Luke

Because that was probably one of the biggest humiliations for China, maybe still is and that they learned incredibly much since then, have world-class scientist and universities, people in the administration that have advanced economics degrees etc. They wont go back.

A fully planned economy doesnt work obviously. They are not returning to it though and I think the regulations they are passing and planning to pass will improve Chinas trajectory as a whole.

Dont dare me!

And thats where we disagree. In my opinion we dont live under capitalism, we have STATE capitalism eveywhere, also in the US and also in China, with differing strenght of intervention. Pure capitalism would self implode and will never work, unregulated markets will self implode.

Thanks a lot for sharing, i will let you know!! :))

Complete state planning doesnt work obviously, we also dont have that right now. But a government that interferes with the markets was a key to success for china.

Earlier this year, for example, the Ministry of Education announced a plan to “cultivate masculinity” in schoolboys, requiring schools to increase the number of gym teachers and promote more sports. The initiatives are as much about health as they are about culture.

This should make our republican americans happy and positive about china: This year, the regulators are also ramping up restrictions on vulgarity and gender-fluid content for children. Video platforms have also been ordered to scrub content with effeminate men or “other abnormal aesthetics.” Enforcement of heteronormativity is also on the rise. In July, WeChat permanently banned nearly all public accounts created and run by LGBTQ groups at Chinese colleges for no specific reason. In November, LGBT Rights Advocacy China, an influential nonprofit organization, announced it was “suspending all operations” for an indefinite period of time. Bilibili — one of the few pockets of gay content online — has lately begun censoring itself.

And some interesting cultural crackdown happening in china too: https://thechinaproject.com/2021/05/10/iqiyi-cancels-season-finale-over-milk/ The talent show encouraged viewers to buy a sponsor’s milk and scan the QR code inside the bottle caps to support their favorite stars. Obsessed fans brought up milk in bulk but dumped the milk into drains. Some calculated that 270,000 bottles of dairy products were poured directly into the sewage. Since then, regulators banned “idol development programs” altogether. In August, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), China’s internet watchdog, announced a ban on celebrity rankings. It followed the removal of 150,000 pieces of “harmful online content” involving fan groups, and 4,000 fan accounts, according to a Xinhua report. For stage actors, a new wave of behavioral guidelines was rolled out in February to ensure actors and actresses “love the motherland,” “abide by social morality,” and “uphold the prestige of Chinese culture,” among others. Misbehaving superstars such as the actress Zhào Wēi 赵薇 and Zhèng Shuǎng 郑爽and the singer-actor Kris Wu (Wú Yìfán 吴亦凡) have had their social media accounts shut down or investigated. The preeminent video streamer and influencer Lǐ Zǐqī 李子柒 , an emblem of Chinese bucolic and simplistic living recently appeared on CCTV after disappearing for three months to parrot the official rhetoric of the party, which includes such buzzwords as “rural revitalization,” “common prosperity” and “guiding youths…away from becoming influencers.” Beijing has fundamentally altered the kinds of content Chinese youths can consume this year. In September, Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, imposed a forty-minute time limit on video consumption for children under 14. Young viewers can now only view “prepared” content such as historical information, science experiments, and patriotic clips.

I sold Micron at slight gain and added proceeds to Nintendo. I am trusting that Li Lu has a better understanding than me of micron and that the situation with China is not favorable for the DRAM market.

From a monetary policy perspective, a global cryptocurrency area is unlikely to be an optimal currency area, as this would lead to an inability to adjust exchange rates within the ‘area’. The result would thus be a crypto-monetary policy (ie its supply protocol) that would be consistently too tight and too accommodative for different countries at different times. Other major risks that could undermine trust in cryptocurrencies could arise from market concentration (which could lead to the falsification of the ledger and to ‘double spend’ issues), from the manipulation of the value of the currency via insider trading and from the reliance on unregulated intermediaries necessary to use cryptocurrencies. For what its worth, some thoughts regarding crypto. Its a very complex topic. PC-10_2018_2.pdf

There are very stable currencies like the swiss frank, they also have a decent government. Then we have zimbabwe with 65% annual inflation for more than a decade. So there we have one factor made clear: Smart state. @Dave86ch How will this function with bitcoin globally if humanity continues to grow. Lets say we will have 20b people population by 2060, we made Mars habitable too. Now the currency couldnt grow with the population, how does that play out with bitcoin? Our analysis shows that the volume of transactions carried out using cryptocurrencies is still insignificant compared to those carried out using official currencies. This implies that, at least for the moment, cryptocurrencies are not real contenders to replace official currencies. However, cryptocurrencies do have interesting characteristics that make them attractive in ways other currencies are not. They are truly global in nature and easily accessible to potential users. The US dollar and possibly the euro are global currencies, but might not always be as readily available (for instance, if a government wants to restrict their use in its jurisdiction). Also, the fact that they are not backed by a government protects them from political influence and the threat of manipulation. Our second issue is how cryptocurrencies might alter the nature of monetary policy and its application. The management of traditional money by monetary policy authorities (ie central banks) is partly automatic (or at least rules-based) and partly discretionary. A cryptocurrency’s protocol is operated by a predefined algorithm, making its management fully automatic. It is currently difficult to imagine how algorithms could be fully effective in dealing with complex decisions in an uncertain world. More importantly however, the lack of a real person behind the automatic decision-making implies that such algorithms could not be held to account. This is an important shortcoming because the value of a currency is a crucial component of a society’s ability to prosper and therefore decision making in relation to that currency is a power that should be carefully monitored. Monetary policymakers who are granted that power are part of the package of national policies that are subject to monitoring and review. Monetary policymakers can ultimately be dismissed if deemed necessary

That is true, a government has the ability to ruin the currency. But with bitcoin or crypto there is also no control. I think the government control is still preferable but maybe @Dave86ch can prove me wrong.

I can and do look past it, give it a try!

He literally said betting against is a good idea. Nobody forces you to invest into china and into the "communists" haha!

The picture doesnt look that bad if you factor in that the multiples and valuation in china are very low at the moment.

Which policies? Which specific policies? Can you please share links/data and be specific?

If you only look at china through one specific lens, people will see what they want to see.

There was so much money made in china since their industrial revolution started, this is just not true man!

That the state played a big role in the Chinese economy was obvious since so long. The tech crackdown was very valid: There were many problems with the Ant IPO: 1. Ant labels itself as a Fintech Player but functioned similarly to a bank, it did not have the regulatory requirements that banks needed to have which was reason enough to stop the IPO. 2. It was insufficiently capitalized and could have had systemic risks 3. Credit scoring had an opaque algorithm which was unverified which is another systemic risk problem. On top Jack Ma did his complains about how stupid these regulations where etc what not. That guy has too big of a mouth. Crack techdown timelines: 1. Antitrust probes: Fines for Baba, Meituan, Didi, Baidu, JD, Tencent etc because of: Failing to disclose mergers, signing exclusive contracts,misleading marketing tactics and merger irregularities. This didnt happen in the US yet, most people dont even bother because they dont think the US will do something about it but we will see. 2. Data Security: Didi IPO suspension etc, worrying about data being leaked to foreigners. 3. Disorderly capital expension, Growth at the expense of public interest: Wow! I have never even heard this in the US! Nobody cares! I posted how bad the US grades in Mathematics are for students, maybe there needs to be a crackdown on these media giants that teenagers watch endlessly. Maybe crackdown at the fast food industry in the US too! Paying a kidney to get medicine necessary for daily life? US healthcare gladly takes your money! ------- There were many good regulations: https://www.reuters.com/business/china-market-regulator-boosts-food-delivery-worker-protections-2021-07-26/ 1. Improving living conditions of delivery drivers, more pay, forcing insurance and relaxation of delivery deadlines etc https://www.reuters.com/technology/jdcom-cut-senior-executives-salaries-by-10-20-2022-11-22/ 2. Senior managers cutting salaries so that employees in total have improved benefits, wow! Maybe its time management in the US takes a paycut too so that the average worker might buy himself something nice too, managers salaries grew by 1460%! https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-in-2021/ Chinese President Xi Jinping last year launched a renewed drive for "common prosperity", as an effort to reduce income inequality that threatens long-term economic growth and even the legitimacy of Communist Party rule. All of this is a net win for china. That Xi will make the third term is new but i dont think this will meaningfully change chinas trajectory. Because there was a global pandemic, full lockdowns and then running into 5% interest rates.

Then you would have had to bet against China 20 years ago and that would have led you to a 100% loss! Central planning was key to Chinas success.

The country did a 180 from back then, why continue to blame todays government for things almost 70 years ago. What is the new direction? Where are they heading? I dont see different goals for china compared to 5 years ago. The geopolitical mood changed and Xi has a tighter grip over the country. What fundamentally changed with China that was not obvious 3 years ago when Alibaba made ATHs?

Exactly, theoretically the government could save up bitcoins to give out to the ones affected, or borrow them from another country but It's hard for me to see how 0 government control is beneficial.

For the danish folks here, @John Hjorth, I will travel with the GF to Copenhagen for the weekend, anything worth doing and not worth doing, we thought of visiting Rosenborg Castle, statens museum? What do you recommend:))

Making todays members of the chinese government responsible for the deaths back then is the same as making the current german government guilty for starting WW2 and killing jews. Doesnt make any sense at all!