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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/01/2023 in all areas

  1. Fairfax's equity holdings (that I track) finished Q2 up $766 million or about $33/share. mark to market = +$275 million associates = +$364 million consolidated = +$127 million This does not include the $260 million pre-tax gain from the sale of Ambridge which closed in Q2. Including Ambridge, that puts it over $1 billion in gains for the quarter from equities and realized gains. I do not track lots of Fairfax's holdings so the gain in equities is likely a little higher. The rub, of course, will be the bond portfolio. Interest rates spiked in Q2. And we have IFRS 17. So my guess is these two items will result in a sizeable unrealized loss. How much? Not sure; I need to give it more thought. Do others have an estimate? Bottom line, I love that interest rates are motoring higher. Fairfax still has a very short 2.5 year average duration with their fixed income portfolio. I wonder if they are using the current spike in bond yields to move the average duration even further out. ---------- Back to the equity holdings. Below were the biggest movers in Q2: Eurobank +$378 million FFH TRS +$165 million Thomas Cook India +$84 million Stelco -$78 million ---------- I have attached my Excel spreadsheet if board members want a closer look. Fairfax Equity Holdings June 30 2023.xlsx
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  2. Regardless of what’s going on, haven’t folks realized by now it’s a bad idea in general to make bets against basically everything blowing up? Essentially wagering that the powers that be will just stand by and let it happen? You’re already seeing it in the US….now folks wanna blame and be hostile that the bear trade is losing steam but bottom line is you should know better and when there’s intervention, like there always is, you don’t get to moan and groan about how you got screwed. Even more generally speaking, WTF is it with the bear people? Like there’s a million and one ways you can make easy money being long a whole variety of things. Yet for some reason these folks have this need to stand on a pedestal, screaming for attention, hoping to call a measly 10-25% down move? Which is not only challenging, but also difficult to time. So these experts and fund managers and doomsdayers aren’t even really trying to make money it seems, but simply get attention and walk around for a short while as “the guy who called it”….isn’t that kind of pathetic?
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