alertmeipp

I am trying to rationalize the downward pressure. The only reason I see is some accounts (mostly funds) are selling the shares now to raise cash to subscribe to the right offering at discount. At current prices, we are looking at 30% more shares (i.e. accounts will need to come up with additional 30% of their total SFK holding value for the right offering). So it makes for that are fully invested in SFK to sell some now and get ready for the right offering. I think it's an excellent opportunity for those have tons of cash sitting around ready for a fat pitch. P.S. fully invested does not necessarily mean 100% invested, but some funds has sizing limit on individual stocks.

more beating... down to 1.4.. I guess the news sucks :)

IMO, on the paper, the book value will likely be diluted. But book value is not important, we traded down to 20 cents while the book value is 5 bucks; so book value or replacement cost is just for the look. :) Their capital structure is too leveraged, it's okay when the market is good, but when time are tough, they will be in trouble. They would have gone under had the pulp market not recover for another year or so. I think dilute while the pulp market is hot is good, the reduction of interest costs although will not be reflected in book value is for real - being a lower cost producer is always good.

>>Great deal for FFH, considering the discount for the shares they will get. For SFK I am guessing this is there least bad option. Yeah, and they get paid for it as well.

It was obviously from the last few PRs that they are going to do something to reduce debt. I was thinking they will issue shares at a slight discount to pay off part of the convert (like ICO). I think right offering is much better for existing shareholders.

This would explain the continuous selling around 1.5. :) not sure how this will react tmw, normally, rights will mean downward pressure. will be good time to pick up some. converting USD loan is CDN is a good move at current forex. 40 million reduction to debt

non-stop dumping. someone want out before 1Q.

one other negative is loonie has been strong through out the quarter - that will hurt the bottom line quite a bit. RBK will be a drag for sure. Positives: - They are cutting costs - N pulp price up to 1000 bucks - higher than even when the share price was 4 bucks. I think they need to bite the bullet and convert some

i don't think apple has to have the best products to win anymore.

apple, its brand is just too strong.

Thanks everyone. the ideas are interesting..

Any one know any Canadian discount broker that will automatically calculate the P&L for the tax return?

I am looking for some long term fund for a RRSP account, any recommendations?

nice move, Myth465. should have raised my bid! >:(

actually the stock has tanked from $4 because of this lawsuit...this news is very positive for KFS as if they had to take Lincoln back, they may breach some of their debt covenants.

I agree. I disagree. Some can be attributed to luck. Some is strategy. If you are not prepared you cant take advantage of luck. Several of us on this board (actually its predecessor) bought FFH leaps in 2006. I did then, and repeated it in 2007, 2008, and 2009, and have massively leveraged the gains in FFH stock. Like Eric, though, it is no one trick pony. It is more formulaic. Somehow one learns to identify the opportunities. Of coz, I didn't mean only luck was involved. Smart ones will stop making this all-or-nothing bet after a while... some wasn't smart enough to stop and ending up in a disaster. First-hand experiences here. Eric is smart enough to admit he lucked out. With that in mind, I am sure he will continue to be a successful investors for years to come. Over-confidences can kill!

honestly, u just luck out. it would easily go the other way.

wow.. did u put more money into your accounts thru the years? the result are simply amazing.

Thanks. Sounded like accounting issues only... As long as fraud is not involved... maybe some opps here.

anyone knows what's happening? down 25% on heavy volume.

I don't think US can afford a trade war either. Inflation will shoot up if no more import from China. US currencies will tank when China starts selling treasuries heavily. (Russia will happily follow suit). China and US need each other and they know it. Don't take what you see in face value. :)

CFX up to 11 bucks on very strong volume plus paying dividend. soon SFK will get its deserved attention. At the mean time, be patience.

Closed exactly 1 dollar today. I am now officially underwater. :(

one thing I like to add: their CF has a higher interest rate than normal as a result of previous covenant breach... i think by like 300bps. If they can lower that somehow, it will be great!

Uccmal - that was what I meant. Re: RBK - that would not be an easy problem to solve unless all those subsidy stop. During the CC, management mentioned that the two great negatives that greatly impact the profitablity of SFK are reversing: 1. US sibsidy (helps RBK) 2. High cost of Quebec wood chips. (helps NSBK) Stove - are you sure the biomass is same as black liquor? The management didn't mention this one on their call. 2010 should be better than 2009 for sure. I am a buyer today *unfortunately, was a buyer yesterday as well*