alertmeipp

Well, I don't give a damn about that. ;)

I don't think why Canadian banks has such a high regard, my understanding is they are pretty much monopoly there in a protected market. They charge crazy fee and currency spread. Customers of them get ripped left and right.

Would someone define Depression here? I am not even sure if our definition would be the same? 25% unemployment worldwide? 60% of global trade vanished? What would be the interest rate?

With threads going on discussing how to hedge and short. I want to inject some bullish view... With stocks going this low, how much gain would you expect from your portfolio if the world manage to have modest growth rather than depression? I am waiting to see a sizable gain from this level if the econ just muddle along - I still think the chance is high. US data is not that bad at all. China should reverse its tightening policy fairly soon. QE3 is coming. US housing is cheaper than rents now. EU - they are not stupid, they will get hurt the most if they don't solve this well. German wants to drag this on so they are not the only one to pay the bills and they may get that. Risk is there but reward is there as well. Disclosure: Fully invested and get creamed this year so far.

seriously, with every gov looks around each other trying to boost growth.. do u guys really expect a depression will hit?

Wish there is a recommend feature here!

the problem i see with hedging is most of those - u need to pay time value on the hedge.. i.e. as the time goes and the event u hedge for didn't happen, ur hedge value will go down. (like options.)

I really depends on what's priced in... there are political risk, big bank sentiment, housing risk, debt risk, lawsuit risk, ML execution risk? compare to other, big bank sentiment isn't top in the list. Their deposit is still growing...

To those who think BAC is cheap, what % are you putting in? I can see this play out very well over the long term... I want to swap some of my craps into BAC...

It does feel weird.

the funny thing is FBK could afford even more divi than CFX but choose to not to. They want debt free or what? Whether it's cheap or not depends on what you think about the RBK turnaround. At 40c, market cap is 48millions, EV = 130m.. cash flow >40m. Hope it doesn't get to be that cheap. MERC has more leverage (although as some posters point out, its power revenue covers it well).

The key is RBK, it's losing money now. If they can turn it around and merely produce a stable (cost plus) 5million earning per quarter. It will be a huge winner.

Finally got time to go through the numbers, I agree with their leverage, no way they should be paying ~7.5% (from memory). But as they pay down the debt, 1% - 2% is become more and more irrelevant. With their power revenue coming online, they can afford the current leverage. (power revenue ~covers interest expense). They should start either shares buyback and then issue dividend. Is inventory built up a concern?

This post was actually a pretty sell signal! :'(

When are we going to see a hard landing on Canada real estate?

My bad.

Seems to be working out OK for Iceland. It will be the right thing for Greece to do too http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-world-can-learn-from-icelands-default-model-2011-8?op=1 Hopefully this will assist in bringing about some real changes to the banking and financial system. As Taleb said it is basically just an issue of remuneration. Know your facts - Greece is not Ireland. Ireland got hit by growth and asset bubble. Greece got hit by over-spending and entitlements. In short, Ireland is at least productive, Greece is...

They should just call off this CDS thing. If u own bond, do ur homework. Greece debt got cut 50% and it's not default and thus CDS doesn't protect the creditors at the end.. why bother.

what the.... Why curve ball likes to hit when I am low on hedge? and can't they all come at once and just get it done already. Why I own SD? It's an assets play. It's safer than the price suggests.

So much swing. I see I need to put in much more work to get sub-par result. Teaching me to turn off the quotes and just focus on the companies!

I figure he is playing trick or treat like a kid.

or they just print like mad.

To get a better deal! Look how much they've talked down the rest of Europe so far. Papandreuo et al are waking up to how much leverage they have. All deal will come with spending cut, so the end result is the same. The spoiled won't accept the cut.

What are they thinking? I don't see EU will let them drag this on to Dec let alone Jan. The next EU response will be explosive.

the can-kicking deal reached last week is not just for Greece. Greece can go out of EURO anytime and the impact won't be big at all. The big thing is getting ready for Italy and Spain.