Milu

Down about 13.5%year to date. And that’s with a decent amount of dry powder (almost 30% cash at the mo). Hopefully this downturn has a bit of legs so I’ll get a chance to deploy.

It’s pretty sweet alright.

Funny I just added to my existing LVMH position today at a similar price. About the same percentage of my net worth too. Would like to get it up about the 5% level should prices continue to drop.

I was thinking it would be down somewhere in the 5-10% range so a bit higher than I expected. While I think there was some brand damage I think the model y redesign and its rollout dates for q2 may have caused a lot of European buyers to hold off.

Anybody making predictions on Q1 deliveries for Tesla? ”Wall Street expects Tesla to have delivered about 373,000 vehicles in the January-March period, according to an average of 15 analysts' estimates from Visible Alpha that were refreshed in the past 30 days to reflect growing demand concerns. That would be a 3.6% drop from the same period a year ago, when it delivered 386,810 vehicles.” If deliveries are actually down less than 5% year over year considering all the firebombing, swastikas and other negative headlines perhaps things aren’t so bad at all.

Perhaps you are right. I still have the belief that all this noise about sales falling off a cliff or people boycotting Tesla will either have less impact that people think or be more short lived than people think. There is often a massive gap between what people think in the real world and what you read on Reddit/twitter. I remain convinced that for 95% of people world wide Elon Musks politics are not top of mind when they decide what car they are going to buy or not buy. Perhaps in countries like Canada or Germany there is a little tension but these are not large markets for Tesla. If zero Canadians buy one this year that less than 2% of total sales. maybe I’ll end up being completely wrong on this but let’s check back at end of year to see how far total car sales drop off from last years number of 1.8m.

I think the first photo is from a protest in London where it looks sunny. Then the second photo of the smiling lady on her bike is from Dublin.

Big turnout here today at the Tesla protest in Ireland. “But there was little sign of any disturbance in Sandyford on Saturday as two uniformed Garda officers sitting in patrol car down the street from the Tesla showroom, and a further two officers in an unmarked car at the other end of the street, almost outnumbered the protesters.” https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2025/03/29/just-six-people-turn-up-for-tesla-protest-in-dublin/

Agree with most of this. I sold all my Berkshire recently in a non-taxable account. Not sure how long warren has left and when he eventually passes I didn’t want to be left with a conglomerate run by managers who I don’t know that well. Buffett is a genius when it comes to investing but I can’t predict how well he will do with succession planning.

Sounds like a very pleasant group of holding you have, and that's amazing that you have continued holding your positions through many decades.

Just keep it at interactive brokers which pays a reasonable interest rate on cash. Or a t-bill ETF like BIL for some of my USD.

With meta at pe of 25, google at around 20. Which bubble stocks do you feel are at risk of collapse? As far as I’m aware most AI companies such as open ai, Anthropic etc are private companies.

Nice work and thanks for the elaboration. We are similar again on the portfolio activity front. I make minimal trades also, decent chance that I will have zero activity this year. I hold about 10 positions so a little more than you. I wouldn’t like to hold anymore than that as I’d find the portfolio too cluttered at that point. I’ve no idea how people can hold 20+ positions or make trades multiple times a month. I guess people are just wired differently. I’m generally buying with a 10+ year time horizon and my ideal scenario would be to just have all my capital deployed in 8-10 good positions and just put my feet up for the next decade or two. I have a large cash percentage 25% that I’d like to eventually get down to about 10% but nothing on my watchlist is priced attractively enough. I’d ideally like to get to the point where I just read the annual reports each year of the stocks on my watchlist and then just check in on the market every couple of weeks. I find it hard to stay away though as I’m alway interested in following latest market news, even though I’m taking very little action based on it.

Nice portfolio, I hold Dominos, Nintendo and google too so we have some overlap. I also have a few years of expenses in cash but I count it as a position in my portfolio. Curious how long you have been investing and how you have performed returns wise?

As a European I find the debate in this thread quite fascinating. Very heated opinions on both sides. I think it mainly boils down to the western world falling into the assumption that America would always be the great protector and because of this getting themselves into weaker and weaker positions. This is all now being exposed in both Europe and Canada, both of which have benefited massively in being ‘looked after’ by Uncle Sam. Even though I am happy for America’s help they are their own country and they don’t ‘owe’ any other country anything. They have the right to decide to focus on looking after their own citizens while pulling back on taking care of rest of world. This is even more true when they are running into more and more debt. I find it a quite entitled attitude that most of us Europeans and Canadian have to be honest. All of this will probably be good for the world in 5-10 years as countries start to stand in their own two feet and not blindly rely on a bigger brother.

Same for me, live in Europe also hw wallet. I’m curious how long self custody will be permitted and will EU ever try to clamp down and try to pressure people back into the system. Last time I sent bitcoin from the exchange to wallet I had to confirm I was the owner of the wallet so I assume there is some degree of monitoring going on by the regulators.

Do you live in Europe? Are you holding your BTC on a hardware wallet or via some other means?

Ya that’s a fair point, I’m not sure what the breakdown is of model 3 sales vs model y is so can’t quite confirm how much they are falling off the cliff. My personal feeling is that all this negativity will result in perhaps a 10% drop in sales this year so going from 1.8m to something over 1.6m vehicles sold. I’d start to worry about some serious brand impairment if it comes in below that. I think q1 could be quite weak though based upon on the negativity and the model y changeover but feel that there could be a better set of results in 2nd half of year.

As I’ve said previously I would encourage people to use a bit of sense when predicting the end for Tesla. In 2024 the company sold about 1.8m vehicles. They are currently transitioning the model y which is their largest selling vehicle and the worlds largest selling vehicle from its previous version to an updated model. This is being carried out from January to April/may and is occurring across multiple geographies, china in Jan/feb, US and Europe at the moment. It’s possible that some (but not all) of this drop in sales is down to this similar to if Apple was releasing a new version of the MacBook it’s likely they would experience a slowdown in sales of the existing model as people await the chance to buy the new iteration. So for the people predicting 50% drop in sales is your assessment that for calendar year 2025 Tesla total sales will go from 1.8m(2024 numbers) to around 900k, or if not what are you forecasting?

Not quite sure how Tesla, a company with a net $30b cash position gets ‘bankrupted’ exactly? People seem to forget that world is a very big place and while Elon is currently ruffling some feathers in Canada and Europe, in America due to its polarised political environment Tesla is likely gaining an equal amount of customers to ones he is losing, and in china I can’t imagine the typical consumer gives a single thought about Musk’s behaviour. I’d say there is likely some impact (5% or so) to overall global sales which obviously isn’t ideal but this just results in the company selling perhaps 1.9m vehicles this year instead of 2m.

I wouldn’t be so sure, Europe waited out trump for 4 years until 2020 and here they are waiting until 2028. And don’t be so sure the MAGA movement ends when trump leaves office. If the policies end up working Vance would be more than able to continue them for another 4-8 years. Either way Europe needs to toughen up. We are a block with an economy about 10 times the size of Russia and 4 times the population yet we are the ones who look intimidated.

Ethereum is building a financial platform, and it will be by far the most neutral platform that at the same time * allows to issue representations of financial assets * allows trading those assets * and permissionlessly create new financial products, such as derivative, based on them in existence. This is all very valuable activity. Capturing value from it is going to be possible, but it is not a priori obvious what the mechanisms are going to be. I still think it is some sort of fee mechanism -- in the rollup roadmap, I do continue to believe that the Ethereum L1 will be the crossroads between all those subdomains, and a lot of very valuable activity will continue to take place on it and that will generate valuable fees. (A decent amount of L1 scaling will be necessary for this to happen) If this turns out not to be the best value accrual mechanism, then there are interesting alternatives that I consider with an increasing degree of skepticism, but none of them are impossible: Value accrual through data availability fees, as the main medium of exchange asset in the ecosystem, and finally by being used as collateral (which is the riskiest). "The EF" does not have an opinion on this, as researchers we all form our own opinions. Personally I believe it is best if we focus on building a value-generating ecosystem on Ethereum, and I think that value capture will ultimately come naturally. This doesn't mean I don't think about it, but it is a great mistake to focus on it while the value generation part is still coming short. Again, I don't speak for the EF, but I have an individual opinion as a researcher. When I build a startup, of course I would like to make money, but I would still consider it as a success if it was useful to my customers and I ultimately went away empty-handed. Translating this to Ethereum, I do think that if we had a diverse ecosystem of rollups providing the world with interesting applications, I would consider this a success, but an even greater success would be if this ecosystem also made ETH the asset more valuable. I know that many believe that the rollup-centric roadmap will take away fee revenue and MEV from Ethereum and rollups might ultimately be parasitic. I think that's not true. I think that it will continue to be true that the highest-value transactions will happen on Ethereum L1, while rollups will grow the pie by providing plenty of space for users to transact on Ethereum. The relationship will be symbiotic: Ethereum provides rollups with cheap data availability (I think it should be cheap, Ethereum security should be affordable for everyone) and in return they make Ethereum L1 the natural crossroads for all financial activity for the really valuable transactions. Source: Not sure if you have discussed on this forum yet but I'm curious what your portfolio looks like. Based on your post history you look to be a big proponent of Ethereum. Does this make up the largest part of your networth, do you hold bitcoin and other cryptoassets, stocks, gold? It's a lot easier to get a sense of a person's posts once I have an idea where they put their money?

Ya maybe you will be right but let’s wait for the facts to play out. There is a lot of noise ( various anecdotes and media stories) about how Tesla is doomed and not much signal (actual reported numbers on a quarterly and annual basis).

Thankfully we have a very easy way to check how it will work out as tesla report deliveries every month. I think the current forecast is for 2m vehicle deliveries in 2025 so let's check back at end of year to see how well or badly things worked out.

Yes it's a bit strange alright, I don't recall much discussion or judgement about the personal lives of all the other CEO's discussed on this Investment forum. I'm sure Buffett, Munger, Bezos, etc all have various stories or rumours about them but I don't see how that warrants any discussion or relevance to the merits of their companies as potential stock investments.