Leaderboard

Below are the answers to the questions i posed before Q1 results were released. Great start to the year. Insurance: 1.) what is top line growth? Over or under 10%? Answer: 6% growth is slowing; but still solid. 2.) what is the CR? Over or under 95? Answer: 94 like other insurers, sightly elevated cat losses in Q1. 3.) update on hard market. What is outlook for 2023? positive outlook overall. Fixed income portfolio: 4.) what kind of increase do we see in interest income? $382 million Run rate for interest and dividend income looks to have levelled off at $1.5 billion. 5.) did average duration of bond portfolio get pushed out closer to 2 years? Yes. Got to 2.5 years. $1.5 billion in interest and dividend income is likely for 2023, 2024 and 2025. 6.) given fall in interest rates in March, do we see mark to market gains in fixed income? Yes. $319 million gain. Equity Portfolio: 7.) what is amount of mark to market gain? $410 million My estimate was around $300 million. 8.) Resolute closed in Q1. Proceeds were $625 million. Likely used to purchase longer dated treasuries. Other: 9.) share of profits of associates? $334 million. surprisingly high. Lead by Eurobank at $94 million. tracking at more than $1.1 billion for 2023, which would be a record. 10.) Book value? $803 (including IFRS-17) Dec 31 BV (old) = $658/share Dec 31 BV (IFRS-17) = $764/share (+$106 vs old) March 31 BV (new) = $764 + $49 (earnings) - $10 (dividend) = $803/share 11.) share buybacks during quarter? Yes. At March 31, 2023, effective common shares outstanding = 23.2 million. At Dec 31, 2022, effective common shares outstanding = 23.3 million. 12.) what is net debt? No material change from Dec 31, 2022. 13.) capital allocation priority moving forward? strong financial position support growth of insurance subs share buybacks Updates/Commentary: 14.) Ambridge Partners: sale close in May. Gain = $255 million. 15.) GIG purchase of Kipco’s 46% stake: should close in 2H; will result in $300 million gain. 16.) Digit IPO: timing update? Working on getting regulatory approvals. IPO will happen when market conditions are supportive. ————— Is Fairfax on glide path to earn $2.4 billion from underwriting income + interest and dividend income in 2023? Yes. New estimate = $2.6 billion. —————