alertmeipp

If they think some techs will make oil price much lower, they should diversity away from oil completely.

If SA really doing this because they see the future pricing going much lower, why would they invest billions on new refinery capacity.

That's an awesome chart. I'm staying away from oil from this day forth :) You might want to do one on S&P

How dare you mention those two things on this board. Don't you know only lousy investors diversify? Buffett only has 20 punches, Munger says 3 stocks are all anyone needs, how can that now work? All Cardboard needs to do is put 100% of his portfolio into SD, someone above said it will double this year. There you go, all his losses back in a single gain. In all seriousness, I appreciate the candid post Cardboard. Introspection into mistakes is where growth comes from. You miss understanding my point about SD. I am not saying SD will double. All I was trying to say is being down big at a given time isn't really that important, it is the price you sell that counts. I used SD as an example because many of us were in. It was 4 bucks 2-3 months ago. And many said it's cheap. And pumped when management and the company buy back the shares at 3. Now we are 1.23, will SD trades back up to 4 next 3 months? Who knows? If it does, what will the lesson be? If Cardboard is right on his oil prediction, all this paper lost will reverse.

This drop in oil stocks is comparable to the financial one we have had. Brutal. But if u only need a double, it will come along. SD double, will be 2.5. Tpg and prem will need another double from there to get to ur position. Hope is a good thing as long as it is not the only thing.

>>Now I understand that Al Awalaeed's statement that we may not see $100 oil. Never says Never. I am surprised he said they.

They key after losing money is to learn from your mistake. I find it very hard. It's like a personality thing. I shall overcome. A checklist helps!

Congrats on all those nice return. I will report mine after after it looks nicer. Lol. Happy holidays. Give back some whether or not you make good money. After all, we all the lucky oil to have extra money to invest.

a few months does not make a trend.

Not quite sure what you are saying here. That buying back shares now is a bad decision by management? They omitted the fact that insiders and the company were buying back shares. They would have known those things when they issued their press release. Bad form. Insiders were front running the NCIB. That strikes me as unethical. The Nov 10 was mainly regarding issuer repurchase plan agreement, the NCIB is there since a year ago.

They have been clear. They will cut capex before dividend.

This price might still stays for a while tho. I still have hard time believing with the supply and demand we have and projected to have, we will see such a dramatic drop in so short of time.

I's about how ppl see the future, back then, ppl have high expectation of China and Euro demand, Iran just got its sanction and some worry that it will cause bigger trouble. Syria was blowing up. Now, many of those are either ignored or reversed. But with China and Euro gov doing all they can to stimulate their econ and current low oil price, hopefully, the glut will get balance out soon. Middle East is big wildcard. None of the conflicts there seems to cause production to drop much.

Op cost not all in cost.

All 2015 CL futures trades below 70s. Forward pricing is useless forecaster.

Well, If he see big volatility, shouldn't he put more hedge in. Oil can go anywhere. All I am pointing out is there is a disconnect in his comments and cnq strategy

u know what's funny... CNQ itself is using 80 bucks WTI assumption for 2015. And their 2015 hedge is very light. If he really believes what he said, wouldn't you expect a very different picture. And the fact he used 2008 as an example tells you something, maybe he wanted some lawsuit.. LOL.

Depends on how u look. You can make a case that Pennwest is not leveraged. They have assets to sell, they have dividend to cut. Top notch gassy assets are still in demand and probably more so now.

Stock price was 50 percent higher than today. If I were to believe oil will be 70, I would have sold and short many of the real higher cost ones.. I thought it will stabilize in the 80s. It was wrong and paid dearly.

say they convert the debt to equity... how would their balance sheet look like?

+1

I hope he is right that marginal cost is 90 usd.

Indeed, many producers with great acres in eagle Ford and Permian are shifting more drilling there. The immediate effects is they keep their growth promise with lesser capex. The longer term effects is higher marginal cost for new production. This will take some time under Russia or OPEC cut or something blow up in middle east.

It is very complex. Looks at all those deals that closed in the first 9 months. Look at those multiple people were willing to pay. Those involved know better than many of us and yet they didn't see this coming. All government, OPEC didn't see this coming. And somehow, now, everybody and their dogs said it was obvious. Depletion is real, ever increase production and efficiency is real. But so are tons of borrowing and equity financing used to fund the drilling. Not many companies can continue their growth without dipping more into debt. I agree, we careless about what the budget needs. Their citizens do. The sentiment is terrible and likely to get worse. Those who bet the right side will make a killing. The bet is on what is the price to balance supply and demand? Forget about what each gov needs.

It is weird the market ignore news like that. I guess the whole sell off is difficult to explain to begin with.