he does have 15-45 minutes synopsis My issue, which I mentioned in a previous thread, is I sometimes feel like I’m in an echo chamber listening to Kuppy, doomberg odd lots white tundra Columbia energy exchange etc…all variations of the same theme… makes me wonder what I’m missing…. As far as VET….. I did not invest because of him and his very optimistic outlook …. I was looking for a 100000 producer with European exposure and listed on a us stock exchange…. As long as they are following a disciplined approach of creating a pristine balance sheet, return of capital to shareholders ,excellent reserves etc… I’ll hold…. Hopefully VET will turn into a company (on a much smaller basis)something similar to CTRA