alertmeipp

You don't need to wait for spring summer time. House prices already up at least 15 20 percent in some suburb areas yoy. Scarborough Inside Toronto, even way over built condos have caused bidding war. The new finance minister and bank governer so far is saying soft landing. Ie. Wait and pray.

I think the main reason ppl are buying house is there is a general belief that house price will continue to go up if u don't act now. It's like a chicken and egg thing.

Nuts. But unless gov does something, hard to see this stop.

Say if I l am renting my place for 2.5k, if I buy it will cost me 1m And I need to pay 8k annually for taxes, maybe 4k for maintenance. So spend 1m saves me 20k... So it does not make sense to buy unless u are betting on house price to go up fast. Of coz, I do realize house is not pure investment.

Gary, The areas I witness the steepest raise in RE generally have high ratio of ppl from mainland China. It's not uncommon to see a huge house in Toronto and Vancouver either being empty most of the time or just have the mom and son live there. I don't even think thry care about the forex rate. They just want to get the money out in case something bad happen back home. Canada is a much smaller market than US. so the impact will be way more visible.

Liberty, I used to think exactly like you. In Toronto, Rent ratio is properly 30 40x. 1m house rent for 2.5k. Income ratio is over 7x. And I am talking about become tax income... Very high ratios no matter how u cut in. But i still see multiple ppl bidding on the offer night. Heard stories about guys out bidding pretty himself just to get in. U check out the houses in Scarborough. They don't even look as nice as those in Phoneix. But if this bubble continues on for few more years, why not jump in and take advantage of it. Only if I know the future. .

Timing is hard, for sure, but value remains value. I'm sure people thought tech stocks were overvalued in 1997... Didn't make them fairly valued in 1999 because there hadn't been a crash yet. The problem is I think for the foreigners, houses are cheap here. A million for them is cheap to have an address in Canada. Places like Scarborough, a smallish house asks for 500k can be sold for 700k. And the same house maybe worth mid 40 couple years ago. Not sustainable if all buyers are local and need employment income to sustain mortgage. But we are talking about ppl who does not mortgage

Yes. It probably will take a 30 percent plus correction just to bring the price back to 3 yrs ago in some area. We have quite a bit of institutions saying it is overpriced by 20 30 percents since few years ago. Mind blowing thing

>>It is always darkest before dawn. I just don't know what will slow it down unless tmw China said no more capital flight. But chance of it is zero.

so how many of you do not own a house and are renting in the Toronto and Vancouver area? The house market is just red hot in these two places (other cities like Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa have been slowing down already). In Toronto, almost nobody thinks this rise is going to stop anytime soon. House are selling with multiple competing offers even in the suburb area, 15% over asking is becoming a norm. Is it a good time to keep renting? Or just jump in the band wagon as the foreigner money and cheap rate will be around for quite a while? I am renting and feel pretty confused.

Are u guys so sure sd will hit zero. It is smallish position for them. Why the fuss.

like in banking, many big M&A is more or less fueled by gov incentives or forces. Real M&A picks up when market on its way back?

Actually, why are u surprised? Can you name one or two sectors that M&A heats up when the sector fundamental is as crappy as oil now?

ni-co, are u agreeing with the article? or just post it? rockket, which companies u see if pricing in 80 oil? the Majors?

yes, I didn't buy a house and get crashed by using into oily stocks.

The house I was looking is up 15 percent last year. Suburb in Gta. It is not a cheap house. Tough here.

It's just harder to move around when you have kids, neighborhood, school, etc...

Sorry, I mean renting a place rather than owning it. The price is high, but hard not to buy one when you have kids... is it not?

Anyone here live in Toronto/Vancouver/Calgary, with kids but do not own a house?

Not relevant at all. That is a bold statement. :)

I am going to turn this around on you Wellmount. If you are so certain name some that will survive where you wont lose 50% of your capital along the way. And Who says oil cannot be produced for under $70. It was done for most of producing history (inflation adjusted). I am not willing to wade into this scrum right now. Too much is based on speculation. if you listen to oil producers and industry analysts they will tell you that the world's oil can't be supplied for very long at under $70. people need to be able to stay in business and finance production with cash flow. if people can't stay in business, then we don't have enough production. when we don't have enough production we can't meet global demand. That sounds good but is it true? Industry analysts predicted that we wouldn't have a nationwide housing crisis. What if we really do go through a severe recession and demand drops? What is Saudi Arabia's cost of production? Didn't someone say around $25-$30? I want to say it was Pabrai but I could be mistaken there. The other day I was reading about traders buying up oil and putting it into storage. They're doing it because the same trade made a lot of money in 2008. I wonder if the story will end the same way. These traders pretty much have profit locked in already.

Your history is revisionist. People weren't touching banks until the tarp warrants started coming out. Spring 2009 was bad. I was investing, and its recorded on this board somewhere, at the very bottom. Were you? Much later, It was actually Francis Chou who got me interested in the Warrants. Of course is a normal commodity cycle. And very possibly right now anyone investing in oil company stocks will be handed their heads. Oil cycles can take months or possibly years to turn. Its too early. Did u sell all your Pennwest? I remember you were pretty bullish last year on it.

XCO not XOM.

Yes, bankruptcy is likely for some. FFH is holding lots of XCO and SD. will be telling if they keep them around or cut loss on them.

Great depression, 2009 financial crisis, 80 oil glut, 2000 tech bubble. The world is doomed. LOL