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Showing content with the highest reputation on 10/04/2024 in all areas

  1. @mananainvesting asks a great question for the board. How do you decide when to trim or sell all of your Fairfax position. All of the inputs you may consider are interesting to me. My plan is not to sell any until I forecast forward ROE below 10%. I think it will be very hard to do that.
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  2. @mananainvesting, I can't actually answer that question. My answer would be gibberish. Because it would lack important context about my personal situation (my specific reasons for selling). With Fairfax I have a large core position. I then flex this core position up and down. Sometimes by quite a bit. What I do with the flex part of my portfolio primarily depends on what Mr. Market does. But even the sizing of my core position can fluctuate up and down. Again, depending on the facts and fundamentals at Fairfax. And what is going on in the general market (what do other opportunities look like). And what is going on in my head. And taxes are becoming an important factor for part of my Fairfax position (a very good problem). A couple of new wrinkles for me this year are retirement and estate planning considerations. I will be 60 next year so these two topics have been becoming more important to me (I am at the learnings stage). On the retirement angle, I am beginning to think I probably should have 2 or 3 years of living expenses socked away in a cash type account (thanks to comments from others of this board recently). This is not a big deal, but it likely means I will reduce the weightings of all of my individual holdings. On the estate planning angle, if I am ever hit by a bus my family needs to know what to do with all of the different investment portfolios (we are all hit by the Father Time bus eventually). A year ago I started to shift part of our portfolios into broad based ETF/index funds (mostly XIC.TO and VOO). A year later, I love how I feel about it - so much so that I have shifted more into ETF/index funds. This is providing my family with a clear roadmap of what to do the day I am no longer around (or able) to manage our investments. In recent years, taxes have also become an important factor for me. I may sell a chunk of Fairfax in a non-registered account to lock in a large gain for tax purposes. I also have some philosophical things rattling around in my head. I like reading Morgan Housel's stuff. His view is at my age I should be focussed on 'preservation of capital' not maximizing 'return on capital.' Buffett (or Munger) have said a similar thing: 'why would you risk what you need for what you don't need'. Does it make sense for me to have a concentrated position in a stock given my current situation (I have enough)? I also change my mind a lot. At the margin. I like to try things. And then wait and see how I feel afterwards. Was it a good decision? or not? My price target might change next week (it might go up and it might go down). Anyways, this post is probably reading like the writing of a complete nut job. All I can say is it has worked for me for 25 years
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  3. @Viking What would be the lowest price you would sell your $FRFHF shares today? (Which should closely reflect what its worth according to you). I would probably sell my shares at $2000 USD, as I think there is a high chance Fairfax will earn 15% ROE over the foreseeable future and selling any lower is not worth the hassle of redeploying money in other ideas.
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