alertmeipp

Right, I am aware that many on this board made a small fortune in FFH LEAPS during the saga. They were higher risk, because of the fact that they're options and expire, but they were a good bet. Again, they were an educated, asymmetric, higher risk bet. But the people who made a killing in FFH LEAPS I'd imagine knew a great deal about FFH and Watsa and were able to make a bet based on this education. They were able to get a handle on the odds. From what I've seen, TRE buyers don't have this. My opinion I guess. Different people, different styles. Some can strike with limited info and can suffer great lost/risk, some can't. There is no right or wrong.

>> But educated is the operative word there. Get it? Would you expand on this? >>Two "critical errors" down many to go. I read news before saying if one posts some false statements in message board in order to profit from it, one would get prosecuted. Does it apply to MW?

How many times I have to say this: there are two critical errors in MW's 40 page report and those are critical errors, they don't even get the business model. What research have you done to make you so convinced that you would go short? The odd of an investment is an educated guess, most of us have a number/range in mind. The odd of lottery/casino is calculated value. You think WFC didn't have a odd of zero when the financial system were going to collapse?

EP at $3, ATSG at 20 cents, FBK at 20 cents, FFH at $80, WFC at $8, BAC at 2 bucks. Buying those back then has real risk of going zero too. Not many times we can have "baggers" with little risk.

:o :o And we're on a board named after two insurers! You should read Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Taleb. You will learn the faultiness of this logic if you do. By the way, for just $10,000, I'll sell you the right to win $100,000 next year. But it only has a 1% chance of winning Would you do it? As you tried to indicate, the odd is the key here. For example, if one figures the odd is 50%. Current price is a buy.

Looks like MW is just the face to the public. The real money is made by some one else.

buying with great uncertainty is tough but often how big $ is made. Too bad I don't know Sino enough. a report with clear errors can take Sino down like that. Hope no one lost their life saving on this.

Thanks buddy. ;D

In the post right above mine you wrote: Let me explains - Used to be, my simple mind was thinking whether this is a fraud or not. But now, it's like even if it's not a fraud, what would be the consequence? (as Moody points out.) Moody's has a point this time. Now if they cannot issue more debt, can they sell their assets easily if they can't roll over their debt? Can they lower their cap-ex to generate cash flow enough? Used to be: Fraud: 0. (X%) Non Fraud: back to 20. (100-X%) Now: Fraud: 0. Non-Fraud: what would that be? (I don't know how to figure out.) If MW were a bigger firm, then there will be value assign for potential lawsuit... but...

Moody for possible downgrade. MW said will release more material "pretty soon". Sino appoints independent reviewers. Too hard to figure out pile.

Both. it's because internal investigation as well Q release coming up. I think they are quick to address the two critical allegations. The others like foreign currency movement and arm-length counter parties are less critical but also harder to prove. I don't have a good feel on MW now after I see his Bloomberg video and after his I will release something pretty soon comment. If he is so confidence, why he plays this kind of game and didn't bother to rebuttal to Sino's documents? After all, he made two big errors on his short report. He sounded like a investment cop helping the little guy saving $ but he doesn't act like one. I am very tempted to build a full size.

But that was known before their report. Yes. The inflated asset value and impossible lumber sales were the couple of the main points in his report. But now he doesn't even comments on those points when Sino shows its proof. But he mentioned he has more ammo and will short it to zero. (didn't disclose how much he were shorting and how much still remain though.) Kind of odd that Sino says the company and its officers can't do buy back... sounds fishy?

Lack of cash generation is now MW's biggest offense pt. The previously comments on sales and asset values are no longer the front runner.

Assuming you are saying that you now are long the stock, and aren't making a non sequitur about the fact that you just did the robot dance... Please share any of your research that refutes any of MW's claims. Nearly everyone's thesis on this board seems to be "Herb Greenberg interviewed Carson Block for a few minutes once, so clearly Sino is clean as a whistle." I'm just wondering if you have any new insights into where MW went wrong and why Sino is most likely not a fraud. Thanks. Nothing new - Just I read some scans in Sino's dataroom that support it cash balances and land purchase. May still be a fraud but chances are less than less Friday.

I just bot a little.

Safety? Are they worried about a mad horde of investor storming the office in khakis and oxfords and beating them with their financial calculators? Was a joke. EDIT: I would suggest ppl concerned should call their office to find out why.

My guess is this is probably for safety reason.

Nice work. But I would rather buy today than Friday. :D

I think if TRE can only point out two errors in a 40 page report, then TRE is in a lot of trouble. I expect their to be a larger report out rejecting MW soon, then I expect MW to release a report rejecting what the management said. This will probably go on until TRE gets delisted, or MW loses all their hard earned reputation because they wrote a report that was completely false and TRE's management proves it. I think the former is far more likely. The reason I think it's top notch is because it includes a lot of work that you can't get through reading the filings. I've some disclosures in chinese filings that make my head spin, but when I tell my friends about them they say "well, it might be a bad company, at least they disclosed it." So I really respect people who put on their shoes and dig up their research. They find material that wasn't disclosed to the average shareholder and should have been. If it has 2 errors (and they are not small), then I can't say it's top notch but for sure it has lots of details.

My thinking is the 2 points they respond are most critical re: assets value and re: sales.

>>who I've known to otherwise be rational are trying to ignore the report that MW put out. Like who? I don't see anyone ignoring the report. If one were to ignore it, one would be buying hand over fist Friday.

Or be on the sidelines and stay away from it all? Of coz, if you don't know what you are doing (like myself), better to stay sideline.

I think if Sino is a fraud, we will know very soon. It should be quick to check: Is the 1.2 billions cash there? Do they actually own the land and are the trees there? Who are the counter parties that purchased all standing logging? We should know in weeks if not days and I am sure multiple parties are in China checking as we speak. It's this odd time that defines us. This is the time one can go rich or broke based on the decision.

They may have additional info or they may not. The process doesn't really matter. At the end of day, only the FACT counts. In next few years, Sino is either a $40+ or $0 stock. However, I doubt they have additional info that are more damaging than they have already released.

What do you think about the two errors TRE points out in their PR? It's a fine report but doesn't seem top notch to me. it has lots to details that one cannot really verify by reading through the filings.