Eng12345

I mean doesn't that only imply a ~3% growth rate given a 10% hurdle rate? They're far exceeding that. The general sentiment that the market may never rerate ADBE to 20-25X though is the real risk. The risk of them becoming a fading business is a real risk as well but may not show up in earnings immediately until it is too late.

I’ll digress from here but appreciate the thoughts and hope it works out for you guys. The nice thing about the market is it isn’t zero sum.

No I'm happy to hear on why CNC is underearning compared to it's valuation. I agree from here it is an earnings story. At $44 and a 15X multiple (which I would ascribe as on the higher end) EPS would have to be roughly $3/share. Which is probably a bit above where they are earning now. Good chance rate increases will be offset by membership declines and continuous cost inflation/taking as well. But again I'm curious why you guys are so certain they are underearning. I get that we had an across the book increase of say ~20%. But how the 20% actually distills into earnings I'm unsure of over the next year. This was a rather large position for me (accidentally) but I took profits quite a bit on gut feel. Hell, I'm sure I'm wrong but want to hear the reasons before I see my loss and your gain in a few years. Watch next week as subsidies get reinstated lmao.

Meh its a less than good business that will have political headwinds for at least the next decade. Prior to passage of the rollbacks it was trading at $55 and is now at $45. It was a nice swing trade sardine on the overreaction to the bill but beyond that meh. I'm not sure how you can say they are vastly under earning. I guess on the thesis that enrollment is the roughly the same with increased premiums? They also lost the Florida contract. That's going to clip revenue for a good 1.5% beginning in Q4. (though I don't think that's really /that/ material) Happy to hear your thoughts either here or on the CNC thread.

Sold out of CNC today. There are still so many unanswered questions in the industry and with the valuation within 20% of where they were pre healthcare roll back I don't much care for the industry going forward. Looks like a total of 30% gain across accounts. Though I certainly got overly excited on the trigger and began buying much too soon in early July right before it fell off the cliff. I have no explanation in hindsight for that other than itchy trigger fingers. Certainly, a good lesson for me in behavioral. Just glad to have gotten out of this one having made some money.

I agree in many ways, but what I haven't figured out is how to think of the different companies (CSU, TOI, LUMIN) differently. They seem essentially similar/same with different end markets to me.

Yeah I started a position in TOI, CSU and Lumine the other day. Wasn’t sure how to pick the best Seems like a good time to buy some good companies

I think constellation consortium will do well. CSU, TOI, LUMN are probably my best ideas right now. MGM I'm hopeful on but would rather they just keep buying back shares and let '27 explode. And I'm not sure I need to re emphasize my conviction on AECON (ARE.TO)

Looks like I'm right at 24.5% YTD on TWR. Not happy with it. Had a few serious money losing trades that were more behavioral than anything. If I back those out I'm closer to 35% I would think.

@Xerxes did you enjoy The Commanding Heights ? I saw that one but wasn't terribly appealed to it. I am learning to be unforgiving with my reading time otherwise I get nowhere. I certainly enjoy Yergin's style, but it is dense in minutia at times.

Yeah I don't know. I think it's important to have historical frameworks for various industries. These experiences shape the way the current leaders of industries operate. So in that sense, it is certainly helpful. History rhymes after all. But as far as valuing businesses? Meh. You're gonna have to crack the 10K. And if you're asking my opinion on oil? Hell, I don't know. I have limited shares in strathcona (I sold the cost basis on the fall pop) and some VG (which is obv a LNG play and has a good chance of being a 0).

Found this book by trawling through the forum and got it on Amazon for $6. Phenomenal $6 spent. I'm about halfway through it. Thought I'd bump the post. Also curious if anyone has read the sequels by Yergin? The Prize seemingly stops somewhere in the mid '80s or so. The Quest seems to pick up around there and go to the mid 00s The New Map seems to cover the shale revolution to the early 10's when it was published Not sure if any of the sequels are worth the read...

I think it has merit and I'm always pro additional disclosure. However, I'm not sure how much it will really move the needle.

Did anyone notice that they launched a podcast lmao? Podcast - Fairfax India

Are you just speaking on the nature of selling uncovered puts? Just curious because I've been contemplating starting to sell cash covered puts on some stocks that I want to own more of with my sometimes larger than needed cash pile. As a general rule I try to stay away from options as I have found them to be my own personal version of a money incinerator. But I'm fairly unsophisticated.

Merry Christmas all! Very thankful for all on this board! My knowledge gained over the past few years has been phenomenal.

I always find this a good exercise and ultimately end up trimming quite an amount of fat over it. Here's what my port looks like now, but I expect significant changes beginning as soon as Monday. I really disparage some of these small positions and find it quite pointless. And further hate my health insurance stocks nearly as much. Some positions (CPNG, MGM) I thought were much larger in size than they actually end up being on a percentage basis.

I've been listening to a lot of pods lately here's a few episodes I found particularly interesting

No doubt a lot of people will lose money. Like you - I don't think it's right time to drop into the oil stonks yet. But the idea that the world is going to maintain a 4 mm bpd surplus is hilarious.

I mean if you believe the bs 3.8 mm bpd surplus number for 2026 I have a bridge to sell you. Prices would be so low, if not negative. The world doesn't have enough storage to sustain a surplus number of that sort for any real time. OPEC seems to disagree as well.

These sports teams are outrageous. If the counties would stand in unity, they wouldn't be able to play one another like a fiddle. Same story with the Hunt family trying to play KCMO vs KCKS. Let them go to Venezuela who cares. It's not the taxpayer's job to pay for infrastructure for these guys' megaprojects.

My conspiracy theory is that the green movement has always been an Eastern world influence/propaganda campaign. I'm pretty left leaning on all things with the exception of this/energy.

I've been thinking along the same lines, though I'm not sure Canadian natural gas is the best way to play it. It's truly staggering the amount of LNG capacity being built off on the US gulf coast. As @SharperDingaan notes pricing is very localized for natural gas. I'm pretty uninformed on the nat gas pricing dynamics, but I'm of the understanding that once the LNG capacity is built out because of the large supply base it won't necessarily result in higher Permian prices either. So permian producers don't seem like an obvious play. I am an owner of some of the LNG builders (though small positions VG and NEXT) but not because I expect higher LNG spot prices (I expect lower) rather I think the market over estimates the risk in building these facilities with proven contractors and doesn't credit the forward cash flows enough. Perhaps LNG tanker operators is the obvious play, but I doubt that's easy money as it seems the fleet is already scheduled to double to match the supply. What I do know is this - Serious trouble for coal producers. After all it wasn't environmental regulations that "killed coal" rather the prevalence of cheap natural gas.

EEFT, MATR, VG, FFXDF