Milu

Nope, which is why I continue to hold many of these stocks in a big way and believe that mag 7 will continue to grow ever larger over coming decade and all the fear about overspend and comments about correct depreciation rates are mostly pointless. I only posted the video to help some of the bears see things better.

Would encourage people who keep highlighting the depreciation estimates and whether 4 years, 5 years, 6 years is correct etc to listen to first 10 minutes of this. Pay particular attention to where they highlight how google is still running their 10 year old TPU chips at 100%, so if anything their could be a case that many of these companies are possibly still being conservative about the depreciation estimates.

Now that Microstategy is finally approaching mnav of 1 I might actually take the plunge and buy some, could never understand the logic behind the high mnav which is why I just stuck with bitcoin. Having the option of MSTR without the premium gives me some more bitcoin options in pension etc which doesn't have access to the US ETFs.

Possibly, although many people tend to 'see' bubbles all the time, but in reality there wasn't a bubble so they were seeing nothing, then every now and then stock prices do fall in a large way and the people who 'saw' the bubble in that year are proclaimed the geniuses. Based on your postings I assume you see a bubble now which may or may not be correct. I'd be interested to understand when you first started determining we are currently in a bubble and have you made any changes to your investment approach or positions based on this discovery? The best way to judge an accurate call with something like a bubble is what was the price of the asset (Bitcoin, S&P 500, Meta etc) when the person first start calling the bubble and what percentage below that price did the asset fall to when the bubble popped. For me personally I feel that some stocks are possibly richly priced and many more are good value. Maybe by historical standards we are moderately overvalued, but I typically don't believe I have the ability to make any accurate macro calls, nor do I make much change to my investments so I just hold good companies through the ups and downs, and ideally buy more after large drawdowns.

Not fully convinced, in 2008 he was digging through the 400 page prospectuses on various CDS tranches which was quite great sleuthing and he got rewarded for it. The correct depreciation life and growth vs maintenance cap ex for these hyperscalers is quite a well known issue that many investors are well aware of and are investing accordingly. I see a lot of comments lately as if this is some big gotcha discovery that none of the holders of MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META haven't already considered many times.

Burry seems to be obsessed with calling bubbles and crashes, having that big success in 2008 was a huge moment for him but he's been prognosticating on other bubbles 4 or 5 times since then, he'll end up being right at some point and I'm sure the incorrect calls will be forgotten about.

Interesting, if you don't require conviction when entering a position then why don't you just randomly select a stock to buy and then 'show me the money for Stock XYZ and Mr. Market'. Just trying to understand the approach.

Great video that everybody who is bearish on how big this can get should watch. Doesn't mean there won't be booms and busts along the way, but if you can just ride them up and down there is only one direction this is going to end up in 10 years.

Seems like this would be very hard to do and not very pleasant for stress levels. Let's imagine that Palantir was trading at 400 PE, and 100 time sales. That also seems insanely priced and if you had put on your short then, you have now watched the stock go up 50% from your initial short position. The same thing could happen if you put your short on now at 600 PE and then watch as it goes to 900 PE. Stocks have no issues in going from overvalued to insanely overvalued to super-duper insanely overvalued.

What is the minimum bagger we should use to make an owner rich, ten bagger?

Ireland working its way up to the big leagues

Chipotle. First new position of the year. Seeing some value now in some of the strong restaurant businesses. Might add a bit to my existing Domino's holding also. Still relatively small positions (about 2 to 2.5% each) for now but will add more on further weakness.

I really wish you did move like I suggested as these debates were frustrating enough back during covid not to mind rehashing all these datapoints again but as you can clearly see by your own graph you have helpfully posted above, excess deaths over the 2020-2022 three year period showed no noticeable difference between open sweden and its relatively closed off neighbours. The distribution over the three years was different with Sweden having higher excess mortality in 2020 and lower in 21 and 22, whereas others had lower in 2020 with increases in 21 and 22. In summary Sweden's less-restricted approach led to a high initial wave of excess mortality in 2020, while its more restricted neighbors shifted their excess mortality impact to 2021 and 2022, when overall cumulative excess mortality rates for the three-year period ended up being comparable or even higher (in the case of Finland) to Sweden's. Anyway, feel free to have the last word with any follow up posts, I'm gonna move back to the safer environments of the investment related threads, I've remembered why I try to avoid reading or posting in the politics thread.

Ya I mostly agree, it’s quite interesting that most of my Irish friends seem to pay more (negative) attention to the latest RFK comments rather than how our country is doing when it comes to vaccine uptake. Let’s get our own house in order before criticising Americans. However people are likely oblivious because it’s not something that comes up much in the general media and we don’t seem to have many negative repercussions (so far) from our lower than recommended vax rate. Perhaps a measles outbreak will get it back in the news.

Excess mortality rates over the 2020-2022 covid period, then presented per 100,000 so as to normalise between different population sizes is seen as one of the most accurate ways to compare between countries/states. Sweden was estimated to be around 115 per 100k, California and Norway, both of which instituted harsh lockdowns had equivalent or worse numbers over similar periods. In fact sweden had one of the lowest excess death rates in europe even though it was the country with the most open level of movement during the pandemic. I've no interest in opening up the covid can of worms though so let's move on rather than us getting into some back and forth quoting various studies like how people used to operate back in covid days.

Yet we seem to be living here without any political issues related to vaccines, outbreaks of various diseases related to unvaccinated people, or general panic that our country is going to hell due to a lack of vaccine mandate.

I've never heard of a requirement for vaccination to attend school here. I asked chatgpt and got this answer. "In Ireland, you do not have to be vaccinated to attend most schools. Here are the key points: The Health Service Executive (HSE) runs a free “School Immunisation Programme” offering various vaccines for children at primary and secondary-school age. HSE.ie+2HSE.ie+2 Vaccination is strongly recommended by the Department of Health and health-authorities, but it is not mandatory for school entry. Citizens Information+2IMJ+2 Schools may ask for immunisation records for inclusion in the school immunisation programme, but cannot legally refuse admission solely on the basis that a child is unvaccinated. " For clarity I am generally pro vaccine and myself, wife and kids, have the whatever the general ones you get when you are a baby. We don't bother getting flu vaccines each year but not because of any anti-vax stance etc. If I found out that some kids in my childs school weren't vaccinated I don't have much a problem with it, not sure how I'd ever find out anyway. In summary Vaccines Mandatory Vaccine

Has the vaccine rate been high in the USA historically and has only now dropped due to the current government, if so then you may have a point, if not then I don't think the argument works. Ireland also doesn't have any mandatory vaccines yet our vaccination rates are very good, I suspect this is the same for many other developed countries. For a country that is supposedly the land of the free there seems to be a lot of talk about dictating what people can and can't do. There was a lot of similar "we know what's best for you" mindset by certain political leaders during covid too (lockdowns, vaccine mandates etc) yet I don't think there was any statistically significant differences in the death rates in heavily restricted places like California vs unrestricted places like Sweden. We need to give people the freedom to make their own decisions, most people will make the rational decision, and a small proportion won't, just have to accept that. What would you like to do, pin these people down and jab a needle in their arm, banish them from society?

Yes it could very well be, but if the people inside Meta see the ability to deploy that cash flow into things with high returns wouldn't you prefer that they deployed it all rather than doing buybacks or paying back debt etc. For example if chipotle determine they can make a 400k year one cash return on a 2 million dollar cost of opening a restaurant wouldn't it be smart for them to invest as much free cash as they have the sufficient bandwidth to handle? I think many people in the value investing community seem to think not having any free cash flow for a year or two is some terrible thing whereas in reality if the company has ability to deploy cash into high return investments it is one of the best things. Obviously this all depends on the actual returns that we end up with, but just assuming zero or negative free cash flow is bad isn't the best way to assess things in my opinion.

Yes I've been hearing about how all this capex money is being wasted and how some of the smartest CEOs of our generation are just blindly following setting billions on fire like lemmings, yet so far returns on capital are holding steady if not increasing.

I would suspect that many of these companies revenues and earnings are up 10 to 20x over the last decade too, so not sure how much signal you can get from these charts.

The 'Age of Trump' as Bannon describes it.

I think the youtube link is only a snippet, the actual interview is 50 mins long. Either way, was interesting to watch. The whole populist nationalist movement that Bannon espouses is certainly gaining ground worldwide, Bloomberg has a interview with Farage a few days ago too. Similar philosophy to Bannon, perhaps less extreme.

This was a fascinating interview. Think it's behind a paywall though so you might need economist subscription. https://www.economist.com/insider/the-insider/inside-the-mind-of-maga-a-conversation-with-steve-bannon