alertmeipp

i understand that.. but to say to pay 20b will make BP insolvent is non-sense.

>>Matt Simons on the other hand, was quoted " In response to calls for a $20 billion escrow to be set aside by BP, Simmons concludes the company’s as good as insolvent. >>“They have $5 billion in cash, a $5 billion line of credit, and a $10B emergency line of credit,” says Simmons, “and they boast about how their operating cash flow is $17 billion per quarter. But that’s all consumed in capital expenditures. This outlay [the $20 billion] is going to consumer everything they have.” that's non-sense. BP will pop to 50 if 20 billions is all they needed.

1.25 - it was hoping we would up big today. seems like we will stuck around here until the right offering is done.

the record date is June 18. Later than I expect.

hopefully, things will improve after they file the final prospectus early next week. All in all, after the rights is done, we will be looking at a slightly de-leveraged co. capable of generating 80+ millions of EBITDA with ~160million market cap. I assumed 40millions new shares with subscription price of around 1.06. Of coz, we are dealing with uncertainties like pulp price, woodchip price, currency exchange rates and overall economy.But at 2x EBITDA, it seems pretty good investment. Thoughts?

why would any big buyer want to buy now with the uncertainty and complication around the right offerings. I would sell convert if I still have those. :) Can't blame her. Maybe she need to get the cash to subscribe the shares like us. I agree next move will be interesting. I bot some now-under water shares today.

try to put a bid up in 1.3 and u will see. It won't stay there long, someone is selling there for some reasons. If they can save 200 basis pts on the new debt, that's close to 4 millions, no reason to sell here until you have to sell to get ready for the rights. Notice that their rate is higher than normal due to the breach of covenants last year. So, this deal is needed to bring the cost down.

a bit more insider buying. FFH is backstopping.. I am not too worry. At this price, it is 2 x cash flow. too bad for those who are forced to sell because of the right offering. Can't blame them.. not everyone want to fork up 50% more to a small-cap. will they actually buy some sawmills with the money?

Anyone what's stopping them from filing the final prospectus? I think they should get it done quick to get the interest saving benefits and remove the uncertainty.

I know others that are trading below cash, most of burning cash and have broken business models. But ACTS is different, we are talking about 70% return if pps just returns to cash value. Plus, I can see a growth story over next 5 years in Asian market.

cash is $3.5 per share, no debt. Income has been around break-even for last couple years and projected to be again break-even next. Invest heavily in R&D, pretty much spend all cash flow on it. Cash in RMB, so their income statement is boosted by forex rate a bit. Currently trading at $2.1. Symbol: ACTS... why so cheap? and it has been cheap for a long time. I have it on and off for couple years.

This deal sucks because it hurts the upside. But in theory, if u can fork up cash, you still own the same percent of the company and it will limit the downside when the econ turns bad. I still think to re-capitalized is needed, but the execution is bad - but they have to disclose it once they reach an agreement with FFH and Quebec gov etc. I think they want to acquire something... having 100million liquidity by year end seems non-sense if they plan to just sit on it.

It was there in the org press release. is the over-subscription an option before?

so the right offering details will be coming out any days now?

These prices are better than those when SFK was trading at 5 bucks. I believe their current wood chips price are locked in; the prices they paid are quite a bit higher than market (that's the impression I got from last CC). Those contracts will end end of this year, so next year will really be transformation for this co. Expect to see more insider buys in coming weeks.

In my past experience, stocks often trade poorly during a conversion. I think the reason is because trust funds won't buy those (may have to liquidate) and typical mutual funds normally won't invest on trusts. On top of that, we have that pending right offerings that we are still lacking the details. Of coz, the general market did not help. If euro doesn't blow up and the econ stabilized, SFK will be a cash flow machine worth significant more than today's price.

why not buy ARD instead. couple percent cheaper if you think the deal will go through. if not, ARD does not have the debt load to deal with.

the 20% only applies to backstop shares. the discount for right offering is not set. but whatever that discount is, will apply to all of us include FFH.

SD, mind to tell us why u take some off the table now? Is it to get $ ready for the rights?

About the early announcement, they had to announce it once the backstopped deal is reached with Fairfax as it is considered material information, they will have to disclose it because of the securities law.

Cardboard, SFK. I was surprised to hear back from the IR so quick too. The email address is posted on SFK website. A very prompt response indeed, that's always a good sign for investors.

Anyways, at 1.4, the pps is very cheap. Should be able to make good money on this one. Just got a reply from IR, FFH will have to subscribe fully for its own shares before the 20% kicks in.

While I believe FFH will be obligated to subscribe on its own shares fully because the standby commitment kicks in... by driving prices the share price lower does increase the cash outlay shareholders will have to make to fund this right offering which would cost more selling. they will end up with 60 millions liquidity - i think they will reach 100millions+ by year end. If anyone thinks a sale is happening, I say don't bank on it. I think SFK may end up being a acquirer (likely backed by FFH).

interesting point, in theory, if fairfax drives the pps to 45 cents (market cap 40M, and that means share count will need to double to get 40M). Then, FFH skips the main offering, let the stand-by kick in, they could possibly end up with getting 20%+ of the company at a very cheap price (39 cents in this example). I can see why FFH want to shake out retails and drive the share price lower and lower. PS. I don't think we will go to 45 cents, just to make my example stands out.

yes, the early announcement is odd, but I think this can be ending up a good opp.