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I’ve really only invested on my own for the last decade or two, and the broker I use in the States really limits my ability to look outside to companies traded on other countries’ stock exchanges, unless their shares can be purchased over the counter such as with Fairfax. So for me, Buffett and Prem have been my back door into shares of companies traded on foreign exchanges. Eurobank was one small exception for a while…I was able to pick up some shares over the counter until that avenue was closed for me…. So I can only imagine what it must have been like to see companies selling for low single digit PE ratios. I had a few good buys on some good companies right after the 2008 Financial Crisis that I picked up a bit under 10 PE’s , some of which would have exceeded 10 baggers if I’d held onto them until today, but when a number of them doubled or tripled over a few years, I bailed out and redeployed elsewhere. Not sure if I’ll see a 25 bagger in the time I have left, but given Fairfax’s prospects, I should see it or more on at least a few of my Fairfax shares that I purchased years ago, which are 5 baggers currently. Could conceivably get there in the next ten years or so with a little help from a multiple expansion!

While „If it sounds to be too good, it probably is“, is a really good advice, Metlen for me personally is a reminder, that it can always be the other way around: When the greek crisis kicked in, the average PE ratio of the greek stock market was 3 or 4. So I checked a lot of greek stocks back than, and Mytilineos (that was the name of Metlen around 2012), seemed a good company - but I never bought it! That would have been around a 25 bagger since 2012 until today. So I was thumb sucking. I saw that. I just didn’t pull the trigger. I saw a lot of Greek companies being dirt cheap; but I was too cautious. I always thought about, what would happen, if the greek state as a whole would fail or would slip into getting a socialist state - could I really oversee that? So I held Biffetts „Don‘t loose money“ and the „if it’s too good to be true“ higher. I was wrong! But not everything was bad: I was interested in Fairfax that time anyway, and I saw Prem investing Mytilineos. So it kind of brought me to thinking more about Fairfax and investing more into it. Prems way of thinking resonated a lot with me. More than Buffetts or Gayners. I found a lot of other cheap European stocks outside of Greece at that time, but Prem invested in some Greek and I think Irish stocks, which I thought about. It was really amazing for me: Nobody thougt or wrote about any of those cheap European stocks, I thought about; and noone invested into them. Noone - but Prem! So I myself invested in other micro caps without that political risk and did really good anyway, beating the S&P500 by double digit percentages for 2 or three years after tax (and you pay 27% taxes in Germany…). But than I decided to head more into the direction of longterm investing; I was bad with the timing, especially regarding Fairfax, but MKL and BRK had better times before as well. Staying the course with a mix of hard value investing and Momentum my results would have been really better. But I am an amateur investor and at that time, I wanted to have more time for my spouse, life, instead of sitting hours and hours in the evening after work, trying to find informations about micro caps (some interesting stocks just gave investor relations information i greek language…). Anyway, another thought, I always have: I think Prem wasn’t doing all that bad with his investment decisions in what we call „the lost decade“ today. That was not black and now it’s white. Altogether It was the darker side of grey, but the low interest rates weren’t helping the businesses with a moat, but the growth stocks. Today Prems investments are more on the brighter side of grey; but still, there was this other macro layer, and that shifted from dark to white today.

How can open-source and open-weight LLMs not win in the long run, given that we are already tinkering with this level of self-censorship in commercial models at this early stage? Unless perhaps they simply get banned at some point?

Really enjoyable so far. I did notice something jarring at the 10:45 mark. Metlen Energy is described as being incredibly cheap at a PE ratio of 0.20. The host indicated he thought that must be a mistake so he had to check on whether it was true. I looked at the stock quote from the London Stock Exchange in Yahoo Finance, and sure enough the PE ratio was listed as 0.2 there. However, the market cap is about $6.2 billion, and the TTM earnings are $315 million. So it is a mistake. The true PE ratio should be displayed as 20.0 not 0.20. Reminds me of the advice that if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. And a 0.20 PE ratio certainly sounds too good to be true.

A new video discussing Fairfax:

Wow. The "too dangerous to use" Fable refuses to tell me why "What are you listening to" by Chris Stapleton is pure genius lyricism. We're about 3.50 GW away from AGI. Can't wait for Dario to whine at the White House on how AI quoting lyrics of a country song would be detrimental to the western civilization.

We're also inclined to the Republicans taking 2028, but primarily 'cause the Democrats are so bad, and the Republican leader will be other than Trump (term limits). Canada's last federal election should have been won by the Conservatives, who were 20+ % ahead at one point; solely 'cause the sitting prime minister was so hated. Trudeau got replaced by a better alternative (Carney), the Conservatives couldn't adapt, and lost the election to a Liberal minority government. Better for all if both sides raise their game, but one doesn't have to raise the bar much, when the opposition is truly awful. SD

We've had a very good 2Q here at Tegridy. Please refer to the document below for our 2Q26 Letter. Tegridy Value LP 2Q26 Letter.pdf

So without reform you think the 2028 election will be corrupt and said corruption will/could sway the election result?

That’s always how it’s been. That’s why Harris/Biden 2 got smoked. That’s why Obama was elected. And that’s how it should be. And frankly, Trump deserves some penalizing for getting duped by Israel into a prolonged Iran conflict that’s negatively impacted things as well.

For sure. Same reason the environmentalist have burned down California. You can't clear dead trees and have to send your gigantic snowmelt from the Sierra Nevadas to the ocean, instead of focusing on fire prevention by filling your reservoirs and clearing your nuclear underbrush. You gotta save those endangered beetles and delta smelt... These people have shit for brains.

IF the economy is solid, I do think 2028 election goes to Republicans - reform or not. IF the economy is rough (Trump economic plan fails to deliver) and no election reform - we're toast. Bad economy, with election reform, like we lose. Trump economy must deliver to win basically. Promises to the middle/working class have to materialize. Foreign policy won't matter unless there is a disaster like hundreds killed in Iran.

Cubs, the only thing that stands out in your list us the 2028 election. Seems you're already accepting that a loss is only likely if there is no election reform (implying loss=fraud). Am I interpreting your post correctly?

Oh yea, it’s atrocious how these scrubs in otherwise rural areas, get to throw tantrums and basically derail third parties from rightfully using their own property. I think there should be some law where if you want to oppose someone else’s project, you should at a minimum be willing to make a fair market value offer for the property. Otherwise you’re just a grifter looking to control someone else’s belonging.

I just gave you all the document requirements direct from the Texas and Florida Departments. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/w2w/index.htm https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/19406-political-posts/page/1079/#findComment-691725

Beautiful. I've always enjoyed your comments and perhaps now have a better appreciation of your investing strategy - ie, hedging/tail risk Don't bet the ranch on the downfall of Orange Boy. Dementia - sharp as a tack Loss of midterms - highly likely, not fatal, just messy Loss of Iran war - very unlikely USA in significant turmoil - no doubt & violent too Loss of 2028 election - huge risk without election reform USA in general - tremendous resilience only with leadership, not apologists The biggest threat to Orange boy demise is the assassination risk - which is very large and persistent. The Middle East will be a far better place with Iran deterred. The momentum is far in Trump's favor as IRGC body count grows. I'd say 85% there. Still messy. Good luck SD

From the respective state's departments of health...which admittedly is not as entertaining a source as our buddy DT!

I thought this was a pretty good article about the growing movement to block data centers in the USA. I know 2 projects, one here locally in the farmlands outside of Chicago where there are protests, etc for a data center. Also, north of Milwaukee- same thing. I think they are going to succeed in sinking the data centers. It's silly and emotional, given the $$ they will bring to the communities. https://amgreatness.com/2026/07/17/the-new-american-industrial-revolution-runs-on-data-centers/

There's no fraud! We can argue all we want but at the end of the day there is no fraud going on. As @dealraker has pointed out, Trump has won this argument by putting a totally unnecessary and irrelevant argument at the center of our attention. We are arguing about fixing something that is not broken because Trump doesnt like that he lost and is seeding the same arguments for midterms that are looking terrible. In the meantime discussion has once again shifted away from the disaster in Iran and the still unreleased Epstein files. We pretty much have the exact same system that @Parsad pointed out is also working really well in Canada. Its working. Really, really, really well. Why are we trying to "fix" something that works? Well...we know why. Because Trump hates losing.

I have to push back a bit on this. There is a modest cost in terms of time, money and research needed to order one from the county recorder’s office where one was born. And of course, the president is trying to outlaw birth citizenship, so perhaps a birth certificate showing one was born in the US will not be valid. How do things work for folks whose parents were US citizens but happened to be born outside the US? Would their birth certificate prove US citizenship? How else does one prove citizenship if a birth certificate is no longer the gold standard? I don’t happen to have a passport. Years ago I wanted to drive to Canada and learned that the US border control would require certified birth certificates for my family in order to re-enter the US. I had to order my own from a county in Illinois and certified copies from the counties my four children happened to be born in. The most difficult to obtain was for my wife, who was adopted at birth in San Francisco. Her record was only retained on microfiche at a state run agency in Sacramento. I had to send a money order or cashiers check for that cost as they wouldn’t accept a personal check and the application had to be filled in and submitted by snail mail. The stated processing time was 2-3 months. The good news was that we received all of these in time for our vacation. The bad news is that I have misplaced my wife’s since then. The legislation will raise barriers to voting, and would seem to impact most those who don’t have the time to research how to obtain certified copies of their certificates, or for whom the cost is material compared to using those same funds to pay for groceries or gasoline to get to and from work. I know when I had six mouths to feed, when the children were younger, that I wouldn’t have prioritized voting over food. This is one of those statistical error type situations where the effect would be to restrict more folks from legally voting than to legally stop those who aren’t legally allowed to vote in the first place. Speaking of which, has anyone stopped to think that in many cases, only about 75% of US citizens who are eligible to vote are actually registered to do so? And not all of these voters do so, meaning that perhaps only 65% of all citizens eligible to vote actually do so in any presidential election. Approximately 25% haven’t bothered to register. So any election that is very close inherently means that less than half of US citizens end up selecting the winner.

Appreciate the compliments. Think of it as 'stress testing'; what is the probable outcome under various (goofy ) scenarios, are we 'agnostic' ?, do there seem to be developing trends, are we positioned to benefit ?. Nice if we can also reasonably quantify the timing, but purely a bonus. Assassination has to be a scenario; low probability, high impact tail risk. Dementia/midterm loss recognition has to be a scenario; rising probability?, high impact, fatter tail risk. Trump loses elections, new folks take over, Iran war ends; % probability?, trend ?. Etc, etc .... We treat 'investng' as a business, no matter what, we win; how much .... market determined. Not for everyone, and not everyone's cup of tea. We're agnostic; but it seems increasingly clear that the US is tearing itself apart, and that the world would be a better place without Trump. While we have faith in the ability of the US political system to put up viable alternatives, and implement the will of the people, the pragmatic man hedges his bets. Ideally, we end up hedging for nothing. SD

You are the best energy person on this board, and likely the best energy investor. With goofy political opinions like this one - good luck with your predictions. Trump IS the most important person in the Middle East as of this year - no question. And Trump's success and popularity in the US is sky high currently - certainly NOT due to his personality, but due to his policies. The list of bodies on this board the last 10 years, calling for the "Decline of Trump" - is truly amazing and makes many look very silly indeed. Good luck with your predict on another "Trump disaster" and how his days are "over". With all due respect to your energy expertise.

Canada does things that make sense, which the USA does not. You don't have crazy fraud like we do. You definitely got us beat. Don't change what's not being abused. The USA must change.

Holy cow. If you don’t have the drive to get ID should you really be voting? It’s a very basic and easy thing to do, even if you can’t read there are literally people and organisations that can get it done for you. All you need is the desire to visit them once or twice.

Agreed, as most will just see the dominating MTM loss from the hedges, and not the incremental FCF from the unhedged production. Unlikely that Q2 hedge roll-off receives any credit until Q3 reporting in Nov. A bit different though for an IPO, and to a lesser extent a CJ; company specifics and low share counts adding lifts . SD