alertmeipp

IMO, seldom we will see convert price ~30% above the market price, especially when the lender is on ur throat.

Not sure why they keep changing the presentation without much new info. The market needs to see cash flow projections and how the debt will be paid off...

Munger, Thanks. Do you investing like you are now when you were younger? If not, what triggered the change?

Munger, you are much conservative than I am. You have the patience to wait for the fat pitches. I am very weak on that. If you don't mind, would you share you track records? broxburnboy, of coz, I know the bad econ general lead to bad corp profits, but my point no one can see what is going to happen 6 months out.

Munger, when was the last time you buy stocks agressively?

Also, how do you guys view the recent M&A activities?

I see some posters trying to forecast the future on macro scale. That turns investing to a guessing game. We have something better to be based on.

I meant to say "what you said"..

just wonder, why u said early retirement.. how early?

I am thinking 40x.. then I only need 2.5% to get my salary. I am not sure if i will ever get there!

>>Also: debt to portfolio size matters as well, especially in a deflationary environment, no? I don't have debt so it does apply to me. But if u have debt load to service.. i bet it's important.

I bet lots of the selling recently is from ARD shareholders, the deal April 4 valued ARD at around around 37 bucks. Now, is 4.77 x $3.4 less = about 20 bucks. They probably think Tom screwed them. I am deeply underwater on this one too. I think the drop is also because it's almost impossible to project cash flow on this company. Shifting oil to ng or vice versa is it makes it impossible to do so. And with debt load like SD, if u can't project cash flow, it's hard to convince analysts to buy in. Unless the company gives guidance and stick to it, but that's what the company doesn't want to do!

thanks everyone. Nice point about after-tax income and expense. my after-tax ratio: ~7x (and dropping fast along with SD :)) my expense is super low (cheap guy) so I would post the ratio.

some discussion on other thread makes me wonder... what's everyone's income to portfolio size ratio and cash weighting? I am thinking the first is effecting the latter. I am not good with computer, how to set up a poll like that?

Last few days has been bad. I disagree with other posters that said there aren't keep stuff out there but they just get cheaper!

I disagree. ATPG has real risk as they are focus on GOM. SD is not in risk.

I have also added. It's not super cheap if NG price stucks at current range. The recent acquisitions allow the company to stay alive while NG price recover. I guess what the market missing is the same volume of oil will generate significant more cash flow than the same volume of NG. Not sure why Ward doesn't provide some sort of CF guidance.

his thesis and conclusion has lots of conflict, isn't it?

1.35 should be an easy target IMO. the right offering + the cash generated this quarter should make next Q's balance sheet looks golden.

Have couple large insider buys as well.

Yeah, note that I said ""Finally, a insider buy. Good sign.". Still a good sign, right?

yeah... life sucks. :)

Yes, it is. Canadian rules need them to take projected potential loss in the current Q. US rules allow companies to take realize those potential loss later on.

Finally, a insider buy. Good sign.

The gov will make sure it's inflation. Deflation will kill the economy.