alertmeipp

Kevin, 2014, they are probably ahead than the reserve report in term of pricing. 2015 2016, factor in exchange rate, they are probably on par. 2017 and beyond, they are about 10 percent off Dont see how that would cut the nav in half

Us producers like sd and xco are holding up well. Lts is still treated like crap. At 80 wti, we are talking about 400m fund flow vs about 2billions ev. And back up to 3x ff/debt. Not sure when the beating will stop. But make sure sell some when media is talking about tight supply and asset sale was going so quick. At the mean time, continue to enjoy thr slaughter. We paid for this.

Looks like another big down day with wti still deep in red. The drop in share price is justified if wti continue to be depressed

Re: PWT. The reinstatement is done and the reaction to it was clearly overdone, but all oil and gas stock are down severely in last few weeks.

Many names mentioned here are down big from recent high. FTP, FNM, FRE, AIQ, PWE, SD, XCO, SHLD, INLOT, ALSK, ALS, ADV, Drillers, Russian stocks. Anyone here are not in any of these names, please share why u avoid them all?

From the surface of news, Saudi and Kuwait clearly want to force other higer cost producers to cut. They wont like 80 or 90 dollars brent, but have wti and brent stays down here will for sure get some high cost producers think hard about their budget cycle. Valuetrap, can u be specific?

Sigh. What a change a few short weeks made.

Dont own any SD now, was browsing their presentation. They claim to be able to double their ebitda in 3 years with 30 percent growth per year. I think they used to guide only 15 percent growth. What changed? Well cost? That is very respectful growth. I can see it double in couple years if they deliver. Still like Pwe more on their assets. I think we will soon see pwe debt to cash flow ratio swing down to near one with limited impact on current cash flow.

Some of the producers were holding up well when the general markets and wti were down less than one percent in the morning. All hell break loose when markets get into heavy selling mode. Wti remains weak which is troubling. But it is still hard to believe LTSs price cut in half in few short months. The successful asset sales are all ignored then some. Hope their Swanhills update will be positive. I think we will see buyback announcement soon.

Wti hits yet another new 52 weeks low, geo risk and a few bullish eia draws on us crude were all getting ignored. Saudi not even making much comment with brent dropped 15 percent last few months. All they have to say if they will cut if it drops further. Price will stablize but they dont do even that as far as i know. Lots of conspiracy theories out there.

Saudi has a lot to lose if they mismanaged this. The safest path for them is to cut soon.

They have 100k plus acres. 1.5 billions usd if u apply the same sale price. But obviously can be more or less than that depending actual quality of the assets. But i believe Pennwest is in the oil window there

Wti and brent gap is collapsing. OPEC needs to show the world that they can and want to protect the price. Many producers are hitting year low day after day. Train wreck and huge constrast between now and just few short months ago Have the oil supply and demand fundamental change this dramatically in this short period of time? We will see many Canadian producers go up dramatically when they are assigned similar metrics to US.

Just sell bakken and cardium to cpg for 4 billion. Cpg will probably jump on that. John will have swan hills and other development assets to play with. We can also dream

Isn't there lots of over capacity there?

Russia will just pump more, and they will bypass usd settlement. Saudi and Russia are low cost producers. US is not neither the north sea. Not sure why the market makes a big deal about Saudi one buck price cut. Wti and brent dropped like 10 15 bucks. Saudi will have to drop to be competitive. Iran already asks for cut.

Thanks. Noted. My thinking is straight forward, they can get to 2billions fund flow, give it a 7x. We get a 20 dollars still in 4 years while getting the dividend along the way. So far, they are ahead in their plan except asset.sale.

PWT's 5 year plan uses $90 oil. And i think 1.03 exchange rate. So 85 wti will still look good for them at current exchange rate. But asset sale will be difficult. For 2014, budget for 92.5 So things are ok. But if one thinks wti is heading to 70, no reason to be in this sector.

Oil sand is bye bye even at current pricing. No new development there. Us shale is at about $75 marginal cost for new productions.

Yes. I agree the market is pricing in 70s oil for some. If the market is wrong, we will be more than fine.

I am sure many of the opec countries, us shale gas ans oil sand will go into serious troubles before PWT. I have more than i want. But sometimes, one has to go the Eric way to come out ahead.

Who is buying this selloff? Feels like 2008, every day five to ten percent off. :'(

My USO puts did well but USO didn't really go down as fast as these producers. Should use etf option next time. Lol

Nothing that i see warrants this drop but again i am the dummy who added yesterday. Commodities is fairly strong today. I am tap out, all i can do is get slaughtered

The sentiment on oil and gas stocks is like day and night compare to few short months ago. How many of you still have significant weighting in this sector? I added quite a few names last couple weeks and it is no fun. Do you guys see this as seasonal or bigger thing is happening