alertmeipp

What news? The only news I remember that is significant was China's PMI dropped. Market does not go straight up or down.

Come on, check your number. :)

11 will be a good price if this turns around.

I like to think the remaining inventory (acres proven with infrastructure) and production as the assets they are building using the cash flow. To make a extreme case, if they don't drill any new wells, cap exp will be lower, FCF will jump, but the production will drop 20-30% annually until it stops. So although you wont see any FCF all the way to 2018, the future production stream (higher #) will be a much more valuable than current.

well, they can get FCF is they cut capex and dividend. But then their ebitda will drop. FCF is just one of the metrics to consider.

If this is for Spyglass - The increases will also give them quite a bit of optionality. They can sale gas assets, and can now drill high IP gas wells (1000 BOED). With these Noel wells they can now show production growth. All and all sky high differentials, dropping loony, and increasing gas prices / cold winter are all great tailwinds to have. Differntials will only get better as pipeline / rail options improve. What do you think about WTI pricing going forward? We are talking about 30$ swing if Canadian oil is going to be priced like Brent.

I think I saw the comments on some of the article.. can't remember. But from my read, Duvernay, San Juan for example is quite new and TMS, they are spending money on appraisal. So, the concern raised was some of those can be a bit higher risk.. but of coz, if everything go well, all of the sudden, they have very valuable oil assets on book. Hope the whole oil export thing will get some traction. What worry me the most is WTI pricing.

how do you like their capex plan? Do you think they put too much on unproven asset

Another one I am "re-"looking is ECA. It has good leverage on NG as well and on top of that it's a gas to oil story (couple yrs behind CHK but must better balance sheet). Anyone want to share thought on it?

50 cents increase in AECO price will only translate to additional $16 millions cash flow... (current 4.09 vs 3.6 budget) strip so it's not helping much unless it goes to much higher. For example, 5 cents forex will translate to 81 million and 10 dollar "Light Differential" will translate to 193 million. If we assume 2014 WTI, FX, AECO price will be where they are now, they are ~$110 million ahead. The one I don't know how to approximate accurately is the "light differential" (they are getting various prices like edmonton par, heavy which I don't know where to get), I just assume they are on target for that one. One thing I was hoping to see through out 2014 is how good they will be on reducing cost, they have high cost and thus low netback before, the new management is changing that.

Both gas and oil price have been robust. WTI, FX, AECO are all ahead of the budget, but anyone know how Light Differential can be calculated?

Thanks! The offering was done after the stock doubled in short period of time. Someone got hosed. The raise was due to an excitement regarding their acres in TMS. Some nice results there. Now, the market is focus on risk and challenges. Seems another gas to oil play, EV - 1.3B, 30k acres in Eagle Ford, probably worth 400-600million. (13k - 20k per acre). They have other gas assets that they said will keep. What's interesting is its 300k net acres in TMS, these are 90%+ oil acres, the theory is if they are get TMS to close to Eagle Ford's economics and thus its per acre price. Share price will be multiple of current. Insider ownership of 20%. They will have announce results from two wells and guidance early Feb. I have bought in today and will further read up on this when time allows.

When is your turn?

TIA. any thoughts will be appreciated. just starting looking into it. The energy sector is so dead. They are proving out an new area called TMS. Decent management but run into issue recently.

Hey, they might not have lasted as long with such a crappy business! ;D Cheers! LOL, true. Most businesses die or disappear in the long haul, but it can be very profitable death. ;D

maybe we should have a new category for Sears so we can have a few sticky posts etc. that thread is going too long and finding info there is hard.

exactly my thinking, Cardboard.

Debt load generally appears too high, given the risks and volatility of the business. To make matters worse, some companies appear to distribute too much of their cash flow. I wonder when some of them, just get the message and deleverage. The Canadian E&p's certainly looks cheap based on price/cash flow metric, but one should look at the EV/cash flow ratio and then the relative valuation advantage to US peers is not as large as it first seems, imo. Capital allocation at PWT, LTS, and SGL make them kind of hard to take seriously. It would be so much more shareholder friendly to discontinue dividend payments and instead repurchase debt and shares. A dividend cancellation would likely lead to a swoon in these stocks, allowing capital to really be put to good use. Hard for me to figure out. Do these managements maybe worry they would be disenfranchising Chinese investors by taking such an action? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-19/sunshine-to-penn-west-hamper-china-bet-corporate-canada.html You need to understand their background, they are income trust and they have large shareholder base that are in it for dividend.

lts mentioned that gassy assets will be very unlikely to sell given the current liquidty and return. didnt notice both oil amd gas are tanking today

sgl, pwt and lts all tank, any news?

damn, i wish bb at least float some of those convert to the public. i woild like some of those. i may get some ffh coz of that actually

An article on PWT.TO http://seekingalpha.com/article/1927531-firm-natural-gas-prices-and-a-lower-canadian-dollar-make-penn-west-a-good-bet?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0 Some of the comments are interesting as well.

So, how many of you actually own some Canadian oil producers here? For those who don't, why?

That they were really undervalued. :) Totally possible, but how many simply followed the few great investors that really recognized this? Hypothetical; lets say you had a group of people who simply copied Buffett a couple of decades ago. They would have outperformed, and you probably should give them some credit for choosing to follow Buffett. But it would be really one guy that would have been the great investor, not the group of followers (imo). So how many great investors versus followers are there on this board? There are great followers and poor followers. Who loaded up on IBM and ignored BAC? Who bought BBRY and ignored Bank of Ireland? Great point. But financial was a bit overrated last year compare to other sectors.

They do have a plan but some think it's not aggressive enough or not hitting the right problem.