All Activity
- Past hour
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Can't even begin to form an opinion here because we have just now begun negotiating. But it has the potential to be about much more than just nuclear.
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Sold MDLZ,NOMD, DOM. I want to lean more into high growth stocks with great balance sheet and really great businesses in the future.
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Well that's my point exactly.....we left the negotiating table in Feb in frustration to get what we want via militarily force.....to only end up where we started back at the negotiating table talking about the same stuff as before (i.e. the military campaign/blockade didn't conclude with deal but with a negotiation).....it really speaks to a military campaign that fundamentally failed to change the calculus on the ground. I mean let's wait and see the details on whats on the table now re:nuclear vs. the Feb Geneva baseline - however all reporting suggests essentially no incrementalism versus what could have been signed in Geneva with serious changes to status quo ante in the region that I've discussed before which essentially boils down to Iran's strategic & relative power in the region enhanced via the SOH control/deterrent demonstration, the illusion of the US security umbrella in the region degraded such that stakeholders there are inevitably going to hedge their tail risk via side deals with Tehran and broadly speaking if you believed the Islamic revolution was slowly failing inside Iran (some evidence of that) I can make an argument here that Epic Fury has breathed new life into the theocracy morphing it into a military junta (with $300bn soon to disburse). Not over till the nuclear deal fat lady sings........but the juice was not worth the squeeze here and that's being kind. Its looking like the blunder of blunders here in T2.
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The Monty Python Black Knight speaks.. @dwy000 Ayatollah dead Half the IRGC leaders dead Air defenses destroyed Air Force destroyed Navy destroyed Nuclear facilities destroyed Arms manufacturing destroyed Currency worthless Inflation 100%+ Iran is in fine shape
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Hard to respond when someone contends that an appropriate answer to "Death to America" is............................nothing.
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If the evidence fits! There is literally nothing Trump could do that you would claim is bad. Tell me, do you still support the caps on overdraft fees that Trump removed? Cult.
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Back to Whoppner! LOL!!!!!!
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What a cult!!! The fact that our current best option is vastly worse than having done nothing and youre tyring to hold it up as a win just shows how deeply the cult runs. We are going to release $bns, set up a $300bn fund for them, agree to get out of dodge, give up and reverse all sanctions and it has cost us $25bn and multiple lives in exchange for absolutely nothing - and youre spinning this as a win. Wow.
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I will be engineering an AI version of myself, not so different than Zuckerberg's clone. That way, the site will keep running long after I'm gone. The new AI clone will be able to scrape the site and provide you all the information you need when you do a search. It will be so amazing, that you won't be able to tell the difference between the clone and myself. You may actually be speaking to it right now. My body will become one with the COBF website. Like Fairfax and Berkshire, the site is built to last for 100 years! The new clone will have one differentiating feature that many of you will love...it will never put "Cheers!" on the end of every post!
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So evidently your preferred "solution" was that of our friends and neighbors to the North and East - bury your head in the sand and ignore the problem. Thank goodness we have a President and Administration who thinks differently. But keep on exercising your right as an American to keep on criticizing!
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My thinking is similar. They are unlikely to make 15% with this investment but if they establish themselves as reliable partners for retiring owners of good assets with steady returns, they might be able to do the kind of deals Buffett wished he could do but which Berkshire had become too big for. Fairfax can stay small for longer as Watsa has got the Singleton buyback religion far earlier than Buffett did, and this could be a competitive advantage for Fairfax.
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Imagine how horrible you would feel if you live in Iran where your currency is worthless and you are operating on a barter economy - with no friends to speak of coming to your rescue. Here in the US, nothing has changed, except libtards losing their minds and cheering on Iran.
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I dont have a better solution. Im not a middle east expert. But as an American Im very much allowed to opine on how utterly horrible and embarrassing this solution is. And the fact that this might be the best option only reiterates how incompetent the administration who painted us into this corner is.
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So, first of all, Holcim had to do it. What I think is incremental is that Holcim is planning to tender for ALL of the shares. Depending on the exchange rate, around $13 per ADR, however I wonder whether the local pension funds may ask for a higher price given the incredible Q1 results, and Holcim's statements at an investor conference (according to a research report that I read) that the synergies will be higher than forecast.
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Still waiting for your better idea as to how to solve the Iran problem. Monday morning quarterbacks are worth what they're paid.
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We are not "paying" them is a technicality. We are releasing restricted funds back them. From their perspective they are receiving $bns of dollars for just coming to the table. The fact that we are arguing over how terrible this is and whether there are "better ideas" for a situation that we should not even be in is ridiculous. Its mind boggling incompetence.
- Today
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There is some engineering required because there is Cloudflare in front of CoBF (i.e., your standard python packages will likely fail). If @Parsad permits, I can share the code but here is an example of CPNG thread I just pulled down. I added the screenshot of your chat so you see that I just did it.
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I agree and as stated multiple times, would prefer the military approach. But as you know full well, politics is what drives this.
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Vance expressly stated that we (the US) are not paying them. Well see. I take it you don't have any better ideas and you're back to your old self. Personally, I'd prefer the military approach and not negotiate with them at all. But if we have to negotiate, this is the way its done.
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Disagree - if you are truly in the driving seat with all the leverage and your opponent is on its knees.....you start with bombing (as we did), you proceed to a blockade of the blockade and put your opponent more pressure (as we did).....and all that only ends with the nuclear deal signed with a bow on it. In any negotiation with supposed asymmetry in leverage/power and where you've spent $100bn and not insignificant chaos and disruption to create leverage.....you do not walk away with MOU, you walk away with deal. You walk away with an MOU IMO if all your leverage talk, defeated talk was bullshit and your opponent imposed a form of leverage and power over you that made you tap out with an MOU versus a deal.
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We got them to the table????? Thats considered a win now? The US, the world's largest super power, attacks a country and then has to pay them - not to give anything up, just simply to come to the table. Who cares if its a lump sum or over time. We are paying a country we attacked to talk to us. Not to mention what we want to talk about is how much more we will give them to simply go back to where things were 3 months ago! Sooooo embarrassing. This is beyond capitulation. The incompetence of this administration just cant find a bottom.
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@Txvestor, I get a lot of pushback on my 'New Fairfax' thesis. They went from being a sub par hitter for many years. And then out of nowhere they have become the best hitter for years. Yes, that could be ascribed to luck. But the timeframe is too long and the number of transactions is too large. My view is they became a much better hitter because they changed their approach. Also, when I look at each investment (I like to get into the weeds)... I see a very consistent theme playing out. I think the 'optimize operations' theme is not widely understood or appreciated. This is right out of the Singleton playbook (and Buffett's... he likely lifted it from Singleton). Fairfax's holdings were a mess pre-2018 (in terms of being well run companies). Fast forward to today.. the exact opposite.
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We've got them to the table. You're focusing on the wrong thing entirely. Seriously doubt that they get the full proceeds in one lump sum and so what? Do you have any better ideas?
