Kizion
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Everything posted by Kizion
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Terafab [www.terafab.ai], Elon Musk, Tesla, X.ai & SpaceX
Kizion replied to John Hjorth's topic in General Discussion
But sharing your resume is via e-mail template -
I believe it would be in EU interest to go out and try to open the strait. I don't have an opinion on the war, but would love to see that EU leaders finally would start acting in our best interest. I'm also aligned with our prime minister, Bart De Wever, that we should try to reach a deal with Russia. Just do the smart thing, instead of the (political) correct one. We need cheap energy to be able to compete vs. rest of the world - not a favourable position, but it's gravity so better find a way to cope with it.
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PROX (after sell-off) and Solvay
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He's not Dutch; he's Belgian—but he speaks Dutch
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What is the rational to buy the rights offering iso common shares?
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I get completely different valuation ratios via TIKR. However ROE, cash balance (50% of equity), 4% dividend yield, and 10Y revenue CAGR seem a nice combo, that in combination with my idea that motorcycles will remain popular in future and new use cases like e-bike, e-steps, etc will require helmets. - I added it to my Japanse basket. Looking to sales you see that they are dropping from their peak with YoY decline of 15% in EU & China and 30% in Japan (excess supply), while increasing in North America. Currency risk also for their revenues. Nevertheless I still reach a fair ROE after accounting for normalized earning (so far possible) and considering they will distribute their excessive cash in future.
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Owning home and asset allocation/portfolio management
Kizion replied to Milu's topic in General Discussion
No taxes in BE for gains on a house. But you definitely right, I neglected the appreciation, I myself don't count on 4% gain on RE but still would result in difference of 350kEUR. -
Owning home and asset allocation/portfolio management
Kizion replied to Milu's topic in General Discussion
I should be more grateful that my partner in crime is happy with a less expensive house. I've colleagues that are buying houses that are multiple 100kEURs more expensive than ours, while I cannot understand their monthly repayment could be significantly higher than ours. Meaning that they put up themselves these additional 100kEURs when they are around 35. Opportunity cost is huge. Recent example was 350kEUR more expensive vs. our house (70% more expensive vs. our house) - if you would invest this for 20 years at 6%, you could buy this expensive house for "free" -
Owning home and asset allocation/portfolio management
Kizion replied to Milu's topic in General Discussion
I also ignore it currently, only consider it in my net worth calculation that I use to simulate retirement age etc. But I look at it as hedge vs. inflation and economic slowdown. Current interest rate is 3%, however in past we've seen below 1% when global interest rates were at its lowest, so when this would happen again, I will refinance. Living in Belgium for context. vs. inflation as our salaries are automatically indexed, while mortgage payments remain fixed. vs. slowdown as there is the possibility of refinancing to a lower rate at current bank or other one. I also tried to max out the amount I could take in mortgage as it's very cheap money. -
Bought physical copy of the book on Amazon.co.uk (living in Belgium) last week, but decided yesterday to purchase a Kindle (hate struggling with a book in bed, no lights required to read, etc). The physical copy was delivered today and wanted to return it so I could buy it on Kindle instead. When trying to return it I get following message: "We are processing your refund. You don't need to return the item back to us!" Well that's nice!
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Just got this email. I don't like to spend too much energy being frustrated with all the over regulation, but just received above mail from someone within my company. My number is at the closing of all my mails, in our who-is-who and in my Outlook contact card. If I need to give my permission for each occasion that my number can be used, damn.
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It's what @Gregmal also said couple of months ago that could happen in US with some US mega caps (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, ...)
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Just curious, how much % of your stake can you actually sell during these tenders? (assuming it's limited/oversubscribed and that you are a seller). Probably somewhere posted here, but how did you obtain these shares? Thank you!
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Thank you for the information, very helpful to start!
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Do you mind if I would ask you for an elevator pitch on SBI? What is your main reason to buy? (I don't know the company at all, but it would give me a starting point for further investigation )
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Balls deep in NVO - overcompensating other investment calls I made earliers this year where I didn't went bold enough. Hopefully I don't regret this one, but I don't see how it could.
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Some WEN
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Could it have been Musk’s plan from the start to present himself as an ally to the public and build credibility with the MAGA crowd, just so he’d have the ability to turn against Trump later on? A direct attack wouldn’t have stood a chance, so this approach puts the odds more in his favor.
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What would be the alternative for central banks? What are they owning today (US Treasuries?)? Could (are they allowed to / is it common that) they buy other assets such as oil, land or stocks? Because if they cannot buy these latter (productive/utility) assets, than they buying gold is maybe just "the best of the worst".
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We're going off-topic here, so sorry for that. I don't believe in BTC neither - for me it's, just as gold, an unproductive asset. I guess both value of gold & BTC (if it remains relevant) will increase over time thanks to increase of money supply. But they remain unproductive asset, and therefore I guess the return will be lower vs. productive assets (unless valuation of productive assets today is significantly overvalued and valuation of gold/BTC is signficantly undervalued - however I can only value productive assets and not unproductive ones).
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"If you own an ounce of gold now and you caress it for the next hundred years, you'll have an ounce of gold 100 years from now. If you own 100 acres of farmland, you'll also have 100 acres of farmland 100 years from now, and you'll have taken the crops for 100 years and sold them and presumably bought more farmland with the proceeds. It is very hard for an unproductive investment to beat productive investments over any long period of time." "We would much prefer some asset that is going to be useful whether the currency is worth what it is today or 10% of what it is today... We would not trade the ownership of those kinds of assets for a hunk of the yellow metal which has very little real utility" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETzvS2g8LC4 I'm just not smart enough to be critical on those arguments.
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Around 140 but could even be lower. I don't short the general market but individual stocks which I assess as not being fairly valued. So the logic I apply is exactly the same as for my long positions. Currently I short Apple and went long for same amount on GOOGL. I just exchange stocks. So I'm fine if Apple is still performing well. But I need Google to outperform Apple. My assessment that Apple is overvalued and Google is undervalued provides me comfort that Google will outperform in next 12-18 months. It will maybe sound ridiculous, and this is still a test case for me personally, however I see myself a bit as a company. Where a company can play around with its shares (buying when low, issuing when high), I try to sell overvalued companies and buy undervalued ones. Everything comes down to valuations skills (this part is still under internal validation) and a rational market. Both the skills and the market are the same long vs. short. So I don't understand the reluctance of shorting. And just to be clear, I think Apple has fantastic products and ecosystem (I recently switched to Android phone, just to try, and even though I'm impressed with the phone itself, I have to admit that Apple experience is something different). I don't expect Apple to fail ever in the future, I see them still being relevant in a couple of decades. However at current valuation I really wonder what's the upside potential. Will they be able to outperform the market in the next decade from current valuation? In my opinion not, so I sell them and buy a business that I expect can outperform the market. But I'm still young and maybe a lot of people here, with much more experience, will consider this a dumb and not working. I will try to find out in next semesters
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If it goes up significantly, I will increase short position. Even current valuation is ridiculous. A 10% growth and no margin deterioration is priced in, while they barely had any growth in past years. Chinese competition increasing, so I don’t see how growth would suddenly start improving again. I also see more and more promo’s on MacBooks combined with general price decreases. Then you have the IPhone SE which will take sales from higher end versions.
