alertmeipp

The sentiment on oil and gas stocks is like day and night compare to few short months ago. How many of you still have significant weighting in this sector? I added quite a few names last couple weeks and it is no fun. Do you guys see this as seasonal or bigger thing is happening

Cardboard, Are you doing anything in the O&G, adding to PWT,etc?? Are you still bullish? Both PWT and LTS are negative YTD given what they have accomplished this year so far.

Great. I am not alone. Why do u add to sgl but not lts?

What percentage do you guys's allocation to Canadian O&G sector?

Both MEI and LTS have dropped ~40% from it's 52 week high. I would add if I am not already over allocated to this. The "we have more oil than we need" news cycle are scary. Things like below do not get much mentioned: FACTBOX-Oil prices below most OPEC producers' budget needs http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/opec-budget-idINL5N0R91DE20140908 Oil prices needed to meet expenditure ($/bbl) OPEC Country 2012 2013 Algeria 121 119 Angola 81 94 Ecuador 112 122 Iran 123 136 Iraq 100 116 Kuwait 61 59 Libya 94 111 Nigeria 118 124 Qatar 59 58 Saudi Arabia 87 92 UAE 82 90 Venezuela 102 117 Marginal cost of producing one new barrel of oil Regions Dollars per barrel ($/bbl) Arctic 115-122 Brazil Ethanol 63-69 Central and South America 29-35 Deepwater Offshore 54-60 EU Biodiesel 106-113 EU Ethanol 98-105 Middle East Onshore 10-17 North Sea 46-53 Oil Sands 89-96 Former Soviet Union Onshore 18-25 Russia Onshore 15-21 US Ethanol 80-87 US Shale Oil 70-77 WAF Offshore 38-44

It is not lts specific I sold all during the run up and start buying back since 7... not pretty. This sector is just being hated at the moment. Mei looks interesting too but i am already very heavy in this sector.

But mei missed not because of the new field .

BXE. I really like it. Cheap with nice growth starting next year. The bought deal was a joke and probably pissed quite a few people. Nice news on LTS. I was hoping for a bit more. But nice to get it done, some news media says those lands that got from CPG worth 50millions?

alertmeipp - don't get me wrong. I am long MEI too and was quite optimistic till the recent quarter update. Even after the downgrade the company could grow average boe by 20% which is good What has me concerned is that the management was publishing the higher numbers every till august, whereas they would have been aware of the early shut ins. If they are going to give monthly updates and can see the hit coming, why wait till the quarter end ? why not let the market know this and reduce the expectations also on the cc, they mentioned that this started happening roughly after june and they should have it resolved by sept/ oct. in addition, there is issue of shutin to maintain reservoir pressure. I am not an engineer to understand enough on this , but this look worrying ? does this mean that the initial well estimates were too optimistic or the engineering was done poorly and this shutin is happening to fix that ? No worries. Yeah, they probably should. All I am saying is that's not something unique. SD, LTS did the same. PWE did to the upside.

Come on. This isn't new. Many companies update guidances with quarter releases.

It's not hard to see various real estate bubbles and subsequent bursts afterward. They do happen and it will go to downside as irrationally as they do to the upside.

The call is actually available on the corp site.

4x after the revised guidance. Not expensive but not as cheap as it used to be. I missed their call and seems there is no replay. Anyone know how the issues will fix itself over time? Debt is up, dont think it can do 100m capex next year. Entice is mixed bag so far. The only thing positive is they can now buy back more shares. 7k average was never priced in.

As an investment, buying a house makes no sense given the cap rate and income to price ratio unless you think the price is going to go up. But having a house gives some people peace of mind and sense of pride which is cool too.

clearly, I hear many jump in now because they believe the price is only going to go up. I haven't seen mid inome ppl buying more than one in presales event, their thinking is price can only go up. We only need a slight price drop to make ppl worry.

MEI just released some lousy numbers due to facilities issues. Wont be good tomorrow. Funds flow cut by 30 percent.

It didn't stay flat in the late eighties. House prices were cut in half in the toronto area. Housing bubbles always end badly. Won't be any different this time either. The higher it goes up, the harder it will fall. Check out what happen to RE when the main buyers are foreigners. That's not a positive in longer term.

This would go on longer but we all know this won't end well, and the pendulum will swing back. Remember how US bubble get busted, is it because of rising interest rate?

I think it's from AltaCorp Capital, Alberta top wells.

What a steep sell off, I pretty much rebuilt my lts holding today. 8 percent yield. Oil price is a big concern for me obviously.

Yes, that was a rip off. If the investigation is really related to fbk, hope we can get compensated some how. 8)

PWT still needs to sell about 1 billion of assets and LTS probably around 400m to get their debt in line with others. After that, it will be all execution and commodities price. On execution front, PWT seems already becoming the best in its class. LTS is right to call off Swan Hills for now, why waste capex if you don't know what is going on, I hope those wells will be put back on the capex shortly.

Manitok has couple top producing wells in June in an Alberta publication. No link. Found that interesting as usually these type of wells don't come from company that trade at low multiple. Not sure if anyone was listening to lightstream call, but many push for a buyback. Will be interesting. I think they may if they get a good bid on its 4.5k 90 percent oil asset

well, the market never take it easy on lowering of guidance especially during the time when the sector is so weak. LTS down 8%. The funds flow is the same because of the higher commodities pricing and lower capex. Ugly last couple months, hope you guys did take some profits off before the correction.

Not a nice last few weeks on this sector, lots of gain wiped out. I got back in LTS.TO and PWT.TO, nice that they got a few deals done while the sector is hot. Added to MEI as well, seems on track for 7500 exit, that alone worth the current market cap is not more. The pricing deck is still robust for Canadian producers. Are you guys still ride this trend? Keystone and LNG are two remote but nice potential positives for this sector..